In the New Middle East, No One Is In Charge

Why It Matters

The fragmentation raises the risk of wider, harder-to-manage confrontations and complicates diplomacy and security guarantees in a strategically vital region; economic shifts from declining oil revenues will further alter alliances and incentives for conflict or cooperation.

Summary

Former Jordanian foreign minister Marwan Washer argues that the post–Oct. 7 Middle East is more fractured, not renewed: multiple state and nonstate actors (Hamas, Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Gulf states) operate without a single power able to organize or resolve disputes. He says the conflict underscored that the Palestinian issue cannot be bypassed and highlighted deep Gulf splits over how to handle Iran, the US and Israel. Iran remains a resilient, proxy-driven force that cannot be easily decapitated, while calls grow for a regional diplomatic security architecture to manage recurring crises. Washer also warns that the coming decline of oil will be a tectonic shift that will reshape regional politics and interests.

Original Description

The wars unleashed by October 7th have left the Middle East deeply fractured—Iran battered and defiant, Gaza destroyed, Israel militarized, the Gulf insecure and divided. And an even bigger disruption lies just ahead: the oil revenues that built the modern Arab world will halve by 2050, forcing countries to redesign themselves.

Marwan Muasher—a former foreign minister of Jordan and now a VP at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace—joins The World Unpacked to make sense of a region in flux. He explains why Washington should get tougher on Israel, Gulf countries may already have peaked in power, and the end of oil could be a good thing.

Like and subscribe to our channel: https://bit.ly/38sljlH

Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/in-the-new-middle-east-no-one-is-in-charge

Host:

Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman

Guest:

Marwan Muasher: https://x.com/MarwanMuasher

Chapters:

00:00 What is going on in the Middle East today?

03:33 The Iran War and the other hotspots

13:38 Diplomacy in a Fragmented Region

16:24 The Abraham Accords After October 7

20:50 Is the Two-State Solution Dead?

32:49 Can the U.S. Still Shape the Conflict?

40:20 The Future of Palestinian Leadership

47:56 Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Gulf Politics

51:55 The Coming Post-Oil Middle East

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace generates strategic ideas and independent analysis, supports diplomacy, and trains the next generation of international scholar-practitioners to help countries and institutions take on the most difficult global problems and advance peace.

Visit our website: https://carnegieendowment.org/

Follow us on X: https://x.com/CarnegieEndow

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/carnegieendow/