Iran Declares Iraq Exempt From Hormuz Restrictions
My thesis is already aging well. "Iran says Iraq exempt from any Strait of Hormuz restrictions" https://t.co/VSTaM2D34T
Sovereignty Demands Own Supply Chains, Not Paying Iran
This is an analysis, not my personal preferred outcome. I personally consider it pathetic to pay a toll to the Iranians, for example, but you are not sovereign unless you control your own supply chains in the current environment, as I...
EU‑US Alliance Crumbling Before Our Eyes
We are watching the complete meltdown of the EU / US relationship in real time currently
Neo‑con Trump Policies Spark Inflation, Hurt Bonds
While the combination of tariffs and spending cuts in 2025 proved net disinflationary (benefiting USD bond markets), the current dramatic neo-con shift under the Trump administration is the exact opposite - inflationary and negative for bonds
Oil Flow Could Fully Recover Within Four Weeks
Tomorrow, I am going to show that there is actually a path towards a fully recovered oil-flow in 4 weeks from now, even despite a situation where Trump doesn't really end the war, or where he leaves with solving the...
Market Likely Bottomed as WSJ Joins Fin
My best guess is that we have bottomed now. At least it is typically peak fears when WSJ finally catch up on an angle that FinTwit (and I) have been talking about for a month https://t.co/9Vh4UTZoTP
Oil Slumps,
Sure, it looks bad in Oil.. But we are pretty far from 2021/2022 in Nat Gas, food, electricity etc.. Still a world apart..
Markets Show Capitulation: Yields Drop, USD Rises, Equities Fall
We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation. When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like...
Powell Says Fed Tools Can't Curb Supply Shocks, Halting Hikes
*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS This is in my opinion the right take, and it completely punctures the probability of rate hikes in the US. They are going to sit this one through
War's Goal: Reopen Strait of Hormuz
So the main objective of the war is now to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was fully open before the war started. Got it https://t.co/4zzh9wHvya
Helium and Sulfur Shortages Threaten Mining and EVs
We are just weeks from major disruptions to mining, EVs, and all such things due to Helium and Sulfur shortages It is not the end of the world, but it will likely end the business cycle unless solved within 7-10 days...
Decision Looms: Toll Split or Boots on Ground
Seems like the choice is 1) Deal that includes a toll/revenue split on a Hormuz toll 2) Boots on the ground And we will know more by monday
Today's Energy Crisis Starkly Differs From 2021‑22
There is still a world of difference between the 2021/2022 energy crisis and the current one. https://t.co/Uti2V6LX6d
AI Survives Helium Crunch; Automotive and Industrial Chips Don’t
I’ve spent my Saturday diving into the Helium supply chain. Spoiler: AI might survive this wave longer, but automotive and industrial chips? Not so much.
Silver to Slip Below $50 by Year‑End
I think I will end up being right that Silver trades below 50 by year-end. Remember the insults I received?
Raising Rates over a Closed Oil Strait Is Absurd
There is nothing more idiotic than raising interest rates because a strait with oil is closed.
Qatar's Gas Share Is ~3.5% Globally, Not 17%
Fake news 17% of Qatars export capacity of Nat Gas which is probably like 3.5% of the global supply So much misinformation on this platform
Billionaire Smuggles GPUs to China for Gaming Passion
Smuggling GPUs to China despite already having a net worth of $500 million Pure love for the game https://t.co/J5bqwSwL3F
Iranian Attacks Surge as US Loses Grip, Markets Wobble
Yes, the U.S. is losing control of the situation in many ways. Iranian attacks have re-intensified, and their hit ratio has increased. Trump's "we've already won" comments are looking increasingly bizarre. Here’s what it means for markets, macroeconomics, and more.
Iran's Artillery Intensity Escalates, Striking Harder than Before
Iran is firing MORE and they are hitting MORE per shot than during the first days of the conflict. Not good.. https://t.co/IWj7Szy0jL
Iran Expands Energy Targets Amid Rising Gulf Strike Success
A brief update on what we know about the strikes in the Middle East right now: Israel and the US targeted South Pars, a joint Iranian-Qatari gas field. In response, the Iranians have now labeled all energy infrastructure in the region...
