A Macro Look at Markets During War

Why It Matters

Rising oil driven by geopolitical shocks could push near-term CPI higher, undermining expectations for Fed easing and increasing market volatility across equities and commodities. How the situation in Iran evolves will directly affect inflation trajectories and monetary policy decisions, with material implications for asset prices and risk appetite.

Summary

The ISM manufacturing index showed the sector’s strongest two-month performance since mid-2022, but markets were dominated by geopolitical risk after US and Israeli strikes in Iran. Equity volatility spiked—S&P 500 gapped down and traded choppily—while gold rose and crude oil initially surged as much as 15% before retreating. US signals against a prolonged invasion eased some panic, yet the oil move threatens to break a longer-term downtrend and could feed into inflation with roughly a one-month lag. That dynamic complicates the Fed’s policy calculus as markets price in rate cuts while the central bank remains hesitant.

Original Description

The ISM put up some of the strongest numbers the market has ever seen. The bad news, the US is in the midst of a conflict with Iran and all eyes are on oil, bonds and gold. On today's Macrodose, IlyaS pivak examines how rate cuts could be in jeopardy.

Helpful links:

tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/

FREE tasytlive Newsletters: https://info.tastylive.com/newsletters

FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763

Follow tastylive on X (Twitter): https://x.com/tastyliveshow

#OptionsTrading #DayTrading #LiveTrading #FuturesTrading #StockMarket #TradingEducation #Investing #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy #FinancialEducation

tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we’ll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran.

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request.

tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.