The Down Years
The piece reviews how the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 have fared during down years, contrasting the volatile 2000‑2008 period with the smoother post‑2009 bull market. Since 2009 the S&P 500 has closed the calendar year in the red only twice in 17 years, while the Nasdaq 100 has posted a single down year (2022) and the Russell 2000 a handful of modest losses. Recent year‑to‑date figures show the S&P 500 at –3.5%, Russell 2000 up 2.3% and Nasdaq 100 down 4.6%. The author warns that down years can cluster and a 2026 decline remains plausible.
Bottom Fishing
Over the past year the U.S. stock market has risen roughly 19% while almost 30% of Russell 3000 constituents have slipped 10% or more. One‑in‑five stocks are down 20% or worse, including many household names in software, private‑equity, credit‑cards, fintech and...
How the Stock Market Performs After a Correction
A new analysis of S&P 500 data from 1950‑2026 examines how the market rebounds after 10%, 20% and 30% drawdowns. The study finds that, on average, investors who bought at those lows were up 15%, 17% and 21% after one year,...
Talk Your Book: What’s the Latest in Crypto?
The latest crypto briefing notes that Bitcoin’s price has largely muted the impact of recent geopolitical turbulence, signaling a market shift from pure price speculation toward deeper infrastructure and tokenization projects. Stablecoins are highlighted as the critical bridge enabling 24/7...
Ignoring the Noise Is Impossible
Financial advisors increasingly confront an unrelenting stream of market noise, making traditional "ignore the noise" counsel impractical. The article distinguishes "good advice"—generic, static recommendations—from "effective advice," which integrates durable portfolio construction with behavioral safeguards. Citing Fisher Black’s research and Charles...
Why Do Rich People Still Borrow Money?
Wealthy individuals increasingly turn to debt as a strategic tool rather than a liability. By borrowing against real estate or securities, they avoid triggering capital‑gains taxes, preserve compounding returns, and diversify cash exposure. Newer options‑based structures such as box‑spread loans...
Animal Spirits: Will AI Displace Financial Advisors?
Betterment Advisor Solutions launched an all‑in‑one custodial platform tailored for independent registered investment advisors (RIAs). The service bundles investing, retirement, and cash management tools into a single technology stack, promising greater client capacity and operational efficiency. The offering is promoted...
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions
Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund is experiencing a wave of redemptions, marking one of the sharpest outflows in the private‑credit space this year. The fund’s investors have withdrawn roughly 5% of assets within a few weeks, prompting concerns over liquidity...
Markets Are Now a Beauty Contest on Steroids
The article revisits Keynes’s beauty‑contest analogy, arguing that human psychology still drives markets, but the information age has accelerated opinion‑chasing. It uses the recent silver frenzy—spurred by geopolitical tension, AI‑related demand, and massive leverage—to illustrate how social media and bots...
Talk Your Book: The Three A’s of the U.S. Economy
The latest "Talk Your Book" episode breaks down the three A’s shaping the U.S. economy—asset prices, artificial intelligence, and the affluent consumer. It highlights a widening market breadth and offers a framework for valuing the world’s largest firms. The discussion...