The Long Bond Yield Is Signaling a Huge Fear of Inflation
The 30‑year U.S. Treasury long‑bond yield rose to 5.01%, just 17 basis points shy of an 18‑year peak. A 7% oil price surge to $107 per barrel has added upward pressure, while technical charts point to a potential breakout toward 5.44%. Analysts warn that the bond market is pricing in heightened inflation risk amid escalating geopolitical tension with Iran. The author predicts further yield gains unless diplomatic developments intervene.
There’s Upward Pressure on Interest Rates With a Slight Bias for Fed Hikes
The market’s FedWatch data shows a modest bias toward rate hikes, with the most likely outcome being a 3.50‑3.75% target in April 2027 (67.6% probability). A recent 8‑basis‑point shift from a cut bias to a hike bias coincides with a...
Congress Seeks to Prevent China From Building Cars in the US. Good Idea?
Congress is drafting legislation to prohibit Chinese automakers from building vehicles in the United States and from selling cars that enter via Mexico or Canada. Chinese brands such as Geely, BYD and Great Wall already have a foothold in border...
A Bipartisan Bill Aimed at Creating New Housing Has Already Failed
A bipartisan Senate bill aimed at speeding up housing construction includes a provision that forces build‑to‑rent developers to sell newly built rental homes within seven years. The prospect of forced sales has already caused developers like TerraLane Communities to pause...
Is China Selling US Treasuries? AI View, Consensus View, the Right View
China’s official reserve portfolio shows a continued pullback from U.S. Treasuries, with holdings now around $694 billion—the lowest level since 2008. The sell‑off is driven by a mix of reserve diversification, yuan‑support policies, and geopolitical risk concerns, while much of the...
All Quiet on the Long-Bond Front. How Long Can This Last?
The U.S. 30‑year Treasury yield has been unusually steady since March 29, trading in an 8.2‑basis‑point band between 4.858% and 4.940%, even as oil prices swung more than 30% and equities experienced sharp moves. Analysts attribute the calm to market uncertainty...
Justice Department Ends Probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Or Does It?
The Justice Department announced it is closing its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on costly Fed‑building renovations, after a judge found the subpoenas improper and evidence lacking. The move removes the primary political hurdle for Kevin...
A Messy Tariff Refund Process Has Begun. Sorry, Businesses Only for Now
U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched an online portal on Monday to process refunds of roughly $166 billion in tariffs that the Supreme Court declared illegal. The system is limited to importers of record—typically businesses—not individual consumers, forcing shoppers to depend...
Trump Indefinitely Extends Cease-Fire. Congratulations Iran, It’s TACO Tuesday.
President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the U.S. cease‑fire with Iran, while maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian ports until Tehran presents a unified proposal. The move follows a stalled diplomatic push involving Pakistan and a recent U.S....
How Trump’s Protectionism on Aluminum Works in Two Pictures
President Trump’s Section 232 tariffs on aluminum started at 10% in 2018 and were increased to 50% in 2025, eliminating most exemptions. Instead of boosting domestic output, primary smelting fell from dozens to just four plants, with only two operating at...
How Trump and Biden Accidentally Worked Together to Kill Spirit Airlines
Spirit Aviation Holdings is on the brink of liquidation as soaring jet‑fuel costs, driven by the U.S.‑Iran conflict, cripple its cash flow. A federal judge blocked JetBlue’s $3.8 billion bid to acquire Spirit in 2024, a decision backed by the Biden‑era...
Median Monthly Condo Fee Was $420 in 2025, up 29% From 2019
The median monthly condo association fee hit $420 in 2025, a 29% jump from 2019, while single‑family HOA fees rose 26% to $63. About 21.6 million U.S. households—one‑quarter of owners—paid HOA or condo fees in 2024. The Wall Street Journal notes...
Industrial Production Declines 0.5 Percent in March but Feb Revised Higher
The Federal Reserve’s March 2026 industrial production report showed a 0.5% month‑over‑month decline, yet the index still reflected a 2.4% annualized growth rate for the first quarter. Manufacturing output slipped 0.1% in March but posted a 3.0% quarterly gain, while...
Bessent Says “Inflation Is Transitory” But the Fed Should Wait for Clarity
Bessent told Semafor that the recent surge in prices is "transitory" and that the Federal Reserve should adopt a "wait‑and‑see" approach before lowering interest rates. March consumer‑price data rose three times faster than February, largely because of higher oil and...
Producer Price Index Jumps 0.5 Percent, Fourth Straight Month of Big Increases
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) final demand rose 0.5% month‑over‑month in March 2026, well below the Bloomberg consensus of 1.2%. The goods component drove the increase, climbing 1.6% on sharp energy price gains,...