The New Geometry of Trade: How Leaders Can Respond to Structural Shifts

Why It Matters

Understanding these structural shifts enables CEOs to realign supply chains, capture AI‑driven growth, and mitigate geopolitical risk, directly impacting profitability and competitive advantage.

Key Takeaways

• Global trade grew in 2026 despite heightened geopolitical volatility.
• AI now drives one‑third of trade growth, representing ~7% of total trade.
• China’s export surge stems from intermediate goods, not just price cuts.
• “Connecting economies” like ASEAN act as supply‑chain matchmakers.
• FDI shifts twice as fast as trade, signaling rapid geopolitical re‑wiring.

Summary

The Mackenzie Live session titled “The New Geometry of Trade” examined how shifting geopolitical forces, tariff spikes and emerging technologies are reshaping global commerce and what executives must do in 2026. Speakers Shubam Singal and Jong Min highlighted that, contrary to headlines, world trade expanded faster than GDP, driven by new deals and a surge in AI‑related exchanges.

AI now accounts for roughly 7% of total trade but contributed one‑third of overall trade growth in 2025, with the United States building half of new data‑center capacity. China’s record trade surplus is increasingly powered by a 9% rise in intermediate‑goods exports, while final‑consumer goods fell, underscoring a pivot toward “factory‑to‑factory” supply chains. ASEAN economies acted as matchmakers, posting double‑digit export and import growth, largely linked to the United States and China.

The panel cited concrete examples: Korean equity markets jumped 70% on semiconductor gains, Taiwan’s Q1 GDP rose 14% on AI value‑chain activity, and Chinese intermediate‑goods prices remained stable despite lower consumer‑good prices. FDI flows, analyzed across 200,000 announcements, are moving twice as fast as physical trade, reinforcing the geopolitical re‑wiring of supply networks.

For business leaders, the takeaway is clear: monitor AI‑driven trade segments, reassess exposure to China’s intermediate‑goods ecosystem, leverage ASEAN’s connectivity, and use rapid FDI signals to adjust footprints before policy uncertainty solidifies new trade corridors.

Original Description

Global trade experienced a massive shock in 2025. The highest US tariffs in generations upended trade dynamics and deflected about $165 billion in trade from the US–China corridor. And the disruptions continue in 2026. What does it all mean for the future of trade—and for the global economy?

In a recent McKinsey Live event, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) Chair Shubham Singhal and MGI Partner Jeongmin Seong discussed the shifts affecting trade, the key geopolitical factors shaping the global order, and the moves leading companies are making to build resilience and create enduring advantage.

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**Chapters**

0:00 - Welcome

3:03 - Counterintuitive insights

8:30 - Key political drivers

13:06 - Forces driving the shift

17:02 - Foreign direct investment (FDI)

20:08 - Navigating the risks associated with geopolitics

27:09 - Practical example

29:28 - Wrap-up