How the Aussie Can Gather Momentum and Push Higher

Why It Matters

Geopolitical tension and potential U.S. rate hikes are reshaping currency, oil, and gold markets, creating both risk and opportunity for investors.

Key Takeaways

• Trump hints at Iran attack, raising geopolitical risk
• Fed minutes signal possible rate hikes if inflation stays above 2% target
• Aussie dollar eyes momentum near 71.5 cents, testing 70‑71 range
• Oil falls 6% on de‑escalation hopes; $80 support level
• Gold loses hedge appeal, key support around $4,000 per ounce

Summary

The segment opened with a macro‑level roundup: President Trump warned of a possible U.S. strike on Iran unless a peace deal is reached, while the newly formed Persian Gulf Straight Authority announced a controlled maritime zone. In the United States, Fed minutes revealed a growing consensus that inflation above the 2% goal could force a rate‑hike, prompting a dip in Treasury yields and a modest rally in the Australian dollar to 71.5 US cents. On the currency front, Zoran Kresovich noted that the Aussie is attempting to regain lost momentum after a period of weakness. Technicals show the pair holding near the 70‑71 cents range, with Fibonacci levels and moving averages offering potential upside toward 7.25 cents if consolidation persists. Employment data are expected to be neutral, leaving monetary policy as the primary driver. Oil markets reacted sharply, dropping about 6% as traders priced in a de‑escalation narrative. Brent and WTI hovered around the $100 mark, with $80 identified as immediate support and $120 as a longer‑term ceiling if tensions flare. Meanwhile, gold’s traditional safe‑haven role faded; the metal slipped toward the $4,000 level, and a break below could push it toward $3,200‑$3,400, reflecting the Fed’s looming rate‑policy decisions. For investors, the intertwined dynamics suggest heightened volatility across risk assets. A renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation could reignite oil price spikes, bolstering commodity‑linked currencies, while any Fed tightening would pressure the Aussie and precious metals. Monitoring geopolitical headlines and Fed communications will be crucial for positioning.

Original Description

Heightened geopolitical tensions, shifting interest rate expectations and volatile commodity prices are shaping trading conditions, according to Zoran Kresovic from Blueberry Markets. He points to escalating rhetoric between the United States and Iran, including threats of further strikes and tighter control over the Strait of Hormuz, as a key backdrop for risk sentiment and crude flows.

On currencies, Kresovic views the Australian dollar as stuck in a well‑worn US$0.69–0.71 range, despite a recent bounce as the US dollar eased. Fibonacci support between 23.6% and 50% of the prior upswing is regarded as holding. In commodities, Kresovic attributes the sharp 6% drop in Brent and weakness in WTI to reduced Middle East risk premium, despite low US crude inventories and record net exports.

For gold, he highlights a persistent downtrend, expecting key support around US$4,000, with further Federal Reserve tightening viewed as a major headwind.,