
The shift to Schedule III could materially improve profitability for U.S. growers, making cannabis a more attractive asset class. However, lingering banking restrictions and OTC liquidity issues mean investors must weigh higher risk against the sector’s upside.
The U.S. cannabis market is on a rapid ascent, with analysts estimating a $47 billion revenue base by the end of 2026. Legal access now spans 24 states for recreational use and 42 for medical consumption, a dramatic expansion from a decade ago. The most consequential regulatory shift arrived with Executive Order 14370, which re‑classified marijuana as a Schedule III substance in late 2025. By eliminating the punitive 280E tax treatment, the order promises healthier margins for domestic growers, although full banking integration and custodial services are still lagging behind.
Investors can gain exposure through two distinct pathways. U.S. multi‑state operators (MSOs) such as Curaleaf and Trulieve dominate domestic retail but are largely confined to over‑the‑counter (OTC) venues, where wider spreads and limited liquidity raise transaction costs. Canadian licensed producers like Tilray and Canopy Growth, by contrast, list on major exchanges (NASDAQ, NYSE) and enjoy smoother market access, yet they lack direct U.S. retail channels. Exchange‑traded funds—including MSOS, MJ, and WEED—bundle these disparate players, delivering sector‑wide diversification while tempering the volatility inherent in single‑stock bets.
From a portfolio perspective, cannabis should be treated as a speculative sleeve, typically limited to a single‑digit percentage of total assets. Selecting a broker that supports OTC trading is essential for U.S. MSOs; full‑service firms like Fidelity or Charles Schwab meet this need, whereas many retail apps block these symbols. Limit orders help manage the wide bid‑ask gaps common in low‑volume stocks. Investors should also monitor upcoming state legalization votes and the rollout of federal banking reforms, as these catalysts can trigger abrupt price swings and reshape the risk‑reward calculus for both individual stocks and ETFs.
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