Nearly 1 In 19 Greater Toronto Rental Units Sit Vacant—More On The Way
Urbanation data shows the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area’s stabilized rental vacancy rate jumped to 5.4% in Q1 2026, the highest level since the pandemic peak. Availability, which adds units with notice to vacate, climbed to 8%, meaning roughly one in twelve apartments is empty. Despite the vacancy surge, face rents have barely moved, but 66% of projects offered incentives that cut effective rents by about 13% (≈$280 USD) to $2,525 CAD (≈$1,870 USD). Meanwhile, a record‑high pipeline of 8,984 new rental units is expected within the next year, intensifying supply pressure.
Canadian GDP Grew, Most Industries Did Not—Credit Rises, While Jobs Fall
Canada’s real GDP nudged up 0.2% in February, marking a fourth straight month of growth, but the expansion was confined to just eight of the twenty major sectors. Manufacturing led the surge with a 1.8% rebound, largely thanks to auto‑plant...
Bank of Canada Downgrades Housing, Warns of Small Condo Glut
The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% and, in its April Monetary Policy Report, issued its sharpest downgrade to housing in the 2026 GDP outlook. The central bank now expects the sector to shave 0.1 percentage point...
Canada’s Rich Are Defaulting On Mortgages At 2x The Rate of Smaller Loans
Canadian mortgage delinquency rose to 0.28% in February, double the four‑year low. While sub‑$200k loans have historically shown the highest arrears, the trend has flipped: mortgages above $850,000 CAD (≈$630,000 USD) reached a 0.55% delinquency rate in Q4 2025, more than twice...
This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Mortgage Arrears Up 89%, Debt Outpaces Wages
Canadian banks reported mortgage arrears rising 89% since August 2022, reaching 0.28% of loans in February—an 11‑year high. Household debt hit CAD 3.23 trillion (≈US$2.4 trillion), up 4.5% YoY, while wages grew only 3.4%, widening the debt‑to‑income gap. Real‑estate prices have fallen 21%...
Canadian Banks See Mortgage Arrears Surge 89% From Record Lows
Canadian banks reported a mortgage arrears rate of 0.28% in February 2026, double the pandemic‑low levels of 2022 and the highest since February 2017. Delinquent loans (90+ days past due) climbed 2.3% month‑over‑month to 13,749, marking a 22.1% year‑over‑year increase...
Canadian Real Estate Crash Overstated, Nova Scotia Up $13k In A Month
The Canadian Real Estate Association reported a modest 0.5 % rise in national home prices to $664,400 CAD in March, but eight of nine provinces with published HPIs actually posted gains. Nova Scotia led the surge with a $13.5 k CAD (≈$10 k...
Canadian Businesses Brace For 5 Years of High Inflation: BoC Survey
Canadian firms are now bracing for a five‑year stretch of elevated inflation after the Iran war sparked a sharp rise in expectations. The Bank of Canada’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows one‑year CPI forecasts climbing to 3.8%, with two‑year outlooks...
Canadian Household Debt Outpacing Wages (Again), Structural Trap Deepens
Canadian household debt climbed 0.2% in February to C$3.23 trillion (≈US$2.36 trillion), with mortgages accounting for about two‑thirds of the total. Wage growth improved to roughly 3.4% annualised but still lagged credit growth, leaving a 0.2‑percentage‑point gap. The debt load now rivals...
Canadian Housing Starts Fall As Vancouver Slumps, Toronto Still Lags
Canada’s new housing starts slipped in March, with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reporting a 6% decline to 235,852 units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis. Despite the overall drop, Montreal’s starts surged 128% and Toronto’s rose 33%,...
This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Real Estate Industry Cuts Forecast, Western Canada’s Job Boom
Canada’s real estate sector slashed its growth outlook, projecting only a 1% rise in home sales from 2025 to 2026 after a weak first quarter. Median home prices are expected to remain flat through 2027, with March’s average price of...
