Coffee Climbs on Rain Delays, Faces Record Crop Pressure
Coffee futures on ICE rebounded sharply this week as heavy rainfall across Brazil’s key growing regions sparked fears of harvest delays and quality loss. The rally pushed both arabica and robusta contracts to five‑week highs, erasing much of the previous week’s losses. However, USDA forecasts a record 2026/27 Brazil arabica crop, up 14% year‑on‑year, raising questions about the sustainability of the price gains. Technical charts show prices testing the 200‑period SMA near 280¢/lb, a critical support level.
White Sugar: Strong Technicals, Weak Breakout
ICE White Sugar August 2026 futures rallied 2.0% this week, climbing from $438.2 to $446.9 per tonne as El Niño concerns and a weaker Indian monsoon forecast lifted sentiment. The contract now sits just below the $448.2 resistance zone, having confirmed...
Coffee: Brazil’s Harvest Is Taking Control
ICE Coffee C July 2026 futures slipped to 265.6¢ per pound, a 2.5% weekly decline, extending a month‑long slide to 1‑½‑year lows. The drop is driven by Brazil’s record‑size 2026/27 harvest—projected between 66.7 and 75.9 million bags—creating a global surplus...
Cocoa: Weather Risk Meets Surplus Reality
Cocoa futures on ICE closed the week at $3,923 per tonne, a rise driven mainly by speculative short‑covering after flooding in Ivory Coast rather than a genuine supply shift. Warehouse inventories climbed to 2.75 million bags, the highest level in nearly...
Coffee Futures Slide Deepens as Brazilian Supply Consensus Leaves Bulls With Nowhere to Hide
Coffee futures continued their multi‑week decline as consensus forecasts point to a record Brazilian 2026/27 crop and accelerating Vietnamese robusta exports. The surge in supply outpaces demand, leaving little room for price rebounds despite modest inventory drawdowns and higher shipping...
Sugar: India’s Export Ban Reshapes the Supply Balance
ICE Sugar August 2026 futures rose 1.5% to $438.5 per tonne, breaking above both the 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages. India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade imposed an immediate export ban through 30 September 2026, stranding about 1.45 million tonnes of...
Cocoa’s Recovery Rally Faces a Growing Wall of Supply
ICE Cocoa July 2026 contract closed at $3,596 per tonne, a 4.81% weekly gain, pushing the price above its 50‑day moving average for the first time in months. The rally occurs despite a projected global surplus—ICCO expects a 75,000‑tonne surplus...
Sugar Recovery Gains Momentum, but Global Supply Expansion Still Caps the Upside
Global sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to reach a record high, driven by output gains in Brazil, India and Thailand. India has approved its full export allocation and signaled no restrictions, adding further supply pressure. In Brazil, soaring gasoline...
Coffee’s Structural Bearish Shift Deepens Amid Historic Crop Expectations
Research firms now forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop above 75 million bags, creating a generational surplus that widens the global imbalance to its widest in six years. Vietnam adds pressure with robusta exports up double‑digits YoY, heading toward a four‑year production...
Cocoa Market Update, Surplus Pressures Meet Geopolitical Risk
ICE New York cocoa futures swung sharply after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, injecting a short‑term risk premium into a market already burdened by record inventories and a confirmed global surplus. While the May contract jumped 3.7% mid‑week, underlying...
Global Sugar: Record Output Across Brazil and India Keeps Prices Under Heavy Pressure
ICE White Sugar August 2026 futures slipped to $412.3 per tonne as record‑high output from Brazil, India and China swelled global supplies. India has already exceeded its full‑season forecast with 27.39 Mt and plans no export ban, while Brazil projects a...
Coffee Market Hits Supply Ceiling, Bulls Lose Momentum Again
ICE coffee C May 2026 futures slid 3.6% to 289.3¢ per pound, breaking a multi‑week consolidation band and extending a downtrend that began in January. The decline was driven by a convergence of bullish Brazil crop forecasts—up to 75.9 million bags—and...
Coffee: Record Brazil Supply Caps the Recovery and Resumes the Downtrend
Brazil’s record 2026/27 arabica harvest is pressuring prices lower, capping the modest recovery seen earlier this year. Export data show a 31% YoY drop in March shipments, while forecasts peg output at 66‑76 million bags, expanding the global surplus to...
Cocoa: Demand Hope Meets Supply Reality
New York cocoa opened near a five‑week low before Malaysia’s Q1 2026 grindings jumped 8.7% YoY, lifting prices to a one‑and‑three‑quarter month high. Ivorian producers responded by more than doubling April forward sales, using the rally as a hedging window...
White Sugar: Supply Shock Meets Weak Support
ICE white sugar futures slid 5% last week, closing at $413.8 per tonne, erasing a brief six‑month high. The drop was driven by two structural supply shocks: India confirmed no export restrictions and cut ethanol diversion, freeing up an extra...