Interest Rate Hikes in Indonesia, the Philippines and Czech Republic but a Cut in Brazil
Central banks in Indonesia, the Philippines and the Czech Republic all raised policy rates on June 18, 2026, citing inflation pressures and currency concerns. Bank Indonesia lifted its benchmark to 5.75% after a rapid 100‑basis‑point tightening cycle, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas moved its rate to 4.75% amid rising food and fuel costs. The Czech National Bank increased its two‑week repo rate to 3.75%, its first hike since mid‑2022. In contrast, Brazil’s central bank cut the Selic to 14.25%, marking the third reduction this year despite inflation edging up toward 5%.
ECB Rate Hike – the First Since 2023 but Widely Anticipated by Markets
The European Central Bank raised its deposit, refinancing and marginal lending rates by 25 basis points on June 11, the first hike since 2023. The new rates are 2.25% for deposits, 2.40% for refinancing and 2.65% for marginal lending. The move...
Strengthening Case for the Federal Reserve to Lift Interest Rates
The U.S. Labor Department reported a 172,000 increase in May non‑farm payrolls, more than double the consensus forecast, pushing the three‑month average to 188,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings slipped to...
Big Overnight Drop in the Price of Oil
Oil prices plunged overnight after an Iranian state news outlet suggested shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could resume within a month, sending WTI crude to a 40‑day low of $87.77, down 4.5%. The decline pulled gold, silver and Bitcoin...
Bank of Israel Policy Rate Cut to 3.75%
The Bank of Israel lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% on May 25, 2026, marking the fourth cut since early 2024 and the first since January. The move follows an 8% appreciation of the shekel against the dollar and...
Taking a Long View of the Dollar
Larry Greenberg notes that despite the geopolitical shock of the U.S. war on Iran, the dollar has remained resilient, buoyed by capital inflows that prioritize return of investment. The trade‑weighted dollar index hovers near 99.27, close to its historic 100...
Dollar Edges Marginally Higher, and and Equities Withstand Hawkish Language By Trump
The U.S. dollar edged higher on May 11, gaining 0.1%‑0.4% against major peers despite President Trump’s hawkish language on the Iran standoff. U.S. equity indices nudged up 0.1%‑0.2%, showing resilience amid the geopolitical chatter. Commodity markets reacted sharply, with WTI crude...
Next Week’s Menu: May 9-15, 2026
Larry Greenberg’s weekly menu outlines a dense slate of economic releases for May 9‑15, 2026, covering U.S. indicators such as producer prices, retail sales, and industrial production, alongside key data from China, Japan, the Eurozone, and emerging markets. The calendar also notes...
Last Bank of Mexico Interest Rate Cut
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) confirmed a 25‑basis‑point cut on May 7, bringing the overnight interbank rate to 6.5 %. The move concludes a tightening cycle that began in March 2024 after the policy rate peaked at 11.25 % in early 2024. Inflation has...
Central Bank Rate Hikes in Moldova and Norway
Moldova’s National Bank lifted its policy rate by 150 basis points to 6.5% as March CPI climbed to 5.8%, reinstating the most restrictive stance seen since August 2023. In Norway, the central bank surprised markets with a 25‑basis‑point increase to...
National Bank of Georgia
The National Bank of Georgia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on May 6, 2026, its first hike since a 50‑basis‑point increase to 11.0% in March 2022. The move is intended to anchor inflation expectations as CPI remains at...
A Buoyed Appetite for Risk in World Financial Markets
President Trump halted the military escort of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress toward an Iran peace deal that would dismantle Tehran's enriched uranium program in exchange for phased U.S. sanctions relief. The diplomatic thaw sparked a broad...
A Third Hike in Australia’s Official Cash Rate
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its official cash rate for the third consecutive meeting, taking it to 4.35%, the highest level of the decade and matching the most restrictive stance since early 2011. Inflation remains elevated at 4.7%, a...
Uneasiness Persists Over America’s Decision to Use Military Means to Prevent Iran From Developing a Nuclear Weapon
The United States, under President Trump, launched a military campaign on Feb. 28 to destroy Iran’s underground weapons‑grade uranium and block a nuclear breakthrough. The operation has sparked criticism for proceeding without congressional oversight, an exit strategy, or a post‑war governance...
Factory Sector Purchasing Manager Surveys Upstaged By Fresh Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
World oil prices jumped at the start of the tenth week of the Middle East conflict after Iran reportedly fired on U.S. escort vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude rose to about $105.55 a barrel (+3.6%) and Brent...