5 in 5 with ANZ
Wednesday: RBA's Bullock Says March Call 'Live'
5 in 5 with ANZ
•March 3, 2026•7 min
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5 in 5 with ANZ•Mar 3, 2026
Why It Matters
Understanding how oil price shocks translate into inflation and growth helps investors and policymakers gauge the resilience of major economies. The episode’s insights into Australia’s modest GDP lift and China’s capacity to cushion oil price spikes are timely as central banks navigate monetary policy amid volatile energy markets.
Key Takeaways
- •Oil price surge fuels global market sell‑off, Middle East worries.
- •ANZ lifts Q4 Australian GDP forecast to 0.7% growth.
- •Household consumption leads growth; confidence hits lowest since Dec 2023.
- •RBA Governor signals March rate decision uncertain, housing market cools.
- •China expected to absorb oil shock, CPI/PPI rise, 4.8% GDP.
Pulse Analysis
The latest episode opens with a sharp jump in oil prices, reigniting fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict and nudging global equities lower. U.S. indices slipped as traders reassessed the Federal Reserve’s ability to deliver two rate cuts this year, while central banks adopted a cautious, wait‑and‑see stance toward the negative supply‑side shock. Analysts highlighted how higher crude inflates headline inflation but simultaneously drags industrial output, prompting policymakers to monitor the balance closely.
Turning to Australia, ANZ upgraded its Q4 GDP outlook to 0.7% growth, driven by a surprising inventory build‑up and resilient household consumption. The upgrade reflects stronger public‑sector inventories and a modest net‑export contribution, offset by a widening current‑account deficit. Yet consumer confidence has slipped to its lowest level since December 2023, and the RBA Governor’s comment that the March rate decision remains "live" underscores lingering uncertainty as the housing market cools, especially in rate‑sensitive cities like Sydney and Melbourne.
In the deep‑dive segment, ANZ’s China strategist explained why the country is well‑positioned to weather the Iran oil price shock. A strengthening renminbi, state‑owned oil firms absorbing up to 40% of price hikes, and a likely downgrade of GDP targets all act as buffers. The projected impact on China’s CPI is a modest 0.1‑point rise and a 0.4‑point lift in PPI, while the 2024 GDP forecast stays near 4.8%. Energy cooperation with the United States may also shape future oil dynamics.
Episode Description
Oil rises further and US stocks drop as markets fear a longer Middle East conflict and higher inflation. ANZ Research has upgraded its forecast for Q4 GDP out today, and Australia’s housing market and consumers start to soften as the RBA says March’s rate meeting is ‘live’.
And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing analyses how China’s economy is placed to withstand the Iran oil price shock.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Show Notes
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