Powell’s Parting Gift: How One Chair’s Dissents Could Constrain the Next
Jerome Powell, in his final 18 months as Fed chair, deliberately tolerated dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, shifting decision‑making from a chair‑centric model to a more independent committee. By allowing members to voice opposition, Powell reduced the informal power traditionally wielded by the chair and built a culture of distributed authority. The change is expected to constrain his successor, Kevin Warsh, limiting his ability to steer policy unilaterally. Powell will remain on the Board after May 15, but the new dynamic will shape future rate decisions.
Manufacturing Ripples Beneath the Surface
U.S. manufacturing weekly hours worked rose to 41.4, the highest level since 2022, and have stayed above the 36‑month moving average for 14 consecutive months. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the 50‑point expansion threshold in early 2026, while payroll...
Jeffrey Gundlach: Beware the Ides of June | CNBC
Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC the Federal Reserve’s final post‑meeting tone was markedly hawkish, validating the recent bond‑market sell‑off. He expects headline CPI to climb to a 4% annual rate, making any Fed rate cuts this year implausible and suggesting the...
Weekly Market Update: April 2026 - Week 4
DoubleLine’s Week 4 April 2026 market update noted modest equity gains and a rise in Treasury yields following the Federal Reserve’s rate‑decision. The S&P 500 finished the week up about 1.2% while the 10‑year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.3%. The commentary...
Double Embargo? Stocks, Consumers Dance in the End Zone (E259)
DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel noted that U.S. equities edged toward all‑time highs, propelled by a vigorous tech rally and soaring semiconductor demand that also lifted South Korean and Japanese markets. Fixed‑income stayed flat, with investment‑grade yields slipping as...
From Rotation to Reversal
At the start of 2026, the S&P 500 remained weighted toward software and other digital sectors, while energy lagged. Early in the year, AI‑related worries depressed software stocks and energy began a sharp rally, a relationship that intensified through the...
Sherman Says: The Dirty Secret in the Bond Market
DoubleLine debuted its "Sherman Says" podcast with Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman and strategist Ryan Kimmel discussing today’s macro backdrop. They highlighted persistent inflation from energy price swings, tariffs and elevated services costs, which keep the Federal Reserve’s policy path uncertain....
Weekly Market Update: April 2026 - Week 3
DoubleLine released its Week 3 market update on April 17, 2026, highlighting recent equity and bond trends and previewing upcoming macro events. The firm announced the launch of a new webcast series, "Sherman Says," featuring chief investment officer Jeffrey Sherman on April 22. It...
Fogs Lift a Bit, Animal Spirits a Lot (E258)
Risk assets surged the week ending April 17, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to all‑time highs. Fixed‑income markets rallied across the curve, with emerging‑market bonds leading the gains, while the belly of the yield curve saw the most pronounced rise....
ISM Prices Paid Has Posted One of the Largest Two-Month Moves on Record
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index surged 19.3 points over the two months ending in March, marking one of the steepest two‑month moves on record. The jump places the change in the top 2 % of observations since the index’s inception...
Drawdowns & Rallies: Seeing Through a Fog Darkly (E257)
DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Mark Kimbrough dissected market turbulence over the two weeks ending April 10, highlighting how the Middle‑East conflict created a “fog of war” that clouded pricing. The S&P 500 slumped after the Feb 28 war outbreak and surged once a...
The More Important Inflation Rate
The Iran‑Houthi conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp jump in the one‑year inflation swap, which rose 62 basis points since Feb. 27, while the 12‑to‑24‑month forward rate (1y1y) has increased only 18 basis points....
Wages of War: Opportunities Amid Risks
Bill Campbell, head of DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets team, warned that the Iran conflict – dubbed Operation Epic Fury – is injecting new inflation and growth risks into the global economy. He highlighted rising risk premiums for energy,...
Jeffrey Sherman on Oil, Deficits and the Private Credit Liquidity Trap | Bloomberg
Jeffrey Sherman, DoubleLine’s deputy CIO, warned that rising oil prices and energy‑sector infrastructure damage could sustain inflation longer than markets expect, pressuring global growth. He argued that higher energy costs function as a de‑facto monetary tightening, reducing the likelihood of...
Are Oil Tankers Moving Through Hormuz Again?
The Strait of Hormuz, once handling roughly 100 east‑to‑west crude tankers daily, saw traffic collapse amid the Iran conflict, prompting concerns about global oil supply. Analysts now question whether tanker movements have resumed, as the region remains a critical chokepoint...
