Thursday - May 14, 2026

Brian Seitel opened Thursday’s Dividend Café with a brisk market roundup. The Dow jumped 370 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.7 % and 0.9 % respectively, and the 10‑year Treasury slipped to 4.48 %, hovering just below the psychological 4.50 % threshold. He linked the modest rate rise to higher oil prices—crude trading above $100 per barrel amid the lingering Iran‑related tension—and to the ongoing AI‑driven capital‑expenditure boom that is boosting corporate productivity. Despite these headwinds, the market continues to ride a “wall of worry” that fuels a steady upward drift.

Seitel highlighted two sizable fiscal back‑flows that are adding liquidity to the economy. First, Q1 tax refunds surged to $202 billion—about a 10 % increase over the prior year—injecting cash into consumer wallets. Second, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the IEPA tariffs will eventually return roughly $100 billion to importers, with a third already disbursed. Together, these “shell‑game” refunds act as a modest stimulus, supporting the recent melt‑up. On the earnings side, the S&P 500’s price‑to‑earnings multiple slipped from 22‑times to roughly 21‑times, providing a thin valuation cushion as investors price in Middle‑East tension and higher energy costs.

Turning to the dividend growth strategy, Seitel emphasized that the real value lies in the client relationship, not merely the public disclosure of holdings. While the team shares select ideas on television, the portfolio’s dynamic adjustments—often made days after a broadcast—remain proprietary. He reassured listeners that this transparency does not erode the firm’s advisory edge. Finally, he wrapped up with a quick economic snapshot: retail sales matched expectations, initial jobless claims were marginally higher but still in line, and import prices rose while export prices outpaced them, hinting at a modest trade‑balance advantage heading into Q2.