What's happening: US GDP Slows to 1.4% as Legislative Gridlock Saps Growth
The economy expanded at an annualized 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts’ expectations and far below the 4.4% pace recorded the prior quarter. The slowdown marks the slowest expansion since Q1 2024 and coincides with heightened legislative gridlock over fiscal policy and the debt ceiling.
The US MSCI index has underperformed global peers in 2025, ending a year of relative strength. Investors are shifting toward high‑growth emerging‑market stocks such as South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and Taiwan, while Japan rallied 5.7% after a decisive election. The US’s share of the All‑Country World MSCI fell from its historic 65% weighting, prompting a rebalancing away from domestic equities. Despite the trend, foreign capital continues to view the United States as an attractive long‑term destination.

"It is deja vu all over again." Yogi Berra The US stock market is doing fine, but the rest of the world is soaring so far in '26. This is similar to what we saw last year and is a big...

𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐔𝐒 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬, 𝐁𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐬, 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡, 𝐇𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 & 𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝 (𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓) CTTO: Ben Carlson — https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/historical-returns-for-stocks-bonds-cash-housing-gold-2025/ The US, which currently is 60% of the global equity market, continues to influence investment portfolios worldwide, such as endowments and retirement funds. And for over...
Alphabet’s 2025 year‑end headcount rose by 7,497 employees, barely below its 2023 peak, while Amazon added roughly 20,000 workers to reach 1.576 million, just 2% shy of its 2021 high. Both companies experienced massive hiring surges in 2020‑21—Alphabet grew 60% and...

MARKET RECAP 📈 The S&P 500 gained over $250 billion in market cap today and is now less than 1% away from a new record high 😳📈 What the heck is going on?!? Let’s talk about it 🗣️
⏰ Scott Redler’s #630club - LIVE Premarket Stock Update $NVDA $TSLA $IBIT $SPY ➡️ Free VIP List Newsletter: https://t.co/88cKgbrKKl https://t.co/K8dY5tEQml

The United States continues to be described as a ‘Goldilocks Plus’ economy, balancing low inflation with solid growth. Recent data show the labor market still tight, but a wave of layoffs in technology and manufacturing raises concerns. Analysts warn that...

In 1985, IBM was America’s most valuable company & employed nearly 400,000. Today, Nvidia is nearly 20 times as valuable and five times as profitable as IBM was yet it employs roughly a 10th as many people. https://t.co/indMwMz0TO @greg_ip https://t.co/HDl995cUhw
no, but may harvest the loss to pick up the google 100 at 101. #theyieldbook

Investors are confronting a new capital‑allocation landscape as hyper‑scale cloud firms pour record capex into AI infrastructure, squeezing the cash traditionally earmarked for share buybacks. The article argues that despite this shift, the market’s largest shareholder – passive index funds...

All the data coming for the rest of the week. We're going to have Jobs Wednesday and then CPI Friday https://t.co/8DDq0vkOvD
Stock markets may sour if this week’s US economic data casts doubt on Fed rate cut speculation. #stockmarkets #Fed #Economy #InterestRates #USD #Macro #trading https://t.co/ZEfchApMC0
Monday.com’s shares tumbled 22% to about $76.70 after its earnings release, marking a record‑low close. The stock is now 82% below its November 2021 peak and 51% beneath the $155 IPO price. While Q4 revenue rose 25% to $334 million and beat...
Markets pushed higher to start the week, but the rotation underneath the surface is telling a more interesting story. Tech bounced, commodities ripped, and growth showed signs of life again. In today’s CHART THIS, I walk through $SPX just below 7000,...

"Thus, the way to choose a good Federal Reserve chair is to read what candidates have said about how the economy operates and ask them about their economic beliefs. If what a candidate says is unrealistic or poorly reasoned, move...
Big Oil’s XLE ETF has surged 19.1% year‑to‑date, outpacing the clean‑energy ICLN’s 13.2% gain. The rally follows the Trump administration’s move to ease sanctions on Venezuela, a country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves. While the prospect of tapping...
Today is the 60th anniversary of the great crash -- but little noticed. The S&P 500 peaked at 94.06 on February 9, 1966. The market did surpass that peak but not adjusted for inflation. 25 years later and the inflation...
GEV - GE Vernova Current Price: $794.20 Intrinsic Value Range: $720–$950 Rating: BUY (High Conviction, but tactically vulnerable near-term) 12-Month Price Targets: Bull Case: $1,050 (+32%) — accelerated gas turbine orders, Electrification margin beats, data center capex surge Base Case: $900 (+13%) — normalized execution, mid-teens...

The author revisits his "Buy right and sit tight" philosophy after confronting overvaluation in two holdings—Walmart (WMT) and senior‑housing REIT Welltower (WELL). While Walmart’s stock surged to a 50x forward P/E, the author sold too early, missing upside, yet still...

S&P 500 Equal Weight, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600 all hit records on Friday, and so did Dow, which also surpassed 50,000 level for first time ever Friday; although Dow is almost 130 years old, it has evolved over decades ensuring...

Flight to value was unmistakable last week in factors; S&P 500 Pure Value +4.0%, while S&P 500 Growth slumped 2.1%; yield-seeking behavior also dominant theme, with S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats and Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend index +3.5% and +3.3% respectively; Momentum (powerful driver in past several...

The U.S. Census Bureau, long criticized for data gaps, is now thrust into the national spotlight as Congress debates a 15% budget cut for FY2027. Lawmakers argue the agency’s methodology has become politicized, citing recent appointments that could sway demographic...

