Who Are the Frontrunners for the Top Fed Job?

Why It Matters

The nominee will determine whether the Fed can maintain independence while navigating Trump’s push for cheaper credit, directly influencing inflation expectations and financial market stability. A politically‑aligned chair could reshape monetary policy and the composition of the Fed board for years to come.

Key Takeaways

• Hassett ties risk Fed independence perception.
• Warsh advocates balance‑sheet reduction, lower rates.
• Waller seen as moderate, less political baggage.
• Rieder brings Wall Street perspective, limited political experience.
• Trump’s choice could reshape Fed board composition.

Pulse Analysis

The impending Fed chair nomination arrives at a crossroads of politics and monetary policy. President Trump has repeatedly signaled a desire for lower interest rates, putting the central bank under unprecedented political scrutiny. This dynamic raises questions about the Fed’s ability to act independently, a cornerstone of its credibility that markets rely on to anchor inflation expectations. Analysts warn that any perception of political interference could destabilize bond markets and increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers alike.

Among the frontrunners, Kevin Hassett offers close alignment with Trump’s economic agenda but carries the baggage of partisan loyalty, which could hinder consensus among board members. Former governor Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish past, now pushes for balance‑sheet reductions and rate cuts, positioning himself as a reformist critic of the Fed’s current stance. Christopher Waller, a sitting governor, presents a more technocratic option with fewer overt political ties, earning favor from Wall Street for his perceived steadiness. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder brings deep market insight and a low‑profile political record, appealing to investors seeking a chair who understands global debt dynamics.

The selection will reverberate across financial markets and the Fed’s internal architecture. A Hassett or Warsh appointment could cement Trump’s influence, potentially prompting a reshuffle of board seats as terms expire, while a Waller or Rieder pick might preserve a degree of institutional autonomy. Investors are watching closely, as the new chair’s policy direction will affect everything from Treasury yields to corporate financing costs, shaping the economic landscape well beyond the 2026 election cycle.

Who are the frontrunners for the top Fed job?

23 January 2026 · Danielle Kaye · Business reporter

US President Donald Trump is expected to name someone in the coming weeks to replace Jerome Powell, whose term as Federal Reserve chairman will end in May. That person will step into the role at a tricky moment. The bank is contending with both political pressure and internal disagreement about how it should set interest rates in the months ahead. Credibility concerns could make the job even harder. Trump has made clear he wants lower borrowing costs and has put unusual pressure on the Fed, raising questions about whether whoever wins the post will act independently.

Trump’s nominee would then go to the Senate for confirmation. Here’s what to know about the frontrunners.

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Kevin Hassett, a Trump loyalist

Kevin Hassett, a long‑time conservative economist and key Trump economic adviser, is seen as a top contender to succeed Powell. A Trump loyalist, Hassett, 63, served as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump’s first term and now leads the National Economic Council.

Hassett has been a stalwart defender of Trump’s economic policies, down‑playing data showing signs of weakness in the US economy and repeating allegations of bias at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Once seen as the frontrunner, his odds on betting markets have fallen, especially after Trump told him in a recent public appearance that “I actually want to keep you where you are.”

His close ties to the president have raised questions about whether he would act independently at the Fed and how much sway he would have with other board members. In a research note, Deutsche Bank economists wrote that Hassett might struggle, at least initially, to convince other policymakers to put aside concerns about inflation and cut rates meaningfully:

“Other officials might be sceptical of forward‑looking arguments that rely heavily on the administration’s policies bringing inflation closer to target,” they wrote.

Even some within the Trump administration have reportedly questioned whether Hassett has the skills needed to effectively take the helm of the central bank. Hassett addressed those questions in a CNBC interview this month, saying that the Fed’s independence was “really, really important,” while reiterating that interest rates still had room to fall.

“The way you’ve got to drive interest‑rate movements is with consensus based on the facts and the data,” he said.

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Kevin Warsh, a Fed critic

Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, has re‑emerged in recent weeks as another potential pick. The 55‑year‑old economist, a fellow at the right‑leaning Hoover Institution who serves on the board of UPS, was also considered for Fed chair during Trump’s first term. He briefly overtook Hassett in prediction markets last month before falling back to second place.

“I think the two Kevins are great,” Trump told the Wall Street Journal in December.

Warsh has been an outspoken Fed critic, lambasting everything from the central bank’s heavy reliance on data to its use of assets on its balance sheet. Since emerging as a contender for the top Fed job, he has called for “regime change.” As a former governor he had a relatively “hawkish” reputation, favouring higher rates and focusing on inflation, but he is now seen as a voice that would support lower rates in the near term. He has argued that the Fed should shrink its balance sheet to bring down short‑term interest rates, though some have questioned that logic.

“He thinks you have to lower interest rates,” Trump told the Journal. “And so does everybody else that I’ve talked to.”

Warsh also has close family connections to Trump’s orbit: his father‑in‑law, billionaire businessman Ronald Lauder, is a long‑time Trump donor and ally.

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Christopher Waller, a Fed insider

Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, recently met with Trump for an interview, boosting his chances in prediction markets. He was nominated to the Fed’s board by Trump in 2020 and has recently stressed that the Fed has room to lower interest rates even further.

Waller, 66, lacks the personal ties that could help propel Hassett and Warsh to the top of Trump’s list. Wall Street, however, has looked favourably upon his relative distance from the White House. When asked about Waller following their meeting, Trump called him “great,” adding that “he’s a man who’s been there a long time.”

While the two Kevins remain the favourites, Waller is emerging as “the more sensible choice,” said Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital. He noted that choosing Waller could open up two spots on the Fed board for Trump to fill next year, since Fed governor Stephen Miran’s term is set to end.

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Rick Rieder, Wall Street bond guru

BlackRock executive Rick Rieder is also among the names being floated. Rieder has a long career on Wall Street, having worked at Lehman Brothers and founded a hedge fund before joining BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, where he serves as senior managing director and chief investment officer for global fixed income.

In that role he oversees more than $2.4 trillion in assets, giving him a front‑row seat to see how the Fed affects global debt markets. He has also served on committees working with the Fed and the US Treasury, but he has a low public profile and limited political experience.

Rieder is on record, in a 2024 interview with the Wall Street Journal, as being sympathetic to lower interest rates. At the time he argued that the Fed had raised rates too high, with a “pernicious” impact for a few sectors, like property, and said he thought they could lower borrowing costs without reigniting inflation.

In a recent interview, Trump praised Rieder, a golfer, as “very impressive,” but it remains to be seen who will satisfy the president.

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In the end, no matter who emerges as the winner of this contest, it may be Wall Street that ends up being the final judge of their success.