Business as Usual: Why German-Russian Trade Ties Won't Die | The Dip Podcast

Why It Matters

Policymakers and investors should not assume a rapid normalization of German-Russian commerce; persistent, selective corporate links mean sanctions and reputational risks will continue to shape corporate strategy and political debates. Misleading signals from partisan groups could prompt premature commercial or regulatory responses with economic and geopolitical consequences.

Summary

Claims that German firms are clamoring to return to Russia — amplified by a Moscow-based German-Russian trade association at the St. Petersburg forum — mask a much narrower reality: most German trade has collapsed since 2022, many assets were sold or seized, and only a small cohort of agriculture and food-sector firms remain or operate via neighboring countries. Interviewees including a German SME trade official and a UK-based Russia consultant say the association’s survey is unrepresentative and that long-standing economic complementarity, not a broad commercial revival, explains lingering ties. Executives who stayed did so for historical, technical and investment reasons, but overall German interest has shifted toward faster-growing markets in Central Asia and other regions. The narrative of a mass German return is therefore overstated and driven by a few high-profile individuals with deep Russia links.

Original Description

German companies once saw Russia as a key market, built on decades of trade, energy ties, and mutual dependence. But since the invasion of Ukraine, that relationship has unraveled. Exports have collapsed, companies have exited, and new markets are replacing old ones. And yet, a surprising narrative persists that some businesses might eventually return. Is there any truth to that?

DW’s The Dip speaks to Andreas Jahn from the German Association for Small and Medium-Sized Businesses and Russia expert John Lough about what’s really happening inside German boardrooms. They explore the sharp decline in interest, the risks companies still face, and whether doing business with Russia is fundamentally changing, or simply on pause. #dwbusiness #dwdip

Chapters:

00:00 The push to return to Russia

01:14 Behind the "return" narrative

04:18 Russian market: surface view

05:36 Collapsed German business interest

07:05 The “special” Germany-Russia relationship

10:08 The reality of doing business in Russia

13:05 Why companies stay or leave

15:10 Where German companies are going instead

15:54 Conditions for a Russian comeback

18:39 A broken relationship

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