‘The Perfect Picture’ Of The Melt-Up Zeitgeist
U.S. equities hovered near record highs as a narrow group of ten mega‑cap stocks—chiefly AI‑linked and semiconductor names—accounted for roughly 70% of the S&P 500’s 19% rally since late March. Nomura’s Charlie McElligott warns that the market’s “right‑tail” crash risk is the only real danger, given the concentration in AI and chip themes. Meanwhile, speculation that Washington and Tehran may sign a 60‑day cease‑fire MOU adds a geopolitical layer to the already fragile rally.
US, Iran Agree To Keep Talking
The United States and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding that extends their cease‑fire for 60 days and pledges unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal also calls for Iran to reaffirm it does not seek a...
On Second Thought…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate for Q1 2026, trimming headline GDP growth to 1.6% annualized—0.4 percentage points below the advance reading. Personal consumption expenditures slowed to a 1.4% annualized gain, the weakest pace since Q1 2025,...
War-Torn: US Saving Rate Plunges As Annual Inflation Soars
U.S. inflation data for April showed mixed signals: core PCE rose 0.239% month‑over‑month, the slowest pace since November, while the year‑over‑year rate accelerated to 3.3%, the fastest since late 2023. Headline PCE increased 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY, the strongest...
Real US Home Prices Fall Most In Three Years On War Inflation
U.S. real home prices fell 2.5% year‑over‑year in March, the steepest decline since 2023, as war‑driven energy inflation eroded housing wealth. The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller 20‑city index showed outright price drops in more than half of the nation’s largest metros,...
Inflation, Hikes And Hawks
The US will release its personal income and spending report alongside the core PCE inflation figure, which economists expect to have risen 0.3% month‑over‑month and 3.3% year‑over‑year in April – the highest YoY rate since October 2023. New Fed chair...
Markets Fully Price 2026 Fed Hike As Warsh Sworn In
Traders fully priced a 25‑basis‑point Federal Reserve rate hike for 2026, marking a shift from earlier expectations of multiple cuts during Kevin Warsh’s early tenure. The change follows Fed Governor Chris Waller’s warning that inflation is not improving and his...
The Worst Consumer Sentiment Report Ever. Again.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index plunged to 44.8 in May, marking the lowest reading since the series began in 1978 and the steepest month‑to‑month drop on record. The current‑conditions sub‑index hit a new low of 45.8, while the...
Single-Family Home Construction Plummets
U.S. residential construction activity slowed in May, with overall housing starts down 2.8% month‑over‑month. Single‑family starts plunged more than 9%, marking the steepest decline since August and the first comparable drop since March 2025. The slowdown follows a March surge that...
Kevin Warsh Versus ‘Vast Majority’
The April FOMC minutes, released just before the Nvidia earnings lull, show the Federal Reserve overwhelmingly warning that the war‑driven surge in oil and commodity prices will keep inflation elevated longer than expected. Policymakers dropped the easing‑bias language from the...
Hope Floats As Home Contract Signings Rise Third Month
Pending home sales in the United States posted a third straight monthly gain in April, with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) gauge climbing to 74.8. The rise comes despite mortgage rates edging up roughly 50 basis points since pre‑war...
Stock Rally Menaced Anew By Inflation, Surging Bond Yields
Stocks have enjoyed a near‑30% rally in Nasdaq‑100 futures since late March, but the surge is now under pressure from stubborn inflation and rising bond yields. Two‑year Treasury yields have climbed roughly 50 basis points in 2026, outpacing the long‑end...
The US Consumer Refuses To Crack
U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in April, matching the headline gauge, and the control‑group index—excluding autos, gas stations, and food services—accelerated to an 8% annualized pace, the fastest since mid‑2022. Despite higher nominal prices for gasoline and groceries, nine of...
War Inflation Triggers Sharp Jump In US Mortgage Rates
War‑driven inflation pushed the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate up 15 basis points, reaching 6.57% according to Mortgage News Daily. Purchase applications rose, surpassing last year’s pace despite the rate jump. Sellers continue to dominate, holding a 46.5% advantage over buyers,...
Eyebrows Raised, Singed By Scorching Wholesale Inflation Report
The U.S. Producer Price Index surged 1.4% month‑over‑month in April, the strongest rise since March 2022, and jumped 6% year‑over‑year, far exceeding forecasts. Energy components led the surge, with overall energy up 7.8% and gasoline spiking 15.6% after a 10% rise...