Canadian Real Estate Industry Cuts Forecast, Prices To Stagnate 2 More Years
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) dramatically lowered its 2026 outlook, projecting only a 1% rise in existing‑home sales to 474,900 units and a modest 1.5% price increase to $688,955 CAD (about $509,000 USD). The forecast marks a seventh consecutive year of...
Canadian Real Estate Sales Hit 17-Year Low, But Prices Keep Climbing
Canadian home prices climbed for a third straight month, reaching roughly $520,000 USD in March 2024, according to CREA data. At the same time, total sales slipped 2.3% to 38,709 units, marking the weakest March since 2009. New listings fell 4.9%...
Canada’s Soaring Wage Growth Not Reality, It’s A Statistical Quirk: BMO
Canada’s average hourly wage jumped to a headline 4.7% year‑over‑year in March, the strongest rise since October 2024. BMO Capital Markets says the spike is a statistical artifact caused by a rapid shift in the mix of occupations and tenure,...
Canadian Building Permits Plunge, Fewer Homes Planned
Canadian building permits fell sharply in February, with total seasonally adjusted permit values dropping 8.4% to C$12.1 billion (≈US$8.8 billion). Residential permits edged up 1.7% to C$8.1 billion (≈US$5.9 billion) but unit authorizations slipped 0.8% to 24,889, meaning fewer homes. Non‑residential permits plunged 24%...
Canadian Job Market Booms In West, Slumps In East, Gap To Widen: BMO
BMO Capital Markets’ Labour Market Performance Ranking shows Canada’s job market splitting sharply between a booming West and a faltering East. Cities in Alberta and Saskatchewan dominate the top ranks, driven by strong employment growth and rising real GDP, while...
This Week’s Top Stories: Canadians Flock To Variable-Rate Mortgages, Ontario’s Builder Bailout
Canadian banks issued a record $38.3 bn CAD (≈$28 bn USD) in uninsured mortgages in January, driven largely by renewals. Variable‑rate loans now account for 45% of the mortgage market, up sharply from 4.9% two years earlier, as the Bank of Canada’s...
Canadians Face Fewer Layoffs Than Normal, But Good Luck Finding A Job
Canada’s March Labour Force Survey showed a modest 0.1% rise in employment, adding 14.1 k jobs to a total of 21.05 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%, while the layoff rate stayed at 0.6%, matching pre‑pandemic norms. However, the job‑finding...
Canadian Variable-Rate Mortgages Surge As BoC Recreates Renewal Trap
Canadian lenders advanced a record CAD 38.3 billion (~US$28 billion) in uninsured mortgages in January, a 3.3% year‑over‑year rise. Variable‑rate mortgages surged to roughly 45% of new funding, up sharply from a July 2023 low of 4.9%. The Bank of Canada’s October rate cut...
Ontario’s HST Rebate Is Driving New Home Prices Higher Without Sales
Ontario expanded its Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) rebate, removing the 13% tax on new homes up to CAD $1 million (≈ US $740k) and offering a flat CAD $130,000 (≈ US $96k) credit for units up to CAD $1.5 million. Builders quickly incorporated the rebate into purchase prices, with...
Toronto Real Estate Prices Climb As Inventory Remains Near Highs
Toronto home prices rose 0.3% in March 2024, reaching CAD 941,800 (≈ $697,000 USD), marking a second consecutive monthly gain but a modest one. Year‑over‑year the composite benchmark fell 7.4%, still below last year’s level. Sales climbed 1.7% to 5,039 units, yet the...
Vancouver Real Estate Prices Rise As Inventory Hits 13-Year High
Greater Vancouver home prices nudged up 0.4% in March 2024, reaching $1.104 million CAD (about $817,000 USD), the first monthly gain since early 2023. Despite the price uptick, sales fell 2.8% year‑over‑year to 2,032 units, 31.8% below the ten‑year average for March....
Canadian Regulator Secretly Threatens Banks Over Risky Mortgages Ahead of 2027
Canada’s banking regulator OSFI has moved from informal concerns to formal legal warnings that major banks may be breaching the Bank Act by using stale, blanket appraisals for pre‑construction mortgages. The watchdog cites rising default risk as new‑home prices are...
