The Coffee Reset: From Scarcity to Comfort
The episode breaks down the recent slide in ICE Coffee C futures, highlighting how a projected record Brazilian harvest of 66.2 million bags is driving bearish sentiment despite near‑term export tightness. Vietnam’s robusta surge and rebuilding inventories in both arabica and robusta further reinforce the surplus narrative, keeping the market defensive rather than opportunistic. While Colombia’s production dip offers some arabica support, it is outweighed by Brazil’s scale and the technical picture, which shows price firmly below key moving averages and support levels around 288.65c/lb.
Cotton’s Technical Lift Meets Demand Restraint
ICE March 2026 cotton futures rose modestly to 62.11 cents per pound, driven primarily by short covering and technical repositioning rather than fresh demand. Export sales and mill buying remained cautious, indicating muted underlying demand despite a relatively firm US...
Wheat at the Ceiling: Is This Rebound Real?
The episode examines the recent rebound in wheat prices, noting a 3.6% weekly gain that places futures just below the long‑term technical ceiling. While global production remains near record levels—841.8 million tonnes—with strong output from Russia, Argentina, and the EU, U.S....
The Cocoa Crash: Is the Bottom Finally In?
The episode dissects the recent turbulence in the cocoa market, highlighting a modest 0.77% price bounce despite a projected 287,000 MT surplus and a 22% sales drop from major players. It explores the concept of "supply ghosts"—beans stranded at Ivorian...