Europe's Reluctance Highlights Trump‑Era Ally Aggression
FWIW, I personally think Europe should participate in keeping the Strait safe, but the lack of willingness to do so is obviously another sign of the impact of nonstop rhetorical aggression against allies since Trump took office
Input Cost Surge Won’t Halt Cycle Until 2027
I get why people fear that the input cost spike that we have seen over the past month will end the business cycle, but it is probably more of a 2027 story.. There is a whole "time-line" that we need...
Trump Praises Oil Price Hikes, Ignores Affordability Concerns
Always a good spin on things. Suddenly, no words on affordability now *TRUMP: US MAKES A LOT OF MONEY WHEN OIL PRICES GO UP
Korea’s March Exports Show Semiconductor Supply Still Robust
Korea btw posted strong exports for the first 10 days of March, so the semi-trade is NOT disrupted yet, and this notion that Helium is running out for Hynix and TSMC is so far 100% BS as they have 5-6...
Positioning Surveys Overstate Market's Max Long Status
Most positioning surveys hint that markets are Max Long. I don’t Think that is true - see e.g the below https://t.co/0m7dt8z2e2
Trump Declares Iran War Essentially over, Questions Israeli Ties
Trump says Iran war 'pretty much' over - that is a TACO, as far as I can judge... Next question. Do the Israelis and Iranians agree?
Patience Saves; Oil Slides Amid Trump Hormuz Threat
I am glad that I have remained patient so far. If you had jumped the bandwagon on oil this morning, you would have been 20% down ish by now. I know the below is not a guarantee, but I stick...
ETH Outperformed Oil over the Past Five Years
Had you bought oil this morning, you would have underperformed ETH over the past 5 years
Nowcast Shows Shipping Volumes Collapse, Dragging Economy
Some weekly inputs are coming into our nowcast-model today, and it looks pretty painful to be honest. Especially in growth terms. The shipping/trucking/export/import volumes look bad. Really bad. So this is starting to impact the economy (already)..
Saudi Cuts Oil Output; Shipping Bottleneck, Not Supply
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
Inflation, Debt, War Clash with Trump's Promises
This is inflation, unfunded spending and war. The exact opposite of what Trump has campaigned on.
Strait Closure Won’t End the Business Cycle
I agree that a prolonged closure of the strait = business cycle is done. I still think the underappreciated view is that the cycle survives this (again)
US Economy's Quiet Bullish Turn Amid Bearish Sentiment
Everyone is getting increasingly bearish here, and while I understand the concern, the macro backdrop is improving a lot, especially in the US - that we can measure live with Nowcast IQ There is a very very underappreciated comeback in the...
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Impacted, Still Open
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
ISM Manufacturing Prices Misleading; Soft CPI Ahead
Some focus given to ISM Manufacturing Prices back in 70. In my opinion very misleading for now (and solely based on energy). But the jury is obviously out. I expect a couple of incredibly soft CPI reports coming up.
Short‑seller Paper May Mark Software Bottom; CEOs Mimic Dorsey
The Citrini doom-paper could have marked the bottom for large-cap software, with increasing signs of it being a short-seller paid paper. And maybe software CEOs will slowly but surely follow the Jack Dorsey playbook. Lay off 40 percent of staff,...
Buy Stablecoins, Not Mastercard, for This Narrative
If you want to sell Mastercard on that story, you should probably buy Stablecoin exposure (but markets don't get that)
Trump's Tariff Threats Persist, Undermining Economic Certainty
If you thought Trump would stop throwing around tariffs right, left, and centre after Friday’s ruling, think twice… I still think the impact is blown out of proportion by the media, but it does affect economic sentiment due to the lack...
Falling CPI‑PCE Spread Signals Declining Inflation, Defying Q4 GDP
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
Philadelphia Fed: Economic Activity Rises While Inflation Falls
Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
Strategists Misread CapEx, Overhype Free Cash Flow
I love how boomer strategists present the chart on free cash flows from the Mag 7 as rocket science. We learned on the first days at university that CapEx means less FCF in that year. Do these guys understand anything whatsoever...
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
New Investors Shift From Tech to Industrials, Energy, Metals
How is the "newborn" buy industrials, energy and metals instead of tech crowd feeling today?
Market Shifts to AI Fear, Not Bubble, Concerns
The market is more in “AI fear” mode than “AI bubble” mode currently Everyone fears the left tail in their business
Cyclical Growth Rises While Inflation Falls—A Rare Forecast
Our nowcasts suggest that cyclical growth is going up and inflation is going down. No one forecasts this cocktail
