10-Year Treasury Note Futures React to 4.5% Yield Peak. 5/13/26

Why It Matters

The 4.5% yield level signals tighter financing conditions, influencing corporate borrowing, equity valuations, and the Fed’s policy trajectory under new leadership.

Key Takeaways

• 10‑year Treasury yields hit 4.5% peak, highest since June 2025.
• Yields rose ~20 bps since May 7, driven by oil price surge.
• Despite higher yields, CME’s CVOL index showed lower volatility today.
• Upcoming data: jobless claims, retail sales, and multiple Fed speeches.
• Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as new Federal Reserve Chair.

Summary

The video focuses on the recent surge in 10‑year Treasury Note futures, which climbed to a 4.5% yield – the highest level since June 2025 – and examines what the move means for market participants.

Since the week of May 7, yields have risen roughly 20 basis points, mirroring the upward trend in oil prices. The presenter notes that each uptick in crude has been accompanied by a corresponding rise in Treasury yields, suggesting commodity‑driven inflation expectations are back in play.

Even with the yield jump, the CME Group’s CVOL index registered lower volatility, underscoring a decoupling of price swings from volatility metrics. The segment also highlights that the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, adding a leadership change to the backdrop.

Investors should watch the upcoming jobless‑claims and retail‑sales releases, as well as a slate of Fed speeches, for clues on whether the yield rally will persist. A higher‑rate environment under a new chair could reshape borrowing costs and risk‑premia across asset classes.

Original Description

Todd Colvin analyzes the recent surge in 10-Year Treasury Note yields, highlighting the move to 4.5%, the highest print seen since June 11 of the previous year. He notes the 20 bps rally since May 7 and its correlation with rising oil prices. Despite the upward pressure on yields, Colvin points out that the CVOL Index showed lower volatility. He also previews upcoming market catalysts, including jobless claims, retail sales data, and the Senate's official confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair.

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