Total eruption in the 10-day volatility of $MSTZ (-2x Strategy).. 477% may be an all time ETF record (I added $SPY for perspective), it's higher than $QBTX which got to 433% at one point. Crazy high vol is like degen...

$DIA leading all flows on Friday as the Dow Jones hits ATH and is running laps around SPX this year. This index is equiv of a rotary phone, price-weighted, invented when Grover Cleveland was POTUS, but it could be...

The episode reviews a dramatic market swing after a tough week for tech, highlighting the Dow’s historic breach of 50,000 points and a rapid rebound in chip stocks as investors shift from AI‑related anxiety to value‑focused buying. Analysts explain that...
Neil does a great job with the week ahead ... bears watching as we head into NFP Wed & CPI Fri.
Our nowcasts suggest that cyclical growth is going up and inflation is going down. No one forecasts this cocktail
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair in May. Warsh, praised for his professional pedigree and youthful appearance, is expected to secure a smooth Senate confirmation once the president ends his criticism...

Mutual funds are all in on the stock market At the start of 2026, US equity mutual funds held just 1.1% of asset in cash, the lowest level in 20 years of data history --Goldman https://t.co/BWZ5dGYfjM
Employment in S&P 500 companies is 18% of total US employment, but 35 cents of every dollar that goes into the SPX goes to 7 companies. This is a market structure problem and a major issue with our 401k system.
Used‑vehicle auction prices surged 2.4% in January, outpacing the typical 0.4% seasonal gain, as Manheim reports stronger retail demand and tighter wholesale supply. Larger-than‑usual tax refunds, driven by new 2025 tax credits, are fueling bigger down‑payments and pushing prices higher....

After its last earnings report, $IESC dropped 20%. It's made it all back and then some. https://t.co/hebBMdjVup

Trading in the tech sector makes up 30% of retail trading volumes--one of the highest shares since 2018 --Citi https://t.co/6pvw7muvfj
Technology stocks have tumbled sharply, prompting fears of a repeat of the 2000‑2002 tech bust. Analysts argue the current landscape differs, as major hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta—are slated to spend roughly $650 billion on AI infrastructure by 2026, with the...
ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/eQY6d47hAk Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @topdowncharts @MarketCharts @MikeZaccardi @BlakeMillardCFA @WillieDelwiche @alphacharts @AugurInfinity @SnippetFinance @EricBalchunas @TuttleCapital @Todd_Sohn

The last time a tech company announced a 100-year bond, it was Motorola in 1997 https://t.co/HKkDro85Ac https://t.co/w2S75DaL2J

The episode examines the sudden shift in market sentiment toward AI, moving from optimism to caution as investors question who truly benefits from the technology. It highlights emerging signs of a softer jobs market, including delayed employment data and rising...
JPM: "Similar to the risk-on trend seen among institutional investors, retail investor flows have been the strongest in the last six years, likely due to furlough payments and anticipated larger tax refunds of ~$600/household this year"

The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 making new 52-week highs has been expanding and just hit its highest level in the last year to end last week--@bespokeinvest https://t.co/BcNw0xKEmG

PayPal (PYPL) is trading at a steep discount, with its stock price near $40 representing a 7.6‑times earnings multiple. The company plans a $6 billion share‑repurchase program in 2026 that could retire roughly 16% of its diluted shares, boosting earnings per...

New week, new MRKT Call with Dan, @GuyAdami & @CarterBWorth We're talking Japan, Jobs and $JETS LIVE at 11am ET over on YouTube ⤵️ https://t.co/7WiuWoxeXK https://t.co/5yktisUdAm
175 basis points in cuts since September 2024 in response to labor market weakness. That's not ignoring.
The delayed fourth‑quarter GDP report, slated for Feb 20, is nowcast at a 2.7% annualized expansion, a slowdown from the 4.4% pace recorded in Q3 but still indicating resilience. Complementary data from the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index and recent PMI...

Forward P/E Ratios... Walmart $WMT: 39 Apple $AAPL: 30 Google $GOOGL: 24 Amazon $AMZN: 23 Microsoft $MSFT: 21 Nvidia $NVDA: 19 Meta $META: 19 https://t.co/BSywhjbEV0
% Below All-Time High S&P 500 $SPY: -1% Microsoft $MSFT: -26% Palo Alto Networks $PANW: -28% CrowdStrike $CRWD: -29% Synopsys $SNPS: -34% Palantir $PLTR: -34% Intuit $INTU: -45% AppLovin $APP: -45% Salesforce $CRM: -48% Oracle $ORCL: -56% ServiceNow $NOW: -57% Adobe $ADBE: -61%

Bank of America's own measure of trucking activity confirms the uptick in the ISMs https://t.co/BLUrghpS3Q

The stock market is more or less at all-time highs Same with small caps & foreign stocks Yet many name-brand companies are getting nuked right now Concentrated positions are very fun on the upside They can also wreck you on the downside https://t.co/Ng2WpRK35K https://t.co/nMR87p0Tgx

Americans expect the stock market (50%) and economy (49%) to improve over the next six months but predict higher inflation (62%) and unemployment (50%) @Gallup https://t.co/n8pQ2GIAHd
HSBC's Kettner: "Last week's rotation and unwinding of popular trades is unlikely to trigger a broad selloff – we stay constructive" DB's Reid on how this feels like 2000, when "an enormous rotation after the tech bubble burst" was enough to...
We are adding Salesforce and ServiceNow to the IVES AI 30 list after taking them off in early December with this software Armageddon sell-off the last few weeks assuming software/tech behemoths like Salesforce and ServiceNow are structurally broken…and we strongly...