Canada’s Deficit Plan Has Less Than 1% Chance of Success: PBO
The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook finds Ottawa’s deficit will almost double, reaching $72 billion CAD (≈$53 billion USD) in 2025‑26 and pushing the deficit‑to‑GDP ratio from 1.2% to 2.2%. Revenue is projected to slip 0.56% to $508 billion CAD (≈$376 billion USD) while spending climbs 6% to $580 billion CAD (≈$429 billion USD), driven by $68 billion CAD (≈$50 billion USD) in new measures. Federal debt is expected to rise $318 billion CAD (≈$235 billion USD), taking the debt‑to‑GDP ratio to 42.5% and interest costs to $80 billion CAD (≈$59 billion USD). The PBO assigns less than a 1% probability that the deficit‑to‑GDP ratio will decline each year through 2030‑31, casting doubt on the government’s fiscal‑anchor promises.
Canada Taps Leveraged Hedge Funds For Over 40% of New Debt, Warns BoC
The Bank of Canada warns that leveraged hedge funds now account for over 40% of new Government of Canada bond purchases, a sharp rise from near zero two decades ago. These funds finance their acquisitions primarily through short‑term repo loans,...
Toronto New Home Prices Jump As Builders Absorb HST Rebate
Greater Toronto new‑home prices edged higher in April, with a typical single‑family home reaching C$1.42 million (about US$1.05 million) and condos at C$1.03 million (≈US$0.76 million). The gains stem from Ontario’s expanded HST rebate, which builders absorbed by raising sticker prices. New‑home sales surged...
Canadian Building Investment Falls Despite Public Incentives
Canadian building investment slipped 1.3% in March to C$22.6 bn (≈ $16.7 bn), marking a five‑month low and the weakest March since 2024. The decline was driven entirely by residential construction, which fell 2.2% to C$15.5 bn (≈ $11.5 bn) for the third consecutive month. By...
Canadian Home Prices Near Record Highs In All But 2 Provinces
Canadian home prices rose for a third month in April, with the national average climbing 0.3% to roughly $486,000 USD. Only New Brunswick recorded a monthly dip, falling 1.5% (about $3,700 USD). The overall 20.8% drop from the March 2022 peak is...
Canadian Mortgage Rates May Climb As Bond Yields Hit 2010 High
Bank of Canada’s core inflation is easing, yet long‑term Government of Canada bond yields have surged to their highest level since 2010, with the 30‑year benchmark briefly topping 4.05%. BMO attributes the jump primarily to rising oil prices, even as...
This Week’s Top Stories: Canada Sees Vacant New Homes Pile Up, Real Estate Demand Hits 1995 Lows
Canadian developers now hold a record 19,536 completed but unsold homes, a 36% year‑over‑year increase, while 375,000 more units remain under construction. Home prices edged up 0.3% to $666,400 CAD (about $493,000 USD) despite the weakest demand balance since 1995...
Canadian Unemployment Hits 7-Month High As Workers Outpace Jobs
Canada's unemployment rate climbed to 6.9% in April, marking a seven‑month high. The labour market shed 18,000 jobs overall, with full‑time positions dropping 47,000 while part‑time roles added 29,000. A growing labour force of 33,500 workers outpaced job creation, pushing...
Nearly 1 In 6 Canadian Millennials Still Live With Their Parents
Statistics Canada reports that 16.3% of Canadian Millennials aged 25‑39 still live with their parents, roughly double the 8.2% rate for Boomers at the same age in 1991. The trend is most acute in high‑cost cities, with 48.6% of Toronto...
Vancouver Real Estate Prices Hit 56-Month Low, Inventory 38% Above Normal
Vancouver's median home price fell 0.6% in April to C$1.098 million (≈ US$812 k), a 56‑month low and 6.9% below last year’s level. Year‑over‑year, prices are 12.4% off the four‑year peak. Existing‑home sales slipped to 2,110 units, the third‑weakest month in 25 years...
Recovery or Trap? Toronto Real Estate Prices & Sales Rise, But Still Weak
Greater Toronto home prices nudged up 0.2% in April to $944,100 CAD (about $698,000 USD), marking a five‑month high but still 6.6% below the year‑ago level. Existing‑home sales rose 7% YoY to 5,946 units, yet remain 18.5% under 2024 volumes...
This Week’s Top Stories: Bank of Canada Downgrades Real Estate, Mortgage Delinquencies Soar
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate at 2.25% but slashed its housing contribution to GDP by 0.3 percentage points, warning that an oversupply of small condos is weighing on the market. Mortgage delinquency on large loans (over CAD 850 k ≈ $630 k...
Canadian Business Closures Surge, 1 In 20 Shutter In A Month
Statistics Canada reports that 46,900 businesses closed in January 2026, a 4.5% year‑over‑year increase, pushing the monthly closure rate to 5%—roughly one in twenty firms. Business openings held steady at 4.9%, leaving the net active‑business count at 936,200, the lowest...
Nearly 1 In 19 Greater Toronto Rental Units Sit Vacant—More On The Way
Urbanation data shows the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area’s stabilized rental vacancy rate jumped to 5.4% in Q1 2026, the highest level since the pandemic peak. Availability, which adds units with notice to vacate, climbed to 8%, meaning roughly one in...
Canadian GDP Grew, Most Industries Did Not—Credit Rises, While Jobs Fall
Canada’s real GDP nudged up 0.2% in February, marking a fourth straight month of growth, but the expansion was confined to just eight of the twenty major sectors. Manufacturing led the surge with a 1.8% rebound, largely thanks to auto‑plant...