CurrencyThoughts

CurrencyThoughts

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Independent foreign‑exchange and macro analysis with daily updates on central banks, global data, and FX developments by a veteran currency economist.

Another Russian Central Bank Rate Cut
NewsApr 24, 2026

Another Russian Central Bank Rate Cut

The Russian Central Bank lowered its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5%, marking the fifth reduction since October and a cumulative 650‑basis‑point cut since the June 2025 easing cycle began. Despite the cut, the policy rate remains well above...

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Rate Hike at the Central Bank of the Philippines
NewsApr 23, 2026

Rate Hike at the Central Bank of the Philippines

On April 23, 2026, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, its first hike since October 2023. The move reverses a 25‑bp cut made two months earlier, bringing the rate back above the...

By CurrencyThoughts
Equities and Dollar Unmoved by Fast-Approaching War Deadline
NewsApr 21, 2026

Equities and Dollar Unmoved by Fast-Approaching War Deadline

Equities in Asia and Europe nudged higher and the dollar ticked up 0.1‑0.2% as markets stayed steady despite the looming two‑week cease‑fire deadline in the Middle East. President Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, while Fed Chair nominee...

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Next Week’s Menu: April 18-24, 2026
NewsApr 17, 2026

Next Week’s Menu: April 18-24, 2026

The week of April 18‑24, 2026 is packed with macro‑economic events, including monetary‑policy reviews in China, Indonesia, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and the Philippines, and a Senate Banking Committee hearing for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination. Bulgaria’s National Assembly election and the conclusion...

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It’s All About the Middle East
NewsApr 17, 2026

It’s All About the Middle East

After 49 days of fighting, a 10‑day cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon appears to be holding, prompting cautious optimism from U.S. officials. The dollar weakened further, Treasury yields fell two basis points and safe‑haven assets such as gold, silver and...

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Uncertainty Reigns Yet Little Has Changed
NewsApr 16, 2026

Uncertainty Reigns Yet Little Has Changed

Global markets remain jittery as the Middle East conflict drags on, but equity rallies continued, led by Japan’s Nikkei‑225 which jumped 2.4% to a record 59,518—up 53% in just over two years. Central banks, including the ECB and the Reserve...

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Fed Beige Book Highlights
NewsApr 15, 2026

Fed Beige Book Highlights

The Fed’s Beige Book released on April 15 shows a patchwork of regional activity: New York and Boston districts slipped into slight contraction, while Cleveland, Richmond and Atlanta posted modest growth and other districts were flat or only slightly positive. Across the...

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Monetary Policy Tightened in Singapore
NewsApr 14, 2026

Monetary Policy Tightened in Singapore

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced a tightening of its exchange‑rate‑based monetary policy, the first adjustment since April 2022. The change follows quarterly reviews that earlier in 2025 delivered modest easings. MAS cited heightened uncertainty for growth and inflation, driven...

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Predictably Adverse Market Reaction to Speedy End and Failure of Mediated U.S./Iranian Peace Talks
NewsApr 13, 2026

Predictably Adverse Market Reaction to Speedy End and Failure of Mediated U.S./Iranian Peace Talks

U.S. Vice President Vance ended a 21‑hour Iran peace session, after which President Trump signaled a full Strait of Hormuz blockade and a 50 % tariff on nations aiding Iran, especially China. The abrupt diplomatic failure sent West Texas Intermediate crude...

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Next Week’s Menu: April 11-17, 2026
NewsApr 10, 2026

Next Week’s Menu: April 11-17, 2026

Next week (April 11‑17, 2026) brings a packed economic calendar, beginning with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and a series of speeches by Fed officials such as Williams, Goolsbee and Barkin. Central banks in Singapore and Turkey will review monetary stances, while...

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Watching Cracks in the Ceasefire and Rising Inflation While Awaiting Some Key U.S. Economic Data
NewsApr 9, 2026

Watching Cracks in the Ceasefire and Rising Inflation While Awaiting Some Key U.S. Economic Data

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire quickly unraveled as Israel intensified attacks on Lebanon and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted, keeping energy supplies tight. At the same time, U.S. macro data released on April 9 showed Q4 2025 GDP growth revised down...

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Colombian Central Bank Interest Rate Hike
NewsApr 1, 2026

Colombian Central Bank Interest Rate Hike

On April 1, 2026, the Central Bank of Colombia voted 4‑2‑1 to raise its benchmark rate by a full percentage point to 11.25%, after a similar move in February. Inflation has fallen sharply from 18.3% in March 2023 to 4.8% in mid‑2025, yet...

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How Often Do U.S. Stock Market Corrections Evolve Into Bear Markets?
NewsMar 20, 2026

How Often Do U.S. Stock Market Corrections Evolve Into Bear Markets?

Larry Greenberg examines how often S&P 500 corrections—defined as 10% declines—turn into bear markets, which require a 20% drop. Since 1929, 34 of 56 corrections failed to become bears, meaning most corrections are short‑lived. The analysis notes an average 18% intra‑year...

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Next Week’s Menu: March 21-27, 2026
NewsMar 20, 2026

Next Week’s Menu: March 21-27, 2026

The week of March 21‑27, 2026 features a sparse calendar of central‑bank meetings but a flurry of high‑profile speeches from Fed Chair Powell, BoE’s Taylor and Greene, and several ECB officials, fueling speculation of rate hikes later in the year. A slate...

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