Between IMF Conditions and Rising Prices, Is Sri Lanka Heading Toward Stagflation?
Sri Lanka secured a staff‑level IMF agreement that could release about $700 million, but the funds are contingent on reinstating cost‑recovery pricing for fuel and electricity. The government’s move to raise tariffs – a 13.56% request from the Ceylon Electricity Board trimmed to a 10% approval – adds roughly $44 million in projected deficits and could push inflation toward the central bank’s 5% target. Because the price hikes stem from higher production costs rather than demand, they risk creating cost‑push inflation that may slow growth and elevate unemployment, a classic stagflation scenario.
The United States Is Losing the Race for Central Asia’s Critical Minerals
The United States is falling behind in securing Central Asia’s critical‑mineral wealth, a region valued at roughly $46 trillion and home to at least 32 of the 60 U.S.‑identified critical minerals. While China and Russia together command about 70 percent of the...
Swiss Karimova Corruption Case Discontinued
Swiss Federal Criminal Court dismissed the corruption trial against Gulnara Karimova on April 28, citing her inability to appear in court, a procedural obstacle that ends the case against her and a second Uzbek defendant. The dismissal does not affect...
Thailand Walked Into Its LNG Trap With Its Eyes Open – Long Before Hormuz
Thailand’s state power utility has spent roughly $2 billion on availability payments to gas‑fired plants that produced little or no electricity over the past three years. Those fixed fees now add about 0.63 baht per kilowatt‑hour to the 2026 tariff, representing almost...
The Bangladesh-US Trade Deal Is a Litmus Test for Dhaka’s Strategic Autonomy
The U.S.–Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), signed days before Bangladesh’s February elections, expands market access to the United States but embeds clauses that restrict dealings with “non‑market economies” and bind Dhaka to U.S. export‑control, energy and defense rules. Those...
China’s Sanctions Hit Europe’s Emerging Drone Doctrine
On April 24, China’s Ministry of Commerce placed seven European defence firms on an export‑control list, banning dual‑use items over alleged arms links to Taiwan. The sanctions target Germany’s Hensoldt, Belgium’s FN Herstal and FN Browning, and four Czech companies, cutting off...
Myanmar Is Not ‘in Transition’: War by Other Means and the Risks of Policy Drift
A new International Institute for Strategic Studies paper downplays Myanmar’s resistance, treating the junta’s recent elections as a potential transition. The critique argues that the analysis ignores the federal democratic alliance (SCEF) and Spring Revolution Alliance, which now control roughly...
Iran Crisis: Pakistan’s Prominence and India’s Strategic Silence
The U.S.–Iran cease‑fire has been extended indefinitely, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, keeping global oil shipments constrained. On The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast, hosts highlighted Pakistan’s unexpected emergence as the primary mediator between Tehran and Washington. In contrast,...
Watching Iran, China Hopes to Learn New Tricks for the Taiwan Strait
China is closely studying Iran’s tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, using the conflict as a live laboratory for asymmetric maritime warfare. Beijing is analyzing Iran’s cheap drones, ballistic missiles, and suicide boat attacks to develop a template for disrupting...
Central Asians in Russia-Ukraine War: From Forced Recruitment to Economic Recruitment
The Ukrainian "I want to live" initiative identified 12,666 Central Asian citizens fighting for Russia since February 2022, more than double the 5,740 reported a year earlier. Uzbeks constitute the largest national group, while Tajik, Kyrgyz and Turkmen numbers also rose....
Can Trump Still Deal With Kim Jong Un After Strikes on Iran?
North Korea’s April 19 missile test, featuring cluster‑bomb warheads and destroyer‑launched cruise missiles, underscores its expanding strike portfolio. The regime has deepened a strategic partnership with Russia while trade with China rebounds to near‑pre‑pandemic levels. President Trump’s upcoming Beijing trip...
The Soyuz-5 Will Transform Kazakhstan Into a New Space Power
The joint Soyuz‑5 rocket, built by Russia and slated for Baikonur, arrived in November but its test flight has been pushed to 2026 after launch‑pad damage and safety checks. Kazakhstan’s Baiterek Space Rocket Complex, funded by a $115 million lease and...
What China’s New County Reveals About Its Afghanistan Policy
China announced the creation of Cenling County in Xinjiang’s border with Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor, a move that extends a series of frontier‑administrative reforms begun in 2024. The new county is positioned to support the long‑discussed Wakhan Road, a potential overland...
The Quad Isn’t Dead. It’s Just Moved Out of the Spotlight.
The article argues that the Quad is not defunct but has shifted from high‑profile summits to low‑visibility, functional coordination. It frames the grouping as a platform for aligning capabilities, setting standards in technology and supply chains, and building disaster‑response logistics....
Mongolia Is Redefining Steppe Diplomacy With Kazakhstan
Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa completed the first state visit to Kazakhstan in two decades, cementing a strategic partnership first announced in 2024. The leaders signed 13 agreements covering trade, energy, mining and agriculture, and set a goal to raise bilateral...