Weekly Market Update: April 2026 - Week 3
DoubleLine released its Week 3 market update on April 17, 2026, highlighting recent equity and bond trends and previewing upcoming macro events. The firm announced the launch of a new webcast series, "Sherman Says," featuring chief investment officer Jeffrey Sherman on April 22. It also scheduled high‑profile media appearances for Fed Day on April 29, with Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC’s Closing Bell and Ken Shinoda on Bloomberg’s The Close. The PDF version of the update is available for download.
Fogs Lift a Bit, Animal Spirits a Lot (E258)
Risk assets surged the week ending April 17, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to all‑time highs. Fixed‑income markets rallied across the curve, with emerging‑market bonds leading the gains, while the belly of the yield curve saw the most pronounced rise....
ISM Prices Paid Has Posted One of the Largest Two-Month Moves on Record
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index surged 19.3 points over the two months ending in March, marking one of the steepest two‑month moves on record. The jump places the change in the top 2 % of observations since the index’s inception...
Drawdowns & Rallies: Seeing Through a Fog Darkly (E257)
DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Mark Kimbrough dissected market turbulence over the two weeks ending April 10, highlighting how the Middle‑East conflict created a “fog of war” that clouded pricing. The S&P 500 slumped after the Feb 28 war outbreak and surged once a...
The More Important Inflation Rate
The Iran‑Houthi conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp jump in the one‑year inflation swap, which rose 62 basis points since Feb. 27, while the 12‑to‑24‑month forward rate (1y1y) has increased only 18 basis points....
Wages of War: Opportunities Amid Risks
Bill Campbell, head of DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets team, warned that the Iran conflict – dubbed Operation Epic Fury – is injecting new inflation and growth risks into the global economy. He highlighted rising risk premiums for energy,...
Jeffrey Sherman on Oil, Deficits and the Private Credit Liquidity Trap | Bloomberg
Jeffrey Sherman, DoubleLine’s deputy CIO, warned that rising oil prices and energy‑sector infrastructure damage could sustain inflation longer than markets expect, pressuring global growth. He argued that higher energy costs function as a de‑facto monetary tightening, reducing the likelihood of...
Are Oil Tankers Moving Through Hormuz Again?
The Strait of Hormuz, once handling roughly 100 east‑to‑west crude tankers daily, saw traffic collapse amid the Iran conflict, prompting concerns about global oil supply. Analysts now question whether tanker movements have resumed, as the region remains a critical chokepoint...
Channel 11: The Land of Pain - Part Deux
Ken Shinoda of DoubleLine dissected March’s market pain, noting that most S&P 500 sectors slipped as mega‑cap tech and the “Magnificent 7” remained depressed. Energy bucked the trend, driven by a sharp oil price rally, while a stronger dollar and geopolitical strains weighed...
Interpreting Labor Signals in a High-Revision Regime
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly nonfarm payroll reports have become increasingly unreliable, with initial figures routinely overstating job growth and subsequent revisions pulling numbers down sharply. Over the past year, the amplitude of these revisions has surged, prompting concerns...
Jeffrey Sherman: Oil Price Causing Its Own Rate Hike | CNBC
Jeffrey Sherman of DoubleLine told CNBC that soaring oil prices are effectively creating a self‑inflicted rate hike, urging the Federal Reserve to look beyond commodity‑driven inflation and focus on labor‑market dynamics. He cautioned against aggressive cuts to the federal‑funds rate,...
Correction Territory (E256)
DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel noted the S&P 500 is nearing a 10% decline from its late‑January peak, with most equity sectors in the red and energy the sole positive performer. Fixed‑income markets were flat against the Bloomberg Aggregate, though...
Jeffrey Gundlach: The Case for Rate Cuts Is Falling Apart | CNBC
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, told CNBC that the market’s expectation of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts is eroding as inflation remains sticky and the two‑year Treasury yield sits above the policy rate. He highlighted a widening gap between calm...
The Oil Shock May Not Stop at the Pump
The article warns that a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could turn an oil price shock into a fertilizer shock, raising food costs and broadening inflation. About one‑third of global fertilizer exports, especially nitrogen‑based urea, pass through Hormuz, and...
Market Swings Trading Amid the Fog of War (E254)
DoubleLine’s March 13 Minutes highlighted a market caught between lingering war‑driven energy shocks and rising inflation concerns. Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel noted that energy stocks remain volatile while front‑end Treasury yields climb amid jittery price data. Fed funds futures shifted...