Venezuela Sanctions, Licenses, and Complications - April 2026
The Trump administration continues its sanctions regime against Venezuela while issuing a new set of licenses that allow U.S. firms to conduct limited transactions with the Venezuelan Central Bank and other designated financial institutions. These authorizations extend earlier oil‑and‑mining licenses, signaling a cautious, case‑by‑case approach rather than a broad policy reversal. Although the licenses open narrow channels for trade, the overarching sanctions framework and compliance hurdles keep overall investment risk elevated. Companies must navigate a complex regulatory landscape before committing capital to Venezuela.
Delcy Rodriguez Is Like Javier Milei but Worse
The International Monetary Fund and World Bank announced cooperation with President Delcy Rodríguez’s government, unlocking roughly $5 billion in Special Drawing Rights that have been frozen since 2019. The U.S. Treasury also issued a license permitting American banks to conduct transactions with...
Five Comments on US vs China -April 2026
The April 2026 newsletter from Boz examines the intersecting dynamics of the Trump administration’s policies, China’s growing influence, and Latin America’s strategic positioning. It frames the region as a contested space on a global chessboard, where shifts in U.S.-China relations...
Cuba, the Oil Blockade, and the Internal Contradictions of Trump’s Policies in the Western Hemisphere
The Trump administration adopted a "hybrid economic warfare" model, deploying naval blockades such as the Anatoly Kolodkin tanker to choke Cuba’s oil imports. This tactic sits between traditional sanctions and outright conflict, aiming to pressure Havana without a formal declaration of...
What Happens to Latin America if the Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed?
The author evaluates three scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz after the Iran conflict, focusing on the most likely outcome: prolonged reduced traffic. A sustained closure would tighten global oil and gas supplies, pushing prices higher and triggering inflation across...
Mexico Economic Comments - March 2026
Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, faces sharp criticism from The Economist for failing to deliver the structural reforms she pledged, opting instead for incremental tweaks. The publication highlights that despite external pressures such as the lingering US‑Mexico trade war, USMCA...
Dropping Bombs on Cows in Ecuador
On March 24, 2026, a joint U.S. and Ecuadorian airstrike near the Colombian border mistakenly targeted a dairy farm instead of a suspected FARC dissident camp, according to a New York Times investigation. The bombing destroyed the farm’s infrastructure and left several...
Who Is up and Down After the Venezuelan Cabinet Shuffle?
Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela’s vice‑president, executed a sweeping cabinet reshuffle, replacing roughly half of the ministers and dismissing the entire military high command. Long‑time defense minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, a key power broker for over a decade, was removed from his post....
Ten Points on the A3C and Shield of the Americas Conference
The A3C and Shield of the Americas conference gathered in Florida to discuss countering Chinese influence in Latin America, featuring former Trump officials and defense contractors. The agenda combined hard‑line anti‑China rhetoric with proposals for a regional security pact resembling...
Colombia Election Notes - March 2026
Colombian right‑wing primaries saw Paloma Valencia capture over 5.5 million votes, eclipsing both Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella. De la Espriella’s early lead proved a prediction‑market bubble lacking grassroots support, and his momentum may soon fade. The governing Pacto Histórico secured legislative majorities...
Friday Reading List - 6 March 2026
The author released a daily newsletter while traveling from Bogotá to the U.S., highlighting a $90 individual and $350 institutional subscription model. The edition curates a dense reading list covering Mexico’s cartel‑fuelled violence, U.S. military involvement in Ecuador, the geopolitical...
US Military in Ecuador - March 2026
U.S. Special Forces have deployed to Ecuador to conduct joint operations against designated terrorist groups. While the exact role remains unclear, the troops are believed to be primarily advisors but are authorized to engage in combat if necessary. The deployment...
Five Comments on How the Iran Conflict Will Impact Latin America
The U.S. military operation against Iran is pulling Washington’s attention away from its newly‑declared Western Hemisphere priority, threatening to sideline a March 7 summit of Trump‑friendly Latin leaders. Latin American governments are divided: Brazil and Colombia condemn the strikes, Argentina...
Milei’s Economy: From Surf the Wave to Kick the Can
Javier Milei’s liberal‑market agenda has sparked a sharp divide in Argentina, with early macro data showing a modest rebound while safety‑net programs crumble for the poor. Supporters hail the reforms as a break from historic boom‑bust cycles, whereas critics warn...
Trump's State of the Union Included Almost 1,200 Words About His LatAm Policies
Trump’s 2026 State of the Union devoted nearly 1,200 words to Latin American policy, far outpacing other regional references. The speech stressed new trade tariffs, immigration reforms, and security cooperation, echoing recent moves such as Honduras expelling Cuban doctors and...