How Elephants May Die
Hendrik Bessembinder’s research shows that roughly 4% of U.S. stocks have generated virtually all excess returns over Treasury bills since 1926. The article links this concentration to investors’ shrinking time horizons, which heighten sensitivity to valuation spikes and disruptive narratives. It highlights Adobe as a rare low‑multiple SaaS stock (≈12x EV/EBIT) facing mounting AI‑driven competitive risk. The piece argues that even modest multiples may not fully price AI threats, prompting a deeper valuation debate.
Digital Advertising Industry Snapshot 4Q'25
The fourth quarter of 2025 reveals a shifting balance in digital advertising, with Meta’s market share rising to 34 percent and Alphabet’s falling to 48.1 percent after a four‑year decline. Meta’s incremental share has consistently exceeded 40 percent over the past three years,...
Alphabet: From Search to AI to "AGI"
The author revisits his deep‑dive model on Alphabet, highlighting the company’s transition from a search‑centric giant to an AI and emerging AGI powerhouse. After selling the stock in 2023 over post‑ChatGPT search concerns, he re‑entered in early 2025 and now...
The Long-Term Reality of Hyperscalers: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Scenarios
OpenAI disclosed that its adjusted gross margin on inference dropped to 33% in 2025, down from 40% the previous year, as inference costs quadrupled. The company also projected training expenditures to rise sharply, reaching $32 billion this year and $65 billion next...
Booking vs Airbnb's 4Q'25, Booking's Response to Existential Question
Booking Holdings reported a 12% year‑over‑year revenue increase in Q4 2025, reaching $4.3 billion, while Airbnb posted a 9% rise to $2.1 billion. Both companies saw higher gross booking value, but Booking’s net profit margin grew to 8.5% versus Airbnb’s 6.2%. Occupancy rates...
Amazon: 2026 Update
The author has refreshed his proprietary Amazon valuation model using the company’s latest 10‑K filing, projecting financial performance through 2026. The update incorporates recent trends in e‑commerce, cloud services, and advertising revenue streams. Detailed assumptions and calculations are hosted behind...
