Iran at War with Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour

Why It Matters

Iran’s internal instability and diplomatic isolation create flashpoints that could reshape Middle‑East geopolitics and global energy markets, making any shift toward US engagement a pivotal strategic development.

Key Takeaways

• Regime fears revolt, eyes Khamenei’s eventual death
• 90% oil sold to China at deep discounts
• Chinese and Russian goals in Iran increasingly misaligned
• Public sees US rapprochement as economic lifeline
• Internal elite uncertainty hampers coherent foreign policy

Pulse Analysis

Iran’s internal power calculus is at a tipping point. The aging Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remains a unifying yet increasingly symbolic figure, while factions within the Revolutionary Guard and the broader elite quietly calculate the timing of a post‑Khamenei order. This generational shift fuels a paradox: the regime knows its current model is untenable, yet the specter of mass unrest forces it to cling to the status quo, limiting bold policy moves and deepening domestic uncertainty.

Economically, Iran’s isolation is stark. Sanctions have pushed Tehran to rely almost entirely on China for oil exports, with roughly 90% of its crude sold at heavily discounted rates. While this relationship provides a lifeline, Beijing’s strategic patience is waning, and Moscow’s interests are diverging, reflecting broader geopolitical realignments. The discounting erodes revenue, constraining Tehran’s ability to fund its regional proxies and domestic programs, and amplifies public frustration over stagnant living standards.

Against this backdrop, a growing segment of the Iranian populace sees rapprochement with the United States as a pragmatic path to economic revival. Re‑engagement could unlock sanctions relief, attract foreign investment, and restore Iran’s role in global energy markets. For policymakers in Washington and beyond, Iran’s trajectory offers both risk and opportunity: a stabilized Iran could become a moderating force in the Middle East, while continued isolation may push it toward more confrontational postures, affecting regional security and global oil supply dynamics.

Original Description

NOTE: This episode was recorded before the US and Israel launched strikes into Iran. While events have moved quickly since then, the geopolitical state of play and key thinking leading up to this attack remains relevant.

Ian Bremmer sits down with Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace to examine Iran’s precarious position on the global stage and the forces shaping its future.

At the heart of the discussion is the regime’s internal fragility. Sadjadpour explains that many inside Iran, including elements of the Revolutionary Guards, are “waiting for Ayatollah Khamenei to die,” while the status quo continues largely unchallenged because the risks of internal revolt are too high. Almost everyone inside both the society and the regime understands that “this status quo is not tenable,” he says.

The conversation also explores Iran’s isolation in the international arena. While 90% of its oil goes to China at deep discounts, Sadjadpour points out that Chinese and Russian interests in Iran diverge sharply. Despite the pressures at home and abroad, Sadjadpour argues that many ordinary Iranians recognize that reconciliation with the United States is essential if the country is ever to realize its enormous potential.

From leadership uncertainty to global isolation, Bremmer and Sadjadpour explore the delicate balance Iran faces today—and the choices that will determine its path forward.

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