Recently Boring Nvidia Reports Next Week. Did We Just See German Green Shoots?

The market landscape this week is defined by stark dispersion and shifting capital flows. European equities attracted record‑breaking February inflows, outpacing U.S. markets and reinforcing a broader rally in the region. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 displayed an unusual duality: over half its constituents sit in technically overbought territory while a sizable minority remain oversold, highlighting extreme sectoral divergence. This contrast underscores the importance of selective positioning as broad‑brush indices mask underlying volatility.

Earnings narratives added further nuance. Walmart’s cautious outlook tempered its recent price gains despite revenue strength, while Deere’s construction and forestry segment surged 34%, propelling an 11.6% post‑earnings rally tied to AI‑driven infrastructure demand. Private‑equity stress surfaced with Blue Owl’s redemption freeze, dragging peers like Apollo and Blackstone lower. All eyes now turn to Nvidia’s upcoming report, the premier AI‑hardware bellwether, as investors gauge whether the sector can sustain its lofty valuations amid mixed earnings momentum.

On the macro front, the dollar remains under pressure against the euro, sterling, and the Australian dollar, with key support levels tested in recent sessions. A notable bright spot emerged from Germany, where the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7—the first reading above the growth threshold since mid‑2022—suggesting tentative green shoots in a lagging industrial base. Conversely, the U.S. housing market stays frozen, raising concerns about price discovery and broader economic resilience. Geopolitical headlines, from Iran‑U.S. tensions to NATO‑related base negotiations, add a layer of uncertainty that could influence risk sentiment across asset classes.