Integrating Bioeconomic and System Dynamics Modeling to Evaluate Sustainability Trade-Offs in Indonesian Lobster Aquaculture

Why It Matters

The findings prove that environmentally‑focused management can boost profitability while preserving ecosystem health, guiding Indonesia’s aquaculture policy toward resilient growth.

Key Takeaways

• Integrated model links biology, economics, environment for lobster farms.
• Baseline scenario yields short‑term profit, long‑term environmental decline.
• Sustainability scenario moderates stocking, boosts survival, improves ecosystem.
• Long‑term profits rise under sustainable management despite lower intensity.
• Framework provides evidence‑based tool for Indonesia’s aquaculture policy.

Pulse Analysis

Indonesia’s lobster sector has surged in recent years, driven by rising global demand for premium seafood. Yet rapid expansion often outpaces the region’s fragile coastal ecosystems, creating a classic trade‑off between short‑term earnings and long‑term resource health. Traditional analyses have treated biological yields, market prices and environmental limits in isolation, leaving producers and regulators without a holistic view of how decisions ripple through the system.

The new research bridges that gap by coupling bio‑economic theory with system dynamics simulation. Researchers gathered on‑the‑ground data on growth rates, feed conversion, market prices and water quality across Java, Lombok and Sulawesi between 2022 and 2025. Feeding these parameters into Vensim®, they ran a decade‑long projection under two contrasting regimes: a baseline that maximises stocking density for immediate profit, and a sustainability pathway that tempers inputs to allow ecological recovery. Results show the sustainable approach not only stabilizes biomass but also lifts cumulative profits, debunking the myth that environmental stewardship necessarily sacrifices earnings.

For industry stakeholders, the model offers a decision‑support platform that quantifies the financial upside of greener practices, while policymakers gain a data‑driven basis for crafting regulations that align economic incentives with ecosystem limits. The framework is adaptable to other tropical aquaculture systems, suggesting a broader shift toward integrated modeling as a cornerstone of sustainable seafood production. As climate pressures intensify, such evidence‑based tools will be essential for balancing profitability with the long‑term viability of marine resources.