April 2026 in Figures
The ongoing Middle East conflict has kept oil prices above $100 per barrel, pushing short‑term inflation expectations higher and prompting the ECB to warn of broader price pressures. Despite the shock, major central banks left policy rates unchanged in April, with only Pakistan and Colombia raising rates and Russia and Brazil cutting them. Ten‑year sovereign yields rose in all five tracked economies, led by a 17‑basis‑point jump in Japan, while equities posted solid gains, highlighted by a 16% rise in the Nikkei. The dollar weakened about 2% against major currencies, and crypto outperformed gold.
Rate Cut in Brazil
Brazil's central bank cut the Selic benchmark rate by 25 basis points on April 30, lowering it to 14.5%. This follows a similar 25‑bps reduction in March, ending a year‑long hold at 15% that began in June 2025. Inflation remains at 4.14%,...
Comments on FOMC Statement and Press Conference
The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal‑funds target range unchanged at 3.5 %‑3.75 %, with only Governor Miran dissenting in favor of a 25‑basis‑point cut. Three regional presidents—Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Dallas’s Lorie Logan and Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari—opposed adding an easing bias...
FOMC Preview
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at the 3.5‑3.75% target range as the Middle‑East conflict drags on, keeping oil prices about 7% higher than in March. Inflation forecasts have been nudged upward while economic activity...
State Bank of Pakistan’s Interest Rate Hike Catches Pundits by Surprise
The State Bank of Pakistan unexpectedly raised its policy rate to 11.5% from 10.5% on April 27, 2026, marking the first increase in over three years. The move follows a rebound in first‑quarter inflation to 7.3% and concerns that the...
Fresh Peace Proposal From Iran as Traffic Through the Straight of Hormuz Remains Blocked
Iran, through Pakistani mediators, has floated a new peace proposal to the United States that focuses on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the cease‑fire, but it sidesteps Washington’s core demand to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear program. The offer has...
Next Week’s Menu: April 25 – May 1, 2026
A packed week of monetary‑policy meetings is slated for the United States, Japan, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Canada, Hungary, Ukraine, Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan, with post‑meeting press conferences from Fed Chair Powell, BoJ Governor Ueda, BoC Governor Macklem...
Another Russian Central Bank Rate Cut
The Russian Central Bank lowered its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5%, marking the fifth reduction since October and a cumulative 650‑basis‑point cut since the June 2025 easing cycle began. Despite the cut, the policy rate remains well above...
Rate Hike at the Central Bank of the Philippines
On April 23, 2026, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, its first hike since October 2023. The move reverses a 25‑bp cut made two months earlier, bringing the rate back above the...
Equities and Dollar Unmoved by Fast-Approaching War Deadline
Equities in Asia and Europe nudged higher and the dollar ticked up 0.1‑0.2% as markets stayed steady despite the looming two‑week cease‑fire deadline in the Middle East. President Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, while Fed Chair nominee...
Next Week’s Menu: April 18-24, 2026
The week of April 18‑24, 2026 is packed with macro‑economic events, including monetary‑policy reviews in China, Indonesia, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and the Philippines, and a Senate Banking Committee hearing for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination. Bulgaria’s National Assembly election and the conclusion...
It’s All About the Middle East
After 49 days of fighting, a 10‑day cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon appears to be holding, prompting cautious optimism from U.S. officials. The dollar weakened further, Treasury yields fell two basis points and safe‑haven assets such as gold, silver and...
Uncertainty Reigns Yet Little Has Changed
Global markets remain jittery as the Middle East conflict drags on, but equity rallies continued, led by Japan’s Nikkei‑225 which jumped 2.4% to a record 59,518—up 53% in just over two years. Central banks, including the ECB and the Reserve...
Fed Beige Book Highlights
The Fed’s Beige Book released on April 15 shows a patchwork of regional activity: New York and Boston districts slipped into slight contraction, while Cleveland, Richmond and Atlanta posted modest growth and other districts were flat or only slightly positive. Across the...
Monetary Policy Tightened in Singapore
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced a tightening of its exchange‑rate‑based monetary policy, the first adjustment since April 2022. The change follows quarterly reviews that earlier in 2025 delivered modest easings. MAS cited heightened uncertainty for growth and inflation, driven...
