US Deep-Sea Mining Policy Is Eroding Its Pacific Partnerships

Why It Matters

By sidestepping the ISA, the U.S. risks eroding Pacific alliances that are vital for secure critical‑mineral supply chains, while giving China a freer hand to dominate seabed resources.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. deep‑sea mining order bypasses UNCLOS and ISA.
• Parallel permits threaten Pacific Island nations' ISA sponsorship.
• China expands Pacific mineral partnerships as U.S. multilateral framework erodes.
• Pacific leaders demand fair revenue; current ISA split gives them <$400k annually.
• Regional collective framework could secure better terms and strategic deterrence.

Pulse Analysis

S.

government after China’s 2024‑2025 export curbs exposed a fragile critical‑mineral supply chain. Executive Order 14285, signed in April 2025, tasked federal agencies with leading research, technology development, and resource extraction, culminating in the $12 billion Project Vault announced in January 2026.

While the initiative promises a domestic source of rare earths, cobalt and manganese needed for defense electronics and AI hardware, it also marks a stark departure from the multilateral regime established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and administered by the International Seabed Authority (ISA).