Fed Study Shows Tariffs Boosted Goods Inflation by a Cumulative 3.1 Percent
The Federal Reserve’s latest research quantifies the inflationary impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs, finding a cumulative 3.1 percent rise in core goods personal consumption expenditures (PCE) through February 2026. The analysis shows that tariff costs are fully passed through to consumer prices within seven months, contributing roughly 0.8 percent to overall core PCE inflation. A November 2025 reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports partially offset these gains, but the net effect remains inflationary. The study demonstrates a real‑time methodology that can track future tariff‑price dynamics.
US Intelligence Says China Will Soon Deliver Air Defense Systems to Iran
U.S. intelligence agencies say China is poised to deliver man‑portable air‑defense systems (MANPADs) to Iran within weeks, according to three sources cited by CNN. The missiles, capable of targeting low‑flying aircraft, could revive the asymmetric threat that plagued U.S. forces...
Trump Changed the Middle East Forever. US Dominance Is ‘Basically Over’
Former President Donald Trump’s aggressive campaign against Iran and the ensuing six‑week war highlighted the limits of U.S. military leverage in the Middle East. Pakistan’s ambassador Maleeha Lodhi, who helped broker back‑channel talks, argued that Washington’s inability to secure a...
Significant Downgrades to Fourth-Quarter 2025 GDP, What Happened?
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 real GDP down to a 0.5% annualized gain, a 0.2‑percentage‑point drop from the second estimate and far below the Bloomberg consensus of no change. The downgrade marks the second consecutive negative revision...
Cleveland Fed Quarterly CPI Inflation Estimate Surges to 5.5 Percent for Q2
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast shows a steep rise in second‑quarter inflation, with the annualized CPI projected at 5.5 percent and the PCE index at 4.6 percent—both far above the Fed’s 2 percent target. Core inflation remains modest, with core CPI near 2.6 percent...
Iran Limits Ships and Charges Tolls Paid Upfront in Crypto or Yuan
Iran has reduced ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz to roughly a dozen vessels per day and now requires advance toll payments in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan. Fees can climb to $2 million for a super‑tanker, which could generate up...
Cleveland Fed Projects Highest Month-Over-Month Inflation Levels Since June 2022
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast model indicates that March’s month‑over‑month CPI rose 0.84%, the strongest increase since June 2022, while core PCE inflation is projected at 0.23%. Market pricing on CME’s FedWatch shows a 63.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will...
The Lose-Lose Two-Way Risk of Trump Pulling the US Out of NATO
President Trump and Senator Marco Rubio are intensifying criticism of NATO, demanding European nations increase naval support for the Strait of Hormuz and even threatening a U.S. withdrawal. The article outlines how European allies already fund U.S. bases—Germany alone pays...
Trade Data Smacks GDPNow First Quarter Forecast Down to 1.1 Percent
The Fed’s GDPNow model now projects first‑quarter 2026 growth at just 1.1% annualized, down from its earlier 1.6% headline nowcast. The downgrade stems primarily from a sharper‑than‑expected decline in net‑exports, which fell by 0.53 percentage points after February’s trade deficit...
There’s a 63 Percent Chance the US Invades Iran by April 30
The Pentagon is weighing an additional deployment of up to 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East, joining roughly 5,000 Marines and 3,000 paratroopers already positioned near Iran. A Polymarket prediction market assigns a 63% probability that U.S. forces will...
Insider Trading Runs Rampant in Trump Administration, SEC Official Resigns
SEC Enforcement Director Margaret Ryan abruptly resigned after clashing with agency leaders over handling of Trump‑related cases. Reuters and CNBC reports highlight a massive insider‑trading episode where $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures were purchased and $192 million in oil futures sold minutes...
Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure
Core CPI remained mild in January‑February 2026, but the Fed‑preferred core PCE is projected to outpace it sharply. Economists expect core PCE to rise about 3.1% year‑over‑year, creating the widest CPI‑PCE gap in decades. The divergence stems from differing weightings,...
What If the Iran War Ended Today? How Long Before Oil Is Normal?
An analyst cited by the Wall Street Journal estimates that if the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran ended today, shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf would normalize in about two weeks and oil production would return to pre‑war levels within two...