Central Asia Watches, Worries, as Conflict Threatens to Engulf the Middle East
Central Asian governments, long silent during Iran's December protests, issued cautious statements after the United States and Israel launched a surprise strike on Iran. Their foreign ministries emphasized restraint, the UN Charter, and humanitarian concerns while deliberately omitting any attribution of blame. The region balances growing U.S. engagement with entrenched economic ties to Iran, especially through prospective trade corridors. Simultaneously, thousands of Kyrgyz, Kazakh and Uzbek citizens in the Gulf face evacuation hurdles as the conflict threatens to spill over.
Central Asia’s ‘Soft Confederation’ Has a Hard Limit
Central Asia’s five states (C5) have coalesced around a sovereignty‑first coordination model, dubbed a “soft confederation,” that emphasizes consensus and minimal delegation. Recent C5+ diplomatic rounds—an EU summit in Samarkand, a U.S. White House meeting, and Germany’s C5+1 foreign‑minister talks—have...
Beyond the Third Neighbor: Mongolia-US Ties in an Era of Great Power Competition
The United States and Mongolia marked 39 years of diplomatic ties while deepening their Strategic Partnership with flagship projects such as the $462 million MCC Water Compact and a USTDA‑backed aviation safety program. Mongolia’s recent accession to the Trump‑led Board of...
During Lula’s Visit, South Korea and Brazil Agree to Revive Mercosur Trade Talks
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited Seoul, upgrading the bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership and signing ten MOUs across AI, biotech, agriculture, health and security. The summit’s headline outcome was the decision to revive stalled Mercosur free‑trade...
2 Olympic Gold Medalists Show the Mixed Results of China’s Efforts to Bring Back Diaspora Talent
China’s municipal government paid Olympic skiers Eileen Gu and Beverly Zhu a combined $6.6 million in 2025, highlighting Beijing’s renewed push to lure diaspora talent. The effort builds on the legacy of the Thousand Talents and Qiming programs, which offer generous...
Did Indonesia Just Lock Itself Into an Energy Future It Can’t Afford?
Indonesia’s new trade agreement obliges the country to import $15 billion of U.S. oil and gas each year, contradicting President Prabowo Subianto’s pledge for energy self‑sufficiency. The deal was signed to sidestep tariffs that were later nullified, leaving Indonesia locked into...
Merz in China: Germany Between De-Risking and Strategic Partnership
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz concluded a two‑day visit to China, pledging a comprehensive strategic partnership while emphasizing the need for de‑risking amid trade imbalances. He highlighted persistent overcapacity and urged Beijing to play a constructive role in curbing Russia’s war in...
The Future of Japan’s Regional Banks: Demographics, Mergers, and a Tight Market
Japan’s regional banks, once pillars of local growth, now face shrinking deposits and borrowers as the nation records its 16th consecutive year of population decline. Consolidation is accelerating, highlighted by the 2025 Aomori Bank‑Michinoku Bank merger that now controls about...
Southeast Asia’s Grab Finally Turns a Profit
Southeast Asian super‑app Grab reported its first full‑year profit in 2025, posting a $200 million net gain after narrowing losses from $1.7 billion in 2022 to $158 million in 2024. Revenue climbed roughly 20% to $3.4 billion as transaction volume rose 21% to $22 billion...
Sri Lanka Is Now India’s Best – and Maybe Last – Friend in South Asia
India has re‑asserted Sri Lanka as its most dependable South Asian partner through swift humanitarian aid after Cyclone Ditwah and a $4 billion financial lifeline during the 2022 debt crisis. Operation Sagar Bandhu delivered $450 million in disaster relief without adding to Colombo’s debt burden, while...
Japan’s Farm and Food Exports Hit New High As Trade Patterns Shift
Japan’s agricultural, forestry and fishery exports reached a record ¥1.7 trillion in 2025, up 12.8% year‑on‑year, marking the 13th consecutive record. Growth was driven by strong demand for scallops, green tea and sake, with the United States and China remaining the...
