Transportation Index Plummets, Sparking Recession Fears
Ooooooooh no - the wheels are more coming off the Dow Jones transportation index. Recession time ? 😂😂😂 https://t.co/m69XD0nqCb
Nowcast IQ Nails US PMI, Flags Europe Slowdown
The best Nowcast data on Earth? Solid PMIs from the US were just released, showing that economic momentum is gaining pace despite the war, and this was spot on with our live growth data from Nowcast IQ. The same applies to...
Andurand's 52% April Loss Highlights Ceasefire Risk
*ANDURAND LOST 52% IN APRIL FIRST HALF AS CEASEFIRE HURT OIL BET