NAB Morning Call
Weekend Edition: From Dairy to Data: Can NZ Outgrow Australia’s Shadow?
NAB Morning Call
•February 13, 2026•30 min
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NAB Morning Call•Feb 13, 2026
Why It Matters
Understanding the NZ‑Australia dynamic is crucial for investors and policymakers as it signals where growth may shift in the Asia‑Pacific region. The episode’s timely analysis of AI‑related cost pressures and monetary policy divergence offers insight into future market moves and strategic positioning.
Key Takeaways
- •RBNZ over‑tightened, then over‑eased, creating loose monetary conditions.
- •Agriculture drives NZ growth, but land limits restrict volume expansion.
- •Skills mismatch fuels rising unemployment despite labor shortages across sectors.
- •Infrastructure deficits and high energy costs stall productivity, tech investment.
- •NZ can maintain fiscal surplus while financing large‑scale infrastructure projects.
Pulse Analysis
The episode opens with a stark comparison between New Zealand’s and Australia’s monetary approaches. Stephen Topless argues the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) swung too hard in both directions – first tightening to curb inflation, then easing to revive a stalled economy – leaving the country with unusually loose monetary conditions. While inflation pressures persist, markets already price in further rate hikes, mirroring the Reserve Bank of Australia’s tightening cycle. This backdrop explains why New Zealand’s growth, though modestly rebounding, remains vulnerable to policy missteps and global cost pressures.
Beyond policy, the conversation turns to structural challenges that limit New Zealand’s growth potential. Agriculture remains the engine of export earnings, yet the nation’s finite land base caps any meaningful increase in livestock or crop volumes. A persistent skills mismatch compounds the problem: unemployment is rising even as businesses report difficulty filling roles, especially in specialized infrastructure and health sectors. This paradox of labor shortages amid higher joblessness underscores the need for upskilling and targeted education to unlock productivity gains.
Finally, the hosts explore how infrastructure, energy costs, and fiscal capacity shape the country’s future trajectory. Aging electricity networks, limited road capacity, and high construction expenses constrain both traditional industries and emerging tech opportunities such as data centers. However, New Zealand’s relatively low public‑debt ratio and projected fiscal surplus give the government fiscal leeway to fund large‑scale capital projects. Strategic investment in renewable power, broadband, and transport could lower operating costs, attract overseas investors, and diversify the economy beyond agriculture, positioning New Zealand to compete more effectively with its trans‑Tasman neighbour.
Episode Description
Friday 13th February 2026
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
Phil grills BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on which central bank played the inflation fight better — the RBNZ with its early hammer, or the RBA with its softer touch. They tear into NZ’s slow growth, a labour market now showing 5.4% unemployment, population pressures, housing distortions, and whether China’s slowdown or Trump‑era geopolitics pose the bigger threat. Plus: can NZ keep leaning on agriculture, is tech finally a real opportunity, and how do the two neighbours stack up on growth, risks and untapped upside.
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Show Notes
28. The chips are down
14:15 | Thursday, February 12, 2026 | Season 10, Ep. 28
US markets are wobbling again as the AI boom shows its darker side — soaring investment costs on one hand, and the threat of software‑sector disruption on the other — dragging the NASDAQ and S&P sharply lower. Bond yields are softer, commodities are sliding, and the Aussie has dipped below 71 US cents. In the UK, GDP is technically growing but only just, while Japan enjoys a rare week of political calm that’s helped steady JGBs and lift the yen. At home, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter has doubled down on the message that full employment and inflation remain uncomfortably intertwined. With US CPI due today, markets are bracing for whether the Fed’s disinflation path is still intact. Phil talks it all through with NAB’s Ray Attrill.
27. Buy baby buy
15:43 | Wednesday, February 11, 2026 | Season 10, Ep. 27
A surprise surge in Australian home loans has everyone asking whether it’s a one‑off policy quirk or fresh fuel for another RBA hike, while a headline‑grabbing jump in US payrolls looks far less convincing once you see where the jobs actually are. Add in firmer oil on Iran worries, a flat US dollar, a stronger Aussie, and the UK bracing for GDP growth that’s technically positive but barely, and you’ve got plenty for NAB’s Taylor Nugent to unpack on today’s podcast.
