Habitat Suitability and Conservation Prioritisation for the Mishmi Takin (Budorcas Taxicolor Taxicolor) Under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Eastern Himalaya, India

Why It Matters

The findings reveal that climate change will reshape the Mishmi Takin's refuge zones, demanding proactive connectivity and land‑use planning to safeguard this endangered Himalayan ungulate.

Key Takeaways

• High‑suitability habitat currently covers ~10.8% of Arunachal Pradesh
• Future SSP scenarios predict habitat loss at low elevations, gain upslope
• Key drivers: dry‑month precipitation, seasonality, isothermality, max temperature
• Conservation focus: connectivity, permeability, and field validation of climate models

Pulse Analysis

The Mishmi Takin, a little‑known bovid endemic to the eastern Himalaya, epitomizes the vulnerability of high‑altitude specialists to a warming world. Its limited range, coupled with fragmented sub‑alpine forests, makes it a bellwether for broader ecosystem health. As temperatures rise, the species’ thermal niche shifts upward, squeezing populations into narrower bands of suitable terrain and exposing them to heightened human pressures along the valley corridors.

The research team applied an ensemble species distribution modeling framework, integrating bioclimatic, topographic, vegetation and anthropogenic layers. Results pinpointed precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality, isothermality and peak summer temperature as the strongest predictors of habitat suitability. Under all four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, low‑lying habitats are projected to become unsuitable, while higher elevations gain suitability, yielding a modest net increase in potential range. However, the upslope migration may encounter steep terrain and limited space, raising concerns about the ecological viability of these newly suitable patches.

Policy implications are clear: conservation planners must prioritize landscape connectivity to facilitate movement between existing strongholds and emerging habitats. Establishing corridors that bypass roads and settlements, enhancing permeability of forest patches, and conducting field validations of model predictions will be essential. The study underscores the need for adaptive management strategies across the Himalayas, where climate‑driven habitat shifts threaten not only the Mishmi Takin but a suite of similarly constrained mountain species.