America Needs More Than Creativity on Hong Kong – It Needs Action
The article argues that the United States must move beyond rhetoric and take concrete action against Hong Kong’s increasingly repressive regime. It highlights the political role of Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices (HKETOs) in the U.S., which enjoy diplomatic privileges despite...
Takaichi Draws a Red Line on Nuclear Sharing Amid Japan’s Security Review
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly rejected a NATO‑style nuclear‑sharing arrangement with the United States, reaffirming Japan's Three Non‑Nuclear Principles during a House of Representatives debate. Her statement comes amid a comprehensive review of Japan's National Security Strategy, Defense Strategy,...
The ‘Resting’ Generation and South Korea’s Youth Recession
South Korea’s headline unemployment rate hovers around 4%, but a hidden youth recession is emerging as roughly 470,000 young adults are “resting” – neither employed nor job‑searching. Hiring for entry‑level positions has fallen for three consecutive years, with large firms...
China’s New Export: Aircraft Debt
China’s state‑owned COMAC is exporting its C909 and C919 aircraft alongside tailored financing, leasing and equity deals, turning planes into long‑term financial levers. The most visible case is Laos, where COMAC holds a 49% stake in Lao Airlines after a lease‑to‑equity...
Kazakh Journalists Are Being Fined for Surveying Public Opinion on the Upcoming Referendum
Kazakh authorities have fined journalists and a media outlet for conducting online polls about the March 15 constitutional referendum, citing violations of the country’s referendum‑survey law. The Prosecutor General’s Office requires pre‑approval for any poll, a rule that has blocked...
Why Japan Must Help Counter China’s Presence in the Pacific
The article argues that Japan must step up its role in Micronesia to help counter China’s expanding footprint across the Western Pacific. The United States relies on COFA agreements that provide billions in aid and unrestricted base access, yet implementation...
China, ASEAN, and Beyond: The UK Strategy for the Indo-Pacific
The United Kingdom has unveiled a comprehensive Indo‑Pacific strategy that ties Euro‑Atlantic security to a free and open Indo‑Pacific, emphasizing flexible, values‑based partnerships. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s recent China visit secured visa‑free travel for UK citizens and greater market access for...
Pakistan’s New Special Security Unit Underscores China’s Hold on the Country
Pakistan announced a dedicated special security unit in January 2026 to protect Chinese citizens and projects, a move prompted by a spike in militant attacks on Chinese interests. The unit signals Islamabad’s desperation to retain China’s $62 billion investment amid deteriorating...
How North Korea Is Ranking Southeast Asian Countries
North Korea is stratifying its diplomatic outreach in Southeast Asia, placing Vietnam and Laos at the top tier because of entrenched party‑to‑party links, while Indonesia sits in a middle tier with limited ideological affinity. Malaysia’s relations were severed in 2021...
Australia and Timor-Leste: A New Partnership for a New Era
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Timor‑Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão signed the Parseria Foun ba Era Foun declaration, establishing a new partnership built on three pillars – peace and regional integration, prosperity and resilience, and people‑to‑people links. The accord expands cooperation in security,...
Where Do India and Pakistan Stand in Kazakhstan’s Southward Connectivity Push?
Kazakhstan is accelerating a southward connectivity push to secure Arabian Sea access, reducing reliance on Iran’s Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports. President Tokayev’s recent visit to Islamabad underscored a partnership focused on the Kazakhstan‑Turkmenistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan (KTAP) rail corridor and a broader...
Pakistan’s Search for Strategic Flexibility in South Asia
Amid waning external security guarantees, Pakistan has begun exploratory talks with Turkey and Saudi Arabia to create a flexible, informal security platform separate from its 2025 Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Riyadh. The trilateral dialogue focuses on defense‑industrial cooperation, with...
China’s Military Purges Won’t Change Its Taiwan Calculus
China’s recent military purges of senior PLA officers, including CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and member Liu Zhenli, are framed as anti‑corruption and ideological discipline measures. While the removals may temporarily affect command cohesion, the article argues they do not...
Geopolitical Jockeying in Nepal Ahead of March General Elections
The September 2025 Gen Z uprising toppled Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and installed an interim government, prompting India, China and the United States to converge on a common goal: prompt, stable elections in Nepal. All three powers fear prolonged instability could...