Channel 11: The Land of Pain - Part Deux
Ken Shinoda of DoubleLine dissected March’s market pain, noting that most S&P 500 sectors slipped as mega‑cap tech and the “Magnificent 7” remained depressed. Energy bucked the trend, driven by a sharp oil price rally, while a stronger dollar and geopolitical strains weighed...
Interpreting Labor Signals in a High-Revision Regime
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly nonfarm payroll reports have become increasingly unreliable, with initial figures routinely overstating job growth and subsequent revisions pulling numbers down sharply. Over the past year, the amplitude of these revisions has surged, prompting concerns...
Jeffrey Sherman: Oil Price Causing Its Own Rate Hike | CNBC
Jeffrey Sherman of DoubleLine told CNBC that soaring oil prices are effectively creating a self‑inflicted rate hike, urging the Federal Reserve to look beyond commodity‑driven inflation and focus on labor‑market dynamics. He cautioned against aggressive cuts to the federal‑funds rate,...
Correction Territory (E256)
DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel noted the S&P 500 is nearing a 10% decline from its late‑January peak, with most equity sectors in the red and energy the sole positive performer. Fixed‑income markets were flat against the Bloomberg Aggregate, though...
Jeffrey Gundlach: The Case for Rate Cuts Is Falling Apart | CNBC
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, told CNBC that the market’s expectation of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts is eroding as inflation remains sticky and the two‑year Treasury yield sits above the policy rate. He highlighted a widening gap between calm...
The Oil Shock May Not Stop at the Pump
The article warns that a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could turn an oil price shock into a fertilizer shock, raising food costs and broadening inflation. About one‑third of global fertilizer exports, especially nitrogen‑based urea, pass through Hormuz, and...
Market Swings Trading Amid the Fog of War (E254)
DoubleLine’s March 13 Minutes highlighted a market caught between lingering war‑driven energy shocks and rising inflation concerns. Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel noted that energy stocks remain volatile while front‑end Treasury yields climb amid jittery price data. Fed funds futures shifted...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...
Stocks Sell Off, Yields Rise, Energy Surges on War in Middle East (253)
The Feb. 28 outbreak of war in the Middle East sparked a broad equity sell‑off during the March 2‑6 week, while energy stocks were the only sector to post gains, rising about 1 %. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, except for a...
Iran Risk Brief: Maintaining Defensive Posture, Vigilance for Disparate Outcomes, Opportunities
The U.S.–Israel air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 have heightened geopolitical risk, creating a fluid credit environment that could swing from rapid de‑escalation to a protracted regional war. DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign Debt team entered the episode with a defensive posture,...
Monthly Market Commentary
DoubleLine’s Monthly Market Commentary delivers a concise, multi‑asset review for investors, advisers and institutions. Each edition synthesizes recent moves in fixed income, equities, credit and commodities while tying them to macroeconomic data and central‑bank actions. The report also breaks down...
EM-DM Convergence: A Secular Trade on Deglobalization
Bill Campbell argues that deglobalization is creating a secular convergence between emerging‑market and developed‑market sovereign debt. While investors remain fixated on U.S. policy, structural shifts have strengthened EM fiscal positions and left DM yields underpriced. This mispricing opens a yield‑enhancing,...
DoubleLine Corporate Overview
DoubleLine’s investment platform is steered by Jeffrey Gundlach, its CEO and CIO, whose reputation as the “New Bond King” and multiple industry accolades have cemented the firm’s fixed‑income credibility. Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman, a CFA charterholder with a quantitative finance...
New Econ on Top for the Week, Curve Steeper Friday on Tariffs (E251)
DoubleLine strategists Ryan Kimmel and Mark Kimbrough highlighted a sector rotation this week, with communications services, financials and industrials gaining while traditional “old economy” sectors such as utilities and real estate fell. In fixed income, investment‑grade yields edged higher, but...
Volatility Laundering in Private Credit
Private credit has trailed public credit since 2022, offering lower liquidity, weaker credit quality, higher industry concentration and higher borrower costs. By avoiding daily mark‑to‑market, private credit managers can "volatility launder" returns, presenting artificially low volatility and inflated Sharpe ratios....
Weekly Market Update: February 2026 - Week 1
The DoubleLine Weekly Market Update for the first week of February 2026 highlights a mixed equity landscape, with technology stocks delivering the strongest upside while other sectors lagged. Bond markets saw yields climb as inflation expectations solidified, prompting a modest...