Energy Prices Far Below 2022 Peaks, Economy Remains Stable
On a serious note, this utter nonsense from Luke doesn’t pass the simplest of reality tests. If you look at weighted prices across oil, gas, electricity, etc. in the West, we remain miles below peak 2022 prices - and those prices weren’t high enough to break the economy.
Higher GDP Buffers Developed Economies From Oil Shocks
It is not really a controversial statement When more GDP is produced or Energy Unit - the price of the energy unit becomes a little less relevant on a running basis The US economy (and other developed economies) can better...
Seeking Update on Tech-to-Industrials Rotation Status
Can we get an update from the “tech to industrials rotation is on” crowd ?
Accurate Oil Bottom Forecast Highlights Demand Overestimation
We essentially nailed the exact bottom in our coverage at @RealVision and Nowcast IQ, largely thanks to our nowcasting, which showed that conditions had stabilized and, in some cases, were already beginning to improve. Oil futures are now already below pre-blockade...
Scarcity Cycles to Glut: Tight Oil Market Warning
After every period of scarcity comes a glut. Every.Single.Time... Remember that when watching a tight oil market currently
GDP per Capita Can Be Inflated by Tax‑driven Accounting
And just to give one example of why GDP per capita is a useless metric: Look at Ireland here. Do you really think that Ireland is so much wealthier than the US and all its European counterparts? Ireland has made a business...
US Inflation Near Forecast, Boosts Rate Mean‑Reversion Play
The US inflation report was clearly impacted by the Hormuz crisis, but it once again came very close to the Nowcast IQ (https://t.co/00SY5qimgl) estimate, just 4 bps off on core and slightly more on headline. Our dovish lean was also...
Dry Bulk Surge Boosts Outlook Despite Weak Tanker Flow
Dry Bulk transits are up a lot in recent days, while the tanker flow has been underwhelming since the cease fire Overall, there is still sufficient sequential progress to remain very upbeat imho
Americans Push Back on NATO Funding, Demand Self‑Reliance
I get that many Americans don’t want to de facto pay for NATO anymore. I get it, I understand that the US paid more than others for a long time. It is all very well understood. We can take care...
Markets May Ignore Oil Flow Glitches If Outlook Improves
I am fully aware that oil-flows are not normalized tomorrow or next week It is not the point. The market will look through that if the sequential outlook improves Think of e.g. the spring for 2020, where markets improved even before...
Hormuz Crisis Ended; Pundits Still Stuck in Denial
The Hormuz crisis is over, but most energy pundits still have not gotten the memo, as they suffer from the Fauci Syndrome.
Deal‑Maker's Flashy Tactics Reveal Empty Negotiation Substance
“The Art of the Deal” might just sell out again. From threatening to end a civilization to adopting an already existing 10-point plan as a ‘workable basis’ in less than a day - amazing negotiator.
Trump Edging Toward Iran Nuclear‑deal Dilemma
Nuclear bomb or deal? Is that the Trade-off for Iran now? I don’t think we can fully write off that Trump is getting to that point
Follow X, the Ultimate Counter‑indicator, Opposite Consensus Wins
X is the best counter-indicator on Earth - Much better than Jim Cramer Always do the opposite of the consensus on X
Insults Reveal We're Nearing Peak Oil
The amount of insults I have received based on this tells me that we are very very close to peak oil here
