AWS: Pre and Post-ChatGPT
Jeff Bezos highlighted Amazon Web Services as a "market size unconstrained" business in his 2014 shareholder letter, emphasizing strong returns on capital. After the letter, AWS disclosed mid‑20s operating margins that rose to roughly 30% by 2021, with ROIC consistently in the mid‑20s to mid‑30s. The launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT in November 2022 introduced a new wave of generative‑AI workloads that could reshape AWS's revenue mix. The article previews how these AI trends may affect AWS performance over the next five years.
Why AI Is Unlikely to Kill OTAs
OpenAI announced it is scaling back plans to embed direct checkout functionality inside ChatGPT, opting instead for checkout flows through third‑party apps that plug into the chatbot. The news sent Booking Holdings and Expedia Group shares higher, reflecting investor relief...
Veeva FY4Q'26 Update
Veeva Systems posted a strong FY4Q’26, reporting $836 million in revenue versus the $811 million consensus. Revenue grew 16% year‑over‑year, outpacing operating expense growth of roughly 7%, which helped lift the LTM GAAP operating margin to a record 28.7%. Gross margin dipped...
Never Sell: MBI Interviews Asianometry
MBI’s “Never Sell” podcast featured a conversation with Asianometry, the popular YouTube educator known for deep dives into semiconductor technology. The episode explored the entire semiconductor value chain, from design through testing, and highlighted the creator’s ability to simplify complex...
Frontier AI Economics
Frontier AI model developers operate under highly speculative economics, with valuations suggesting they will capture strong net‑profit margins over time. The range of possible outcomes remains broad, from modest profitability to potential monopoly power, as illustrated by a hypothetical Anthropic...
How Elephants May Die
Hendrik Bessembinder’s research shows that roughly 4% of U.S. stocks have generated virtually all excess returns over Treasury bills since 1926. The article links this concentration to investors’ shrinking time horizons, which heighten sensitivity to valuation spikes and disruptive narratives....
Digital Advertising Industry Snapshot 4Q'25
The fourth quarter of 2025 reveals a shifting balance in digital advertising, with Meta’s market share rising to 34 percent and Alphabet’s falling to 48.1 percent after a four‑year decline. Meta’s incremental share has consistently exceeded 40 percent over the past three years,...
Alphabet: From Search to AI to "AGI"
The author revisits his deep‑dive model on Alphabet, highlighting the company’s transition from a search‑centric giant to an AI and emerging AGI powerhouse. After selling the stock in 2023 over post‑ChatGPT search concerns, he re‑entered in early 2025 and now...
The Long-Term Reality of Hyperscalers: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Scenarios
OpenAI disclosed that its adjusted gross margin on inference dropped to 33% in 2025, down from 40% the previous year, as inference costs quadrupled. The company also projected training expenditures to rise sharply, reaching $32 billion this year and $65 billion next...
Booking vs Airbnb's 4Q'25, Booking's Response to Existential Question
Booking Holdings reported a 12% year‑over‑year revenue increase in Q4 2025, reaching $4.3 billion, while Airbnb posted a 9% rise to $2.1 billion. Both companies saw higher gross booking value, but Booking’s net profit margin grew to 8.5% versus Airbnb’s 6.2%. Occupancy rates...
Amazon: 2026 Update
The author has refreshed his proprietary Amazon valuation model using the company’s latest 10‑K filing, projecting financial performance through 2026. The update incorporates recent trends in e‑commerce, cloud services, and advertising revenue streams. Detailed assumptions and calculations are hosted behind...