WEATHERING EXTREMES: Scientists Challenge ‘Business as Usual’, Calling for Southern-Led Climate Scenarios to Tackle the Crisis

Why It Matters

Without models that reflect African development pathways, climate policies risk perpetuating inequities and missing effective solutions, weakening global mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Key Takeaways

• Africa lacks its own Integrated Assessment Model, hindering climate policy
• Current IAMs embed Western economic assumptions, misaligned with African development
• Researchers propose Integrated Transformative Scenarios led by Global South
• New framework prioritizes equity, biodiversity, and local knowledge from the start
• Funding gaps and political will impede creation of Africa-specific climate models

Pulse Analysis

South Africa’s recent cascade of floods, drought‑driven water shortages and even early snowfall illustrates how climate extremes are no longer isolated events but a systemic polycrisis affecting the Global South. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has raised awareness, the underlying analytical tools—Integrated Assessment Models—remain rooted in Western growth‑centric assumptions. This mismatch leaves African decision‑makers without the granular, scenario‑based insights needed to balance development, inequality and climate resilience.

Integrated Assessment Models were originally designed to evaluate energy‑focused mitigation pathways for economies such as the United States, Europe or Japan. Their embedded assumptions about market‑driven growth, carbon pricing and technological substitution do not capture the realities of African nations, where adaptation, water security and biodiversity protection dominate policy agendas. The absence of an Africa‑specific IAM means regional data are often smoothed into global outputs, effectively rendering the continent a "black hole" in climate forecasting. Consequently, funding allocations and international negotiations may overlook solutions that are socially just and ecologically appropriate for the region.

The authors of the *One Earth* paper call for Integrated Transformative Scenarios—a new generation of models co‑created by Southern scholars, indigenous communities and local stakeholders. By foregrounding equity, alternative economic paradigms such as post‑growth models, and ecosystem values, these scenarios aim to shift climate planning from reactive mitigation to proactive, justice‑centered pathways. Realising this vision will require sustained investment, political commitment and a re‑orientation of global climate governance toward a truly inclusive secretariat. If successful, the approach could reshape how the world quantifies and addresses climate risk, delivering more resilient outcomes for vulnerable populations worldwide.