26. Weak retail sales ahead of payrolls
13:58 | Tuesday, February 10, 2026 | Season 10, Ep. 26
Global markets are still grinding higher, but the real action is in bonds and currencies, with US Treasury yields tumbling after flat retail sales and softer price data, and the yen staging the day’s standout move, edging further away from the intervention zone. Commodities are drifting lower, Bitcoin continues its long slide from last year’s peak, and all eyes now turn to an unusually timed mid‑week non‑farm payrolls. At home, the NAB Business Survey shows conditions easing but confidence nudging up, capacity pressures softening, and consumer sentiment taking another hit alongside a sharp drop in building approvals. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to unpack what falling yields say about Fed expectations, why the yen is suddenly lively, and what the latest Australian data could mean for the RBA’s next move.
25. Are things too good in the lucky country?
15:09 | Monday, February 9, 2026 | Season 10, Ep. 25
Global markets are in a buoyant mood, with US and European equities pushing higher, the US dollar sliding and lifting the Aussie above 70.9 US cents, and commodities from gold to oil on the rise — but the real story today is at home, where Australia’s household spending remains 5 % higher than a year ago. Will today’s NAB business survey continue to show strong trading conditions and high‑capacity utilisation, reinforcing the question of whether the economy is simply running too hot for the RBA’s comfort? With US markets bracing for retail sales, inflation and jobs data, Japan settling after Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win, and UK assets wobbling on political jitters, Rodrigo Catril joins us to unpack whether Australia’s resilience is now a policy problem.
24. Will US optimism survive a record week for data?
14:17 | Sunday, February 8, 2026 | Season 10, Ep. 24
A huge week of US data lies ahead — payrolls, CPI and retail spending in the same week for the first time — but for now optimism is winning out, with US equities roaring back on Friday despite lingering worries over the scale of AI investment. The S&P jumped 2 %, the NASDAQ a touch more, and the Dow hit a fresh high, while the US dollar slipped and commodities pushed higher, from Brent to gold to Bitcoin. Markets are still weighing softer job openings and rising claims against Fed Vice‑Chair Jefferson’s view that policy is already near neutral, and in Japan the likely landslide win for Sanae Takaichi raises fresh questions about how quickly the BoJ might move on rates. Closer to home, the Aussie dollar is back above 70 US cents and household spending data is due today. The gains of the previous two months are not expected to be maintained.
23. Weekend Edition: Minotaur’s Funds Management by AI
33:21 | Friday, February 6, 2026 | Season 10, Ep. 23
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts.
This weekend we’re looking at Minotaur Capital — the global equities fund run by just two people and a whole lot of AI. Armina “Arms” Rosenberg and Thomas Rice launched the firm in late 2023 with a simple idea: replace the analyst floor with generative intelligence capable of scanning markets, news flow and pricing anomalies at a scale no human team can match. It’s worked so far — a notional $1 million at the start of 2024 would have grown to more than $1.43 million by year’s end — but the bigger question is whether this is the future of funds management, where algorithms and AI agents do the heavy lifting and humans steer the thematics. We talk to Arms about her path from JP Morgan to Atlassian to co‑founding Minotaur, how their proprietary engine finds mispriced companies, why they’ve beaten the MSCI hardly touching the Magnificent Seven, and what the next generation of AI‑driven research looks like.
22. Job slowdown and more AI worries
15:15 | Thursday, February 5, 2026 | Season 10, Ep. 22
US markets slid again overnight as tech stocks took another hit, with Alphabet’s hefty AI‑driven capex plans spooking investors, while softer US jobs data raised fresh questions about next week’s non‑farm payrolls and the Fed’s path for rate cuts. Treasury yields fell, commodities weakened sharply, and the Aussie slipped below 69.8 US cents. In Europe, both the Bank of England and ECB held rates, even as UK inflation is expected to hit target by April and Eurozone inflation already sits below 2 %. Locally, Australia’s trade balance improved, and all eyes turn to RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s parliamentary testimony today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins the show, failing to appreciate the cultural significance of Pascall’s Pineapple Lumps on Waitangi Day.
21. Tech hit, Iran delays, JOLTs today
13:23 | Wednesday, February 4, 2026 | Season 10, Ep. 21
Tech stocks are sliding again, with AMD’s weak outlook triggering a broader rethink on AI spending and dragging the NASDAQ lower. Ken Crompton says markets are questioning whether AI revenues can keep pace with the investment surge, ahead of Alphabet’s results tonight and NVIDIA later this month. Energy is the standout as oil climbs on renewed Iran–US tensions and delays to planned talks. US data stay firm — services ISM strengthened, ADP was soft, and the BLS has reset its calendar with JOLTS today and payrolls next Wednesday. Europe’s inflation eased, the ECB and BoE are set to hold, NZ unemployment rose on higher participation, and China’s private‑sector services PMI improved. The USD is firmer, the AUD is softer, oil is up, and global equities are split between tech weakness and energy strength.
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