Climate Change Could Erase Most South American Cloud Forests, Study Warns

Why It Matters

The collapse of cloud forests would jeopardize water security for millions and accelerate extinction of unique species, underscoring urgent climate action and conservation financing.

Key Takeaways

• Up to 91% cloud forest loss by 2070 under high emissions.
• 16 million people risk water shortages from forest decline.
• Only ~33% of cloud forests currently protected.
• 1,946 endemic species face habitat loss, many near extinction.
• Payments for ecosystem services crucial for climate‑resilient conservation.

Pulse Analysis

Cloud forests are among the planet’s most biodiverse and hydrologically critical ecosystems, acting like natural water towers that capture fog and release it slowly into downstream rivers. The recent machine‑learning analysis of South American montane habitats shows that rising temperatures will push the cloud‑formation zone upward, stripping away the narrow band where these forests can survive. Even under optimistic climate pathways, the study forecasts a loss of 12% of forest area—equivalent to a small country—highlighting the fragility of these climate‑dependent ecosystems.

Beyond the loss of iconic species such as the Andean cock‑of‑the‑rock and the yellow‑tailed woolly monkey, the disappearance of cloud forests threatens the water supply for an estimated 16 million people living within five kilometres of affected watersheds. During dry seasons, the fog‑capture function of these forests buffers river flow, reducing variability and ensuring reliable drinking water. A collapse would exacerbate water scarcity, increase reliance on costly infrastructure, and amplify social vulnerability in Andean and Amazonian communities already facing climate stress.

Policymakers face a narrow window to mitigate these impacts. While expanding protected‑area networks is essential, the study shows that protection alone cannot offset climate‑driven habitat loss. Targeted payments for ecosystem services (PES) that reward landowners for conserving and restoring forest patches projected to remain climatically suitable offer a pragmatic pathway. Coupled with aggressive greenhouse‑gas emission reductions, PES and adaptive management can preserve the remaining cloud‑forest refugia, safeguard biodiversity, and maintain the vital water regulation that underpins regional economies.