2026 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record, Leading Scientist Predicts

Why It Matters

A new temperature record would intensify pressure on policymakers and businesses to accelerate climate mitigation and adaptation measures, while heightened heat risks could disrupt supply chains, increase insurance losses, and spur demand for climate‑resilient technologies.

Summary

Leading climate scientist predicts 2026 will become the hottest year on record, surpassing the 2024 benchmark of 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels, driven by accelerating anthropogenic warming and an anticipated strong El Niño. The El Niño is expected to develop in the second half of the year, potentially becoming a “super” event that could push global temperatures even higher. Some experts project the peak impact will be felt in 2027, when the full strength of the phenomenon is realized. The forecast follows recent extreme weather events, including severe wildfires in Patagonia linked to the same heat surge.