A Conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva | Global Conference 2025

Why It Matters

The IMF’s outlook reshapes expectations for growth, inflation, and trade, guiding investors, corporations, and governments as they navigate a volatile post‑pandemic economy.

Key Takeaways

• Global growth forecast cut to 2.8% amid heightened trade uncertainty.
• IMF urges bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements to restore predictability.
• Advanced economies face stagflation; policy focus shifts to growth‑driven reforms.
• China urged to boost consumption, fix property, reduce state intervention.
• Emerging markets like Argentina praised for decisive deficit‑reduction measures.

Summary

At the Global Conference 2025, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva addressed the unprecedented level of economic uncertainty, highlighting the twin shocks of volatile trade policies and lingering pandemic‑era disruptions. She noted that the Fund has lowered its global growth projection for the year from 3.3% to 2.8%, while warning that inflation will remain uneven—persisting in advanced economies with supply constraints and easing in demand‑hit regions such as the EU and China. Georgieva emphasized the resilience built since the 2008 crisis, attributing it to stronger macro‑fundamentals, yet she warned that the shift away from a predictable, tariff‑driven trade regime could impose a costly transition to a new equilibrium. She called for a surge in bilateral and plurilateral trade deals, deeper regional integration, and the revival of structural reforms that many advanced economies have postponed. Specific examples underscored her points: the United States’ fiscal strain, Germany’s debt‑brake reform, and Argentina’s recent surplus‑first policy turn were highlighted as case studies of necessary adjustment. Georgieva also pressed China to accelerate consumption, resolve its property market, and curtail state involvement, arguing that these steps are essential for global stability. The conversation concluded that policymakers must reduce uncertainty to sustain investment and consumption, while businesses should prepare for a landscape where trade rules are renegotiated and fiscal prudence becomes a competitive advantage.

Original Description

Find all Global Conference 2025 Panels: https://milkeninstitute.org/events/global-conference-2025/program

Kristalina Georgieva

Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Gerard Baker

Editor-at-Large, The Wall Street Journal