‘Ecommerce Remains the Growth Engine of German Retail’

Why It Matters

Ecommerce’s rapid expansion reshapes Germany’s retail landscape, but the dominance of foreign platforms erodes domestic margins and raises competition policy concerns.

Key Takeaways

• Ecommerce revenue forecast to reach €96.3bn ($105bn) in 2024.
• Physical store sales grow only 1.6% versus 4.3% online.
• Marketplaces hold 56.7% of online sales, Amazon dominates.
• Shein and Temu generate €4.7bn ($5.1bn) in German sales.
• 65% of Germans shop abroad; 49% bought from Chinese retailers.

Pulse Analysis

Germany’s retail sector is increasingly powered by digital commerce, with the HDE estimating a 4.3% rise in ecommerce sales to €96.3 billion this year. This growth dwarfs the modest 1.6% increase in brick‑and‑mortar revenue, underscoring a structural shift toward online channels. Marketplaces, especially Amazon, capture more than half of all digital transactions, reinforcing their role as the primary growth engine for the industry. The surge in online spending also reflects broader consumer confidence in e‑commerce platforms, which continue to expand product assortments and delivery capabilities.

While the overall market expands, a significant portion of German consumer spend is siphoned to foreign platforms, most notably Chinese fast‑fashion giants Shein and Temu. Together they account for roughly €4.7 billion ($5.1 billion) in sales, illustrating how cross‑border e‑commerce can divert revenue away from domestic retailers. With 65% of shoppers having purchased from an overseas site and nearly half of those transactions involving Chinese sellers, the competitive landscape is increasingly global. This dynamic raises concerns about market concentration, tax revenue leakage, and the sustainability of local supply chains.

Policymakers face a balancing act: fostering the growth of a vibrant digital economy while ensuring fair competition for home‑grown businesses. HDE officials argue that current regulatory tools are insufficient to curb anti‑competitive practices by dominant foreign players, calling for stronger enforcement and clearer penalties. As Amazon continues to post double‑digit growth and other marketplaces consolidate market share, Germany may need to revisit its competition framework to protect domestic retailers and preserve the economic benefits of its burgeoning ecommerce sector.