Shelter Inflation Softens; Data Adjustments Explain Apparent Spike
The shelter data DOUBLE counts as they include the data that was missing in October last year during the shutdown. So NO, there is no NASTY jump in shelter inflation. It is actually a pretty soft report outside of energy.
ESLR Reform Proved Liquidity Forecast Right
Remember when a lot of pundits said that liquidity would weaken this year, and that risk assets would not get the fuel? I kept referring to eSLR as an overlooked reform, and it has been pretty damn spot on. This...
Banks Overstated Tariff Risks; Rollbacks Reveal Bias
Everyone and their mother at investment banks screamed about how tariffs would increase inflation and decrease growth last year, while literally no one seems to care about the impact now that they’re basically being rolled back. I don’t think I’ve...
Trump Signals Openness to Iran Uranium Deal, Even if Flawed
*TRUMP ON ENRICHED URANIUM IN IRAN: WE'LL GET THAT AT SOME POINT Is it just me, or does this sound like a guy willing to cut a deal now? Even if a bad one?
ESLR Reform Fuels Unprecedented Repo Activity Surge
Not since the QE heyday of the first Covid lockdown have we seen repo activity surge like this. The driver is the eSLR reform - still vastly underappreciated by many. We’ve been on top of this and see it as THE...
Top Funds Begin Inquiring About Hanta
OK, I am actually starting to get questions on Hanta from some of the biggest funds now
No Agreement Reached on Hormuz Passage Terms
To be honest, it doesn’t really look like they agreed on the terms for Hormuz passage this time either
U.S. Rapidly Erodes Soft Power, Alienates All Allies
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a country lose soft power at the pace the US currently is. They’ve pissed off every single ally.
Trump Announces US Aid for Ships Exiting Hormuz Monday
*TRUMP SAYS US TO HELP SOME SHIPS LEAVE HORMUZ STARTING MONDAY Here comes your weekly dose of Monday hope-ium
Emerging Markets Will Bear Shortages; West Pays Higher Prices
I am tired of hearing alarmism in the West about food and energy shortages. The reality, while sad, is that emerging market countries will bear the vast majority of these shortages. The West will simply pay higher prices to redirect supply away...
Backlog Outpaces CapEx Bubble, Portfolio Soars
Why do we keep talking about a CapEx bubble, when the backlog of the same companies is rising (substantially) faster? That and more is found in our very well received monthly portfolio update on @RealVision .. We remain solidly up...
Second Global Energy Crisis Sparks EU Import Push, Criticisms
We are once again facing a substantial energy crisis in the world, which is the second in just a few years. And it increasingly seems that everyone is looking out for themselves geopolitically in the current environment. Meanwhile, the EU...
Mechanical Month-End Rebalancing Signals Sell Strong, Buy Weak
Before we pop champagne, this price action feels mechanical. Clear sell-the-strong, buy-the-weak into the close of the month - likely month-end rebalancing. Need more of this in early May to trust the rotation.
US Growth Accelerates; Oil Deal Uncertain, Risk Assets Undervalued
So, I have quite clearly been too optimistic around settling terms with Iran (it admittedly looked like a deal to everyone that Friday a few weeks back), and it seems like both sides think they can afford to be strategically...
China's Potential Oil Buying Strike Mirrors Missing Supply
Has anyone thought about the possibility that China is on a full buyers strike in oil markets? That would remove (at least in oil barrels) almost the same barrels that we are currently missing