Predictably Adverse Market Reaction to Speedy End and Failure of Mediated U.S./Iranian Peace Talks
U.S. Vice President Vance ended a 21‑hour Iran peace session, after which President Trump signaled a full Strait of Hormuz blockade and a 50 % tariff on nations aiding Iran, especially China. The abrupt diplomatic failure sent West Texas Intermediate crude...
Next Week’s Menu: April 11-17, 2026
Next week (April 11‑17, 2026) brings a packed economic calendar, beginning with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and a series of speeches by Fed officials such as Williams, Goolsbee and Barkin. Central banks in Singapore and Turkey will review monetary stances, while...
Watching Cracks in the Ceasefire and Rising Inflation While Awaiting Some Key U.S. Economic Data
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire quickly unraveled as Israel intensified attacks on Lebanon and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted, keeping energy supplies tight. At the same time, U.S. macro data released on April 9 showed Q4 2025 GDP growth revised down...
Colombian Central Bank Interest Rate Hike
On April 1, 2026, the Central Bank of Colombia voted 4‑2‑1 to raise its benchmark rate by a full percentage point to 11.25%, after a similar move in February. Inflation has fallen sharply from 18.3% in March 2023 to 4.8% in mid‑2025, yet...
How Often Do U.S. Stock Market Corrections Evolve Into Bear Markets?
Larry Greenberg examines how often S&P 500 corrections—defined as 10% declines—turn into bear markets, which require a 20% drop. Since 1929, 34 of 56 corrections failed to become bears, meaning most corrections are short‑lived. The analysis notes an average 18% intra‑year...
Next Week’s Menu: March 21-27, 2026
The week of March 21‑27, 2026 features a sparse calendar of central‑bank meetings but a flurry of high‑profile speeches from Fed Chair Powell, BoE’s Taylor and Greene, and several ECB officials, fueling speculation of rate hikes later in the year. A slate...
A Seventh Central Bank Interest Rate Cut in Russia
On March 20 2026 the Central Bank of Russia trimmed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 15.0%, the seventh reduction since the October 2024 peak of 21%. The cumulative easing amounts to six percentage points, the deepest policy shift in over two...
Dollar Mixed, Equities Down, Bond Yields Higher, and Mood Remains Fearful
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
Post-Covid Inflation Heavily Influenced by Global Factors
Global consumer‑price inflation peaked in 2022‑23, ranging from 3 % in Switzerland to 85 % in Turkey. The surge was traced to lingering supply‑chain bottlenecks after pandemic restrictions lifted, which outpaced the gradual return of supply. Since then most economies have entered...
Trump Speaks and Markets Follow
President Donald Trump’s recent comments on the Middle‑East conflict acted as a catalyst for a broad market rally, lifting equities across the Pacific Rim, Europe and parts of Asia while U.S. futures slipped. His optimism drove oil prices down 24%...
Next Week’s Menu: March 7-13, 2026
The upcoming week (March 7‑13, 2026) is packed with macroeconomic releases and policy events. Central banks in Pakistan, Turkey, Peru and Serbia will hold monetary policy reviews, while the United States publishes a full slate of data including quarterly GDP, PCE deflator,...
Reflections on the Latest Middle Eastern War and How the Dollar Might Be Impacted
The early stages of the Iran‑U.S./Israel war have pushed investors toward the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. While the dollar is currently strengthening, the article warns that a protracted conflict could unleash currency‑market turbulence reminiscent of the 1970s transition to...
Thailand Interest Rate Cut
The Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark rate to 1.0 % on February 25, 2026, a 25‑basis‑point reduction from 1.25 % and the lowest level since October 2022. The move was unexpected, coming after a similar cut in December and reflecting a revised outlook...
The Sixth Jamaican 25-Basis Point Central Bank Interest Rate Cut Since August 2024
The Bank of Jamaica cut its policy rate to 5.50% from 5.75%, its sixth 25‑basis‑point reduction since August 2024 and the first cut in nine months. The move was driven by a milder‑than‑expected inflation impact from Hurricane Melissa, improved agricultural supply,...
Next Week’s Menu: February 14-20, 2026
Central banks in New Zealand, Indonesia, Romania and the Philippines will review monetary policy this week, while the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Open Market Committee publish their latest meeting minutes. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also finalising its...
Central Bank Rate Cuts of 100 Basis Points in Egypt and 50 BPS in Russia
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...