3 Southeast Asian Leaders Arrive in Washington for ‘Board of Peace’ Summit
U.S. President Donald Trump convened the inaugural Board of Peace summit in Washington, pledging over $5 billion for Gaza reconstruction and positioning the forum as a potential rival to the United Nations. Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodia attended, each pursuing distinct economic...
The Politics of Interpretation: Who Governs the Korean DMZ?
The United Nations Command (UNC) and South Korea are locked in a legal dispute over who can approve access to the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). While the 1953 Armistice assigns entry authority to the UNC commander, Seoul’s National Assembly is...
America Needs to Get Creative on Hong Kong
The United States condemned the 20‑year sentence handed to Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai but its traditional punitive toolkit—sanctions and revoking Hong Kong’s special trade status—has done little to restore the city’s autonomy. Lawmakers are now proposing legislation that could...
Indonesia Readies 1,000 Soldiers for Potential Deployment to Gaza in April
Indonesia may deploy 1,000 troops to Gaza as early as April, part of a UN‑mandated International Stabilization Force that could expand to 8,000 soldiers by June. The decision rests with President Prabowo Subianto, who is also set to attend President...
How Long Can Kyrgyzstan’s Economic Boom Keep Booming?
Kyrgyzstan’s economy surged, posting 11% GDP growth in 2025 after a 9% rise in 2024, driven by a logistics boom that rerouted Chinese goods northward following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The surge is reinforced by soaring gold exports, higher remittances...
Jimmy Lai’s Sentence: The High Cost of Western Appeasement
Jimmy Lai received a 20‑year prison term, the harshest under Hong Kong’s National Security Law, just days after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Beijing. The sentencing coincided with a diplomatic overture framed as a “break‑the‑ice” meeting, highlighting a disconnect between...
Myanmar Junta Expels Timor-Leste’s Top Diplomat Over War Crimes Case
Myanmar's military junta expelled Timor‑Leste's top diplomat after Dili opened war‑crimes proceedings. The case, filed by the Chin Human Rights Organization, accuses senior general Min Aung Hlaing of rape, murder and attacks in Chin State. The junta called the move a breach...
Thai Prime Minister Announces Coalition Agreement With Pheu Thai Party
Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party, after winning roughly 193 of the 500 lower‑house seats in the February 8 election, announced a coalition agreement with the Pheu Thai party. The partnership, together with three smaller parties, gives Prime Minister Anutin’s bloc a clear parliamentary...
Milan-26: India’s Maritime Diplomacy Comes of Age
India’s 13th Milan naval exercise, Milan‑26, will run Feb 18‑25 in Visakhapatnam, coinciding with the International Fleet Review and the IONS summit, forming the “Vizag trifecta.” The biennial drill has grown from four regional navies in 1995 to 70 confirmed participants...
The Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway: Still Growing 8 Years Later
Eight years after its 2018 launch, the Addis Ababa‑Djibouti Railway has become a fully Ethiopian‑Djiboutian‑run, electrified corridor linking land‑locked Ethiopia to the Port of Djibouti. Management shifted from China Railway Construction Corporation to the two governments in May 2024, and Djibouti’s top...
Why North Korea Is Unlikely to Renew Cooperation at Kaesong
The Kaesong Industrial Complex, once a flagship of inter‑Korean economic cooperation, has remained closed since South Korea halted operations in 2016. South Korean officials are now urging a restart, but the Kim Jong Un regime shows little appetite to revive the site....
What Colby’s Northeast Asia Tour Tells Us About the Future of Japan-Korea-US Trilateral Deterrence
U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby toured Japan and South Korea in late January, reinforcing the Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy that prioritises deterrence‑by‑denial along the First Island Chain. The visits highlighted Washington’s push for allies to shoulder...
Is Central Asia Still Russia’s Backyard?
Russian commentators continue to label Central Asia as a Russian sphere of influence, but the region is asserting its independence. Over the past 35 years, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have leveraged their abundant critical minerals and transit corridors...