The BoC Rate Hold: Brought to You By the Letter ‘U’ for Uncertain
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing headline inflation of 1.8% and a softening core CPI. Governor Tiff Macklem repeatedly emphasized uncertainty, flagging dual‑shock risks from higher oil prices and the Iran conflict alongside volatile...
Canadian Unemployment Hits Recession Levels, Private Sector Stalls
Statistics Canada reported a 0.4% drop in employment in February, wiping out 84,000 jobs—all full‑time—bringing the labour force back to September 2025 levels. Private‑sector employment fell 0.5% and has shown no growth over the past year, while all net gains...
Canadian Building Intentions Surge, Mostly Government Spending
Canadian building permits rose 4.8% to $13.3 billion in January, but inflation‑adjusted values only reached $12.3 billion, still below pre‑2023 levels. Residential permits increased 1.8% to $8.0 billion yet fell 9.4% year‑over‑year, with single‑family permits up 8.9% and multi‑family down 1.5% amid a...
Canada’s Rental Bubble Moves East: Halifax Nears Toronto Prices
Statistics Canada data shows that while headline rents in Toronto and Vancouver cooled modestly in Q4 2025, the gap with traditionally affordable markets has narrowed dramatically. Halifax’s average asking rent for a two‑bedroom unit reached $2,260, about 84% of Toronto’s $2,670,...
Toronto Condos In Recession, Filled With Supply No One Wants: BMO
BMO Capital Markets declares Toronto’s condo segment in recession, citing a 9.5% year‑over‑year price drop and sales falling 6.4% in February. The market is awash with new units, many of which lack buyer interest, leading to project cancellations and delayed...
Toronto Real Estate Sales Fall To New Lows, Prices Tick Higher
Toronto’s February real‑estate market saw a modest 0.29% price uptick, lifting the typical home to $938,800, yet sales plunged to 3,868 units – a 6.3% year‑over‑year decline and the lowest February volume in over two decades. Active listings hovered around...
Canada’s Rental Crisis Moves East: Nova Scotia Now Least Affordable Province
A Rentals.ca study shows Canadian rental affordability improving since early 2023, yet most provinces remain unaffordable. Alberta is the sole province where average rent consumes 23.4% of median household income, comfortably below the 30% affordability threshold. Nova Scotia now has...
Canadian Mortgage Delinquencies Just Made A Rare, Historic Jump
Canadian mortgage arrears surged to a five‑year high of 0.219% in December 2024, marking the fastest monthly increase since the pandemic’s early days. The number of mortgages 90 days past due rose 4.2% month‑over‑month, adding roughly 520 delinquent loans and...
Toronto Mortgage Delinquencies Hit 13-Year High, Vancouver Quietly Follows
Mortgage delinquency rates in Canada’s two largest housing markets rose sharply in Q3 2025. Toronto’s rate climbed to 0.27%, a 4.5‑fold increase from its 2021 low and the highest level since 2012. Vancouver’s delinquency rate reached 0.19%, more than double its...
This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Real Estate’s Hard Landing, Phone Bills Distort Inflation
Canadian home prices slipped 0.4% in January, pulling the national average back to February 2021 levels and pushing the sales‑to‑new‑listings ratio to a buyer‑dominated 36.4%. CIBC warns that while prices are below trend in Ontario and British Columbia, they remain...
Canadian Real Estate Prices Exit Holding Pattern, Dive Towards Hard Landing
Canadian home prices slipped 0.4% in January to $658,000, the lowest level since February 2021, marking a 5% year‑over‑year decline. The correction represents a 22.6% drop from the 2022 peak, yet prices remain 26.4% above early‑2020 levels. National sales fell 16.2%...
More Canes Than Cribs: Toronto Population Falls, More Seniors Than Kids
Statistics Canada reports that the Toronto CMA’s population slipped to 7.11 million in 2025, marking the region’s first post‑pandemic decline. The working‑age cohort (15‑64) contracted by 0.85%, shedding 42.5 k workers, while the senior segment (65+) rose to 1.18 million, now outnumbering children....