Mortgage Rates May Hit 7%—Or Have Already Peaked
This is the scenario where I see mortgage rates hitting 7% again. But if it doesn't happen, it might mean rates have already peaked.
Buyers Choose Rate Buydowns Over Price Cuts for Lower Payments
People keep saying mortgage rates aren't too high, that home prices are. But when given the choice, a home buyer today who receives seller concessions will likely pay full price and just buy down the rate. Why? Because it lowers...
Homeowners Now Have Record‑Low Loan‑to‑Value Ratios
Gentle reminder that loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are obscenely low. Homeowners have never been less leveraged.
First‑time Buyers Still Claim Nearly Half of Purchases
They say it's just boomers trading houses today. But first-time home buyers (FTHBs) continue to "represent a meaningful share of purchase activity." Nearly half (47%) of conforming purchase locks, 70% of FHA purchase locks, and 45% of VA purchase locks, per Optimal...
Refi Share Hits 44% as Borrowers Save $257 Monthly
Refinances accounted for ~44% of all mortgages in Q1, the highest share in four years. Rate and term refis were 60% of refi activity, a five-year high thanks to low mortgage rates (which are now gone). Average borrower reduced their monthly payment...
Higher Rates Demand ~30% Home Price Drop
People say home prices must FALL and that mortgage rates are OK where they stand. Sure, but here's an example of how much they'd need to fall... A mortgage payment is $2,021.50 per month on a $450k home w/ a 3.75% rate...
MBS Buying May Not Significantly Lower Mortgage Rates
I wonder if these MBS purchases have kept mortgage rates lower than they otherwise would be. Would the 30-year fixed be ~6.75% today instead? Problem is other administration policies, e.g. tariffs, war, etc. basically absorb and offset any of the benefit.
Market Discounts High Oil, Hot Jobs; Rates Stay Firm
It has become obvious now that the market is looking through both high oil prices and the recent hot jobs reports. They're both seen as temporary and the broader view is labor gets worse and oil comes down. That's why mortgage rates...
Mortgage Rate Rally Falters Amid Rising Yields, Weak Jobs Outlook
Is this week's mortgage rate rally already running out of steam? Bond yields are back up, oil prices are back up, mortgage rates no longer falling... And we have another jobs report tomorrow with a very low bar to clear, just 55k...
UWM Leads Refinance Market, Rocket Trails Far Behind
Here are the top 10 mortgage refinance lenders of 2025. No major surprises, with UWM taking #1 in both refis and overall, based on loan volume. Rocket came in a distant second, but still within reach of its crosstown rival UWM. Then you...
Mortgage Rates Climb Above 6.5%, Looming Market Turbulence
Mortgage rates are back over 6.50%. Anyone who thought the worst was over given what's happening with oil prices and tensions in the ME has another thing coming. Ideally things settle down again later this year, but the next couple months could...
UWM's VantageScore Option Can Cut Mortgage Rates
The nation's top mortgage lender (UWM) has rolled out a VantageScore option for customers. Borrowers who qualify with FICO but have a higher VantageScore could obtain better pricing due to lower LLPAs. However, b/c VantageScore is new and untested, it must be...
Sellers Are Also Buyers, so They Won’t Accept Low Offers
A lot of people fail to realize that "boomers" and other home sellers are also home buyers, most of the time. This makes them would-be sellers, who won't just sell for any price b/c you think they should. Why? Because they...
Mortgage Rates Climb Again; Jobs Data Will Decide Impact
Looks like mortgage rates are heading higher again after a nice little reprieve in early April. The jobs report next week will either add to the pain or offset the move higher. Will be important, especially as new Fed chair comes in.
Repeat‑sale Prices Rise Faster than Median Home Values
Home prices based on repeat-sales, meaning the same property that sold twice. Flying higher. This differs from median prices, which don't control for size, quality, or location. Repeat sales track how prices are changing over time, while median shows what...