Cocoa Market Update, Surplus Pressures Meet Geopolitical Risk
ICE New York cocoa futures swung sharply after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, injecting a short‑term risk premium into a market already burdened by record inventories and a confirmed global surplus. While the May contract jumped 3.7% mid‑week, underlying fundamentals—multi‑year high certified stocks and expanding surplus forecasts for 2025/26—kept prices anchored. The disruption also raises forward‑looking supply concerns for Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria, but demand remains mixed, with Asian grindings up 5% versus declining Western consumption. Technical charts show a consolidation range between a $3,031 floor and $3,600‑$3,700 resistance, with managed funds holding their largest speculative short in three years.
Global Sugar: Record Output Across Brazil and India Keeps Prices Under Heavy Pressure
ICE White Sugar August 2026 futures slipped to $412.3 per tonne as record‑high output from Brazil, India and China swelled global supplies. India has already exceeded its full‑season forecast with 27.39 Mt and plans no export ban, while Brazil projects a...
Coffee Market Hits Supply Ceiling, Bulls Lose Momentum Again
ICE coffee C May 2026 futures slid 3.6% to 289.3¢ per pound, breaking a multi‑week consolidation band and extending a downtrend that began in January. The decline was driven by a convergence of bullish Brazil crop forecasts—up to 75.9 million bags—and...
Coffee: Record Brazil Supply Caps the Recovery and Resumes the Downtrend
Brazil’s record 2026/27 arabica harvest is pressuring prices lower, capping the modest recovery seen earlier this year. Export data show a 31% YoY drop in March shipments, while forecasts peg output at 66‑76 million bags, expanding the global surplus to...
Cocoa: Demand Hope Meets Supply Reality
New York cocoa opened near a five‑week low before Malaysia’s Q1 2026 grindings jumped 8.7% YoY, lifting prices to a one‑and‑three‑quarter month high. Ivorian producers responded by more than doubling April forward sales, using the rally as a hedging window...
White Sugar: Supply Shock Meets Weak Support
ICE white sugar futures slid 5% last week, closing at $413.8 per tonne, erasing a brief six‑month high. The drop was driven by two structural supply shocks: India confirmed no export restrictions and cut ethanol diversion, freeing up an extra...
Coffee: A Record Harvest Looking for a Price to Match
Coffee futures slipped to 295.4¢ per pound, down 2.1% after peaking above 390¢ in late 2023. The decline reflects a record‑size Brazilian Arabica harvest, with forecasts now near 76 million bags, pushing global coffee supply to a historic 180 million bags. Vietnam’s...
Cocoa: When Short Covering Is the Only Bull in the Room
ICE cocoa futures (May 2026) edged up 2.5% to $3,245 per tonne, but the rally was driven by short‑covering rather than fundamentals. Global surplus estimates have risen, with ICCO forecasting a 75,000‑tonne excess in 2024/25 and StoneX projecting over 250,000...
Sugar: The Surplus That Rallies Cannot Outrun
ICE White Sugar futures for May 2026 slid about 5% to $435.7 per tonne, after peaking at six‑month highs earlier in the week. The drop was driven by fresh production data showing India’s output up 9% YoY to 27.1 million tonnes...
Cocoa Slides as Structural Surplus Reshapes Market
ICE cocoa futures slipped to $3,165 per tonne, erasing more than 60% of the 2024 peak that topped $8,000. The International Cocoa Organization confirmed a 75,000‑tonne global surplus for 2024/25, the first in four years, while inventories rose to the...
Crude Oil Pulls White Sugar to a 4.75-Month High, but the Surplus That Capped the Last Rally Is Still There
White sugar futures jumped to a 4.75‑month high as crude oil and gasoline prices surged, lifting the energy‑linked ethanol diversion mechanism. The rally is mechanical, not driven by tighter supply‑demand. India’s record sugar output and an approved export programme add...
Brazil’s Record Harvest Pins Arabica While Robusta Finds a Fragile Floor in Tightening Stocks
Brazil's latest forecasts show a record 2026/27 Arabica harvest, driven by unusually benign weather and expanding warehouse stocks. The surge has pushed ICE Arabica inventories to multi‑month highs, eroding the weather‑risk premium and prompting sustained selling pressure. In contrast, Robustas...
Sugar Gives Back Early Gains as Supply Outlook Caps the Market
Sugar futures saw a sharp rally early in the week as rising crude oil prices boosted Brazil's ethanol‑linked support, but the gains evaporated once oil retreated and long positions were liquidated. The market’s focus has shifted to growing surplus expectations,...
Cocoa’s Rebound Still Sits Inside a Bear Market
ICE May cocoa futures surged nearly 12% this week, climbing from $2,888 to $3,230 per tonne, marking one of the sharpest recoveries after a prolonged liquidation phase. The rally was driven primarily by short‑covering and logistical disruptions rather than fundamental...
Sugar’s Bounce Has a Problem: The Surplus Story Has Not Moved
White sugar prices barely moved in May 2026, closing at $407.7/tonne, as futures steadied above $400 after a five‑year low. Despite the tactical bounce, surplus projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27 dominate market sentiment, limiting upside. Brazil’s modest output dip and...