Roblox 1Q'26: Age Check Hangover, But Aiming to Go Beyond the Blocks
Roblox slashed its 2026 booking‑growth outlook to 8‑12% after a Q1 2026 earnings call revealed that the newly‑mandated age‑check feature throttled new‑user acquisition. While daily active users (DAU) and monetization per user remained strong, only 51% of global DAU have completed the age verification, creating a top‑of‑funnel headwind. The guidance downgrade triggered a market re‑rating, pulling the company’s enterprise value from near $100 billion in September 2025 to under $30 billion. Roblox also announced it will abandon annual forecasts beyond 2026, moving to quarterly guidance.
"Never Sell" Episode: Big Tech Earnings, S&P and Moody’s, AI
The "Never Sell" podcast episode breaks down the latest Q1 earnings from Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, highlighting how AI‑driven cloud services lifted results. It warns that corporate IT budget shifts toward generative AI may not translate into durable productivity...
Microsoft FY 3Q'26: Multi-Model Mirage, Copilot Momentum
Microsoft’s FY 3Q 2026 earnings call highlighted a modest rise in multi‑model AI usage, with just over 10,000 Foundry customers running more than one model and 5,000 leveraging open‑source options. Despite this, roughly 90% of the 80,000‑plus customers still rely on a...
Tesla's Terafab Dream
Tesla disclosed its ambitious Terafab project, a joint venture with SpaceX and xAI valued at roughly $25 billion. The plan envisions a 2 nm semiconductor fab capable of 1 terawatt of annual compute—about 50 times current global capacity—and an initial research fab at Giga...
Meta's Heterogeneous Fleet
Meta’s data‑center strategy now embraces a highly heterogeneous chip fleet, deploying five to six distinct hardware SKUs each year. While this diversity historically caused underutilized servers and software friction, the company has refined its processes to turn the complexity into...
Jassy's Defense
Since Andy Jassy took the helm in July 2021, Amazon’s share price has trailed the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and every other Mag 7 tech giant. In a fresh shareholder letter, Jassy argues that the market misreads the company’s long‑term bets, from rural...
Man and Machine
The article examines how Alphabet and Meta allocate capital differently from traditional firms, emphasizing gross‑profit‑level decisions over cash‑flow metrics. It highlights Sundar Pichai’s discussion on compute scarcity, TPU budgeting, and early‑stage AI investments as core to Alphabet’s allocation framework. The...
"Never Sell" Episode: AI Doom, Veeva, Research and Writing
The latest “Never Sell” podcast episode explores three intertwined themes: the growing investor fascination with AI‑doom scenarios, why biotech‑software leader Veeva Systems appears insulated from disruptive AI forces, and a fresh perspective on investment research that favors a judge‑like stance...
Digital Engagement's Fat Tail Risk?
Meta was hit this week with two high‑profile lawsuits—one in Los Angeles over algorithmic addiction and another in New Mexico over child sexual exploitation—resulting in $375 million in civil penalties and $6 million in damages, respectively. The penalties are modest compared with...
Nadella's Flip-Flop
Satya Nadella has pivoted Microsoft’s AI stance from a single‑model, full‑stack approach—leveraging exclusive access to OpenAI’s flagship model—to a multi‑model, modular strategy that decouples the harness and context layers. The shift follows the OpenAI leadership turmoil and growing concerns that...
The Neocloud Trojan Horse
Recent disclosures show neocloud players CoreWeave and Nebius planning $30‑35 billion and $16‑20 billion capex respectively by 2026, roughly a third of AWS's projected spend. Nvidia is repeatedly financing these firms, while Meta has pledged $12 billion for Nebius AI capacity through 2027...
Veeva Model Update
The author has released an updated financial model for Veeva Systems, incorporating the latest quarterly data and revised assumptions. The update follows a series of prior deep‑dive analyses published in September 2024 and December 2023. The new model adjusts growth...
Follow-Up on "AWS: Pre and Post-ChatGPT"
The author revisits his earlier article warning about AWS’s long‑term outlook, sparked by the rise of ChatGPT and AI‑driven workloads. Reader feedback was notably more constructive, prompting a follow‑up that clarifies and expands on the original concerns. Additional analysis, including...
Constellation Software 4Q'25 Update
Constellation Software reported a solid fourth‑quarter 2025, with its maintenance and recurring revenue segment—about 75% of total sales—growing 6% year‑over‑year, an acceleration of roughly 200 basis points versus the prior quarter. Management said artificial intelligence has not yet affected organic...
Notes From MS Conference: Meta, and Microsoft
At Morgan Stanley’s TMT conference, Meta CFO Susan Li highlighted the company’s IREV metric, showing steady ad‑performance improvements driven by AI and larger data pools. She explained Meta’s push to scale data, redistribute ad loads, and deploy large‑language models for real‑time...