Coffee: A Record Harvest Looking for a Price to Match
Coffee futures slipped to 295.4¢ per pound, down 2.1% after peaking above 390¢ in late 2023. The decline reflects a record‑size Brazilian Arabica harvest, with forecasts now near 76 million bags, pushing global coffee supply to a historic 180 million bags. Vietnam’s robusta output is also climbing, adding further upside, while short‑term frictions such as bean withholding and Hormuz shipping disruptions provide only fleeting price support. The market now tests a 288.65¢ support level, with a break below likely to trigger deeper losses.
Cocoa: When Short Covering Is the Only Bull in the Room
ICE cocoa futures (May 2026) edged up 2.5% to $3,245 per tonne, but the rally was driven by short‑covering rather than fundamentals. Global surplus estimates have risen, with ICCO forecasting a 75,000‑tonne excess in 2024/25 and StoneX projecting over 250,000...
Sugar: The Surplus That Rallies Cannot Outrun
ICE White Sugar futures for May 2026 slid about 5% to $435.7 per tonne, after peaking at six‑month highs earlier in the week. The drop was driven by fresh production data showing India’s output up 9% YoY to 27.1 million tonnes...
Cocoa Slides as Structural Surplus Reshapes Market
ICE cocoa futures slipped to $3,165 per tonne, erasing more than 60% of the 2024 peak that topped $8,000. The International Cocoa Organization confirmed a 75,000‑tonne global surplus for 2024/25, the first in four years, while inventories rose to the...
Crude Oil Pulls White Sugar to a 4.75-Month High, but the Surplus That Capped the Last Rally Is Still There
White sugar futures jumped to a 4.75‑month high as crude oil and gasoline prices surged, lifting the energy‑linked ethanol diversion mechanism. The rally is mechanical, not driven by tighter supply‑demand. India’s record sugar output and an approved export programme add...
Brazil’s Record Harvest Pins Arabica While Robusta Finds a Fragile Floor in Tightening Stocks
Brazil's latest forecasts show a record 2026/27 Arabica harvest, driven by unusually benign weather and expanding warehouse stocks. The surge has pushed ICE Arabica inventories to multi‑month highs, eroding the weather‑risk premium and prompting sustained selling pressure. In contrast, Robustas...
Sugar Gives Back Early Gains as Supply Outlook Caps the Market
Sugar futures saw a sharp rally early in the week as rising crude oil prices boosted Brazil's ethanol‑linked support, but the gains evaporated once oil retreated and long positions were liquidated. The market’s focus has shifted to growing surplus expectations,...
Cocoa’s Rebound Still Sits Inside a Bear Market
ICE May cocoa futures surged nearly 12% this week, climbing from $2,888 to $3,230 per tonne, marking one of the sharpest recoveries after a prolonged liquidation phase. The rally was driven primarily by short‑covering and logistical disruptions rather than fundamental...
Sugar’s Bounce Has a Problem: The Surplus Story Has Not Moved
White sugar prices barely moved in May 2026, closing at $407.7/tonne, as futures steadied above $400 after a five‑year low. Despite the tactical bounce, surplus projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27 dominate market sentiment, limiting upside. Brazil’s modest output dip and...
The Coffee Reset: From Scarcity to Comfort
The episode breaks down the recent slide in ICE Coffee C futures, highlighting how a projected record Brazilian harvest of 66.2 million bags is driving bearish sentiment despite near‑term export tightness. Vietnam’s robusta surge and rebuilding inventories in both arabica...
Cotton’s Technical Lift Meets Demand Restraint
ICE March 2026 cotton futures rose modestly to 62.11 cents per pound, driven primarily by short covering and technical repositioning rather than fresh demand. Export sales and mill buying remained cautious, indicating muted underlying demand despite a relatively firm US...
Wheat at the Ceiling: Is This Rebound Real?
The episode examines the recent rebound in wheat prices, noting a 3.6% weekly gain that places futures just below the long‑term technical ceiling. While global production remains near record levels—841.8 million tonnes—with strong output from Russia, Argentina, and the EU, U.S....
The Cocoa Crash: Is the Bottom Finally In?
The episode dissects the recent turbulence in the cocoa market, highlighting a modest 0.77% price bounce despite a projected 287,000 MT surplus and a 22% sales drop from major players. It explores the concept of "supply ghosts"—beans stranded at Ivorian...