Jassy's Defense
Since Andy Jassy took the helm in July 2021, Amazon’s share price has trailed the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and every other Mag 7 tech giant. In a fresh shareholder letter, Jassy argues that the market misreads the company’s long‑term bets, from rural delivery networks to satellite and drone initiatives. He highlights that rural same‑day deliveries have doubled, projecting an extra billion packages a year once the rollout finishes. The letter also underscores massive AWS capex and the nascent Amazon LEO satellite constellation as growth engines.
Man and Machine
The article examines how Alphabet and Meta allocate capital differently from traditional firms, emphasizing gross‑profit‑level decisions over cash‑flow metrics. It highlights Sundar Pichai’s discussion on compute scarcity, TPU budgeting, and early‑stage AI investments as core to Alphabet’s allocation framework. The...
"Never Sell" Episode: AI Doom, Veeva, Research and Writing
The latest “Never Sell” podcast episode explores three intertwined themes: the growing investor fascination with AI‑doom scenarios, why biotech‑software leader Veeva Systems appears insulated from disruptive AI forces, and a fresh perspective on investment research that favors a judge‑like stance...
Digital Engagement's Fat Tail Risk?
Meta was hit this week with two high‑profile lawsuits—one in Los Angeles over algorithmic addiction and another in New Mexico over child sexual exploitation—resulting in $375 million in civil penalties and $6 million in damages, respectively. The penalties are modest compared with...
Nadella's Flip-Flop
Satya Nadella has pivoted Microsoft’s AI stance from a single‑model, full‑stack approach—leveraging exclusive access to OpenAI’s flagship model—to a multi‑model, modular strategy that decouples the harness and context layers. The shift follows the OpenAI leadership turmoil and growing concerns that...
The Neocloud Trojan Horse
Recent disclosures show neocloud players CoreWeave and Nebius planning $30‑35 billion and $16‑20 billion capex respectively by 2026, roughly a third of AWS's projected spend. Nvidia is repeatedly financing these firms, while Meta has pledged $12 billion for Nebius AI capacity through 2027...
Veeva Model Update
The author has released an updated financial model for Veeva Systems, incorporating the latest quarterly data and revised assumptions. The update follows a series of prior deep‑dive analyses published in September 2024 and December 2023. The new model adjusts growth...
Follow-Up on "AWS: Pre and Post-ChatGPT"
The author revisits his earlier article warning about AWS’s long‑term outlook, sparked by the rise of ChatGPT and AI‑driven workloads. Reader feedback was notably more constructive, prompting a follow‑up that clarifies and expands on the original concerns. Additional analysis, including...
Constellation Software 4Q'25 Update
Constellation Software reported a solid fourth‑quarter 2025, with its maintenance and recurring revenue segment—about 75% of total sales—growing 6% year‑over‑year, an acceleration of roughly 200 basis points versus the prior quarter. Management said artificial intelligence has not yet affected organic...
Notes From MS Conference: Meta, and Microsoft
At Morgan Stanley’s TMT conference, Meta CFO Susan Li highlighted the company’s IREV metric, showing steady ad‑performance improvements driven by AI and larger data pools. She explained Meta’s push to scale data, redistribute ad loads, and deploy large‑language models for real‑time...
AWS: Pre and Post-ChatGPT
Jeff Bezos highlighted Amazon Web Services as a "market size unconstrained" business in his 2014 shareholder letter, emphasizing strong returns on capital. After the letter, AWS disclosed mid‑20s operating margins that rose to roughly 30% by 2021, with ROIC consistently...
Why AI Is Unlikely to Kill OTAs
OpenAI announced it is scaling back plans to embed direct checkout functionality inside ChatGPT, opting instead for checkout flows through third‑party apps that plug into the chatbot. The news sent Booking Holdings and Expedia Group shares higher, reflecting investor relief...
Veeva FY4Q'26 Update
Veeva Systems posted a strong FY4Q’26, reporting $836 million in revenue versus the $811 million consensus. Revenue grew 16% year‑over‑year, outpacing operating expense growth of roughly 7%, which helped lift the LTM GAAP operating margin to a record 28.7%. Gross margin dipped...
Never Sell: MBI Interviews Asianometry
MBI’s “Never Sell” podcast featured a conversation with Asianometry, the popular YouTube educator known for deep dives into semiconductor technology. The episode explored the entire semiconductor value chain, from design through testing, and highlighted the creator’s ability to simplify complex...
Frontier AI Economics
Frontier AI model developers operate under highly speculative economics, with valuations suggesting they will capture strong net‑profit margins over time. The range of possible outcomes remains broad, from modest profitability to potential monopoly power, as illustrated by a hypothetical Anthropic...
