USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Builds Above 155.00 Support

Why It Matters

A sustained bullish bias could push USD/JPY toward 157, affecting carry‑trade strategies and global risk sentiment.

Key Takeaways

• USD/JPY trades near 155.70, up 0.64%.
• Yen weakness follows PM's caution on BoJ rate hikes.
• Price above 100‑day SMA, resistance at 156.00.
• RSI at 53 indicates stabilizing bullish momentum.
• Break below 155.10 could trigger deeper correction.

Pulse Analysis

The yen’s recent slide reflects a broader macro backdrop where the Bank of Japan’s gradual exit from ultra‑loose policy meets a narrowing yield gap with U.S. Treasuries. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cautious stance on further rate hikes has reinforced market expectations that the BoJ will tread carefully, keeping Japanese yields low relative to their U.S. counterparts. This environment, combined with a risk‑on sentiment that favors higher‑yielding assets, continues to pressure the yen and bolster the dollar’s appeal in carry‑trade positions.

On the chart, USD/JPY has reclaimed ground above the 100‑day simple moving average (SMA) around 155.10, a key technical support that now underpins the bullish outlook. The 50‑day SMA near 156.00 serves as the next hurdle; a decisive break could open a path toward the 157‑157.5 zone, echoing recent swing highs. Momentum gauges, notably the RSI climbing back to 53, signal that oversold conditions are easing, while an ATR of roughly 1.30 points to measured volatility that favors trend continuation over abrupt reversals. Traders watch the 154.00 and 152.00 levels as secondary supports should the pair slip below the primary SMA.

For market participants, the evolving bias carries practical implications. A continued rise toward 157 would enhance dollar‑denominated carry‑trade returns, prompting reallocations from safe‑haven assets like the yen into higher‑yielding currencies. Conversely, a breach of the 155.10 support could reignite risk‑averse flows, reviving the yen’s safe‑haven status amid any geopolitical or financial stress. Analysts therefore monitor both policy cues from the BoJ and global risk sentiment to gauge whether the current bullish momentum will sustain or reverse.