Inflation Outlook: Was I Too Pessimistic?
Brian Romanchuk notes that the 5‑year breakeven inflation rate has edged higher but remains well below the spikes seen after the pandemic and the Ukraine war. He argues the recent oil price shock and Gulf tensions represent a one‑off event that will mainly affect short‑term inflation expectations. Supply‑chain bottlenecks are expected to linger for months, but their impact will be concentrated in goods‑heavy economies rather than services‑driven ones. Romanchuk hints that his forthcoming inflation book will incorporate these recent market convulsions.
Book Comments: "The Deficit Delusion"
John Tamny’s new book, “The Deficit Delusion,” argues that the United States cannot be bankrupt because global investors continue to buy Treasury bonds in massive volumes. The author, a RealClearMarkets editor, frames the debate as a free‑market rebuttal to traditional...
Canadian Inflation Comments
Canada’s gasoline prices have risen to roughly C$2 per litre (about US$1.48) in the Greater Montreal area, prompting the federal government to suspend the gasoline excise tax on April 14, shaving about C$0.11 per litre (≈US$0.08). Core consumer‑price inflation remains above...
Ceasefire Sort-Of Holding?
The Iran‑United States standoff remains in a fragile lull, with direct combat muted but proxy clashes persisting in Lebanon. Analysts invoke a neo‑royalist lens, arguing President Trump’s personal concerns—nuclear fear, oil ambitions, and political legacy—now outweigh traditional national‑interest calculations. This...
Public Bank Lending
The article argues that central governments already provide extensive lending through specialized agencies—EXIM in the U.S., BDC in Canada, and the UK’s export‑finance arm—rather than needing a full‑scale public bank. It highlights major consumer‑focused programs such as mortgage insurance by...
Postal Savings Banks
Postal savings banks, once vital for low‑income workers, traditionally funneled deposits into government bonds rather than offering full‑service lending. The model peaked with institutions like Japan Post Bank, which in 2025 held roughly $1.3 trillion in deposits—about 20% of Japanese household...
Bond And Loan Financing
The article clarifies how municipal bonds differ from bank loans, emphasizing that bonds do not create money while loans do through deposit creation. It walks through a $900 bond issuance, showing how an investment‑bank underwriter sells the securities, deducts fees,...
Public Banks And Municipal Bonds
The article critiques the notion that municipal governments can substantially expand fiscal space by having local public banks purchase their own bonds. It argues that a new bank must first raise equity, limiting its initial balance sheet, and that banks...