Balancing Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Economic Development: An Environmental Disparity Perspective in China

Why It Matters

The research shows that without targeted policy tools, market mechanisms alone cannot bridge eco‑economic gaps, jeopardizing China’s carbon‑neutrality timeline and regional equity.

Key Takeaways

• Western provinces hold 74.6% of China’s carbon stocks
• They contribute under 5% of carbon‑adjusted GDP
• Carbon value in GDP dropped to 2.67% by 2020
• Gini coefficient stayed above 0.51, showing high inequality
• Tiered carbon tax plus $42/ton pricing reduces Gini to 0.49

Pulse Analysis

China’s pledge to peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 hinges on more than just national totals; it requires a balanced distribution of ecological assets and economic benefits. The study’s high‑resolution carbon inventory reveals a stark east‑west divide, where carbon‑rich western provinces contribute minimally to the nation’s carbon‑adjusted GDP. This spatial disparity amplifies social and fiscal tensions, especially as the carbon value embedded in GDP has dwindled to just 2.67% of total output, underscoring the urgency for equitable solutions.

To capture the interplay between ecology and economics, the researchers introduced a Carbon‑improved GDP (C‑GDP) metric, integrating carbon stock valuations directly into economic performance. The persistent Dagum Gini coefficient above 0.51 signals deep‑rooted inequity, resistant to market forces alone. Policy simulations tested a suite of interventions, finding that a differentiated carbon price—approximately $42 per ton, up from the baseline 302.4 CNY/ton—and a six‑tier progressive carbon tax together achieve the most pronounced reduction in the Gini index, bringing it down to 0.49. This combination leverages price signals while redistributing revenue to lagging regions.

The implications extend beyond China’s borders. As nations design carbon‑pricing mechanisms, the study warns that uniform rates may exacerbate regional disparities, especially in economies with uneven natural resource endowments. Targeted fiscal tools, such as tiered taxes and region‑specific pricing, can align ecological stewardship with economic incentives, fostering a more inclusive transition to low‑carbon growth. Policymakers worldwide should consider integrating eco‑economic equity metrics into climate strategies to ensure that the benefits of decarbonization are shared broadly, mitigating the risk of social backlash and enhancing the durability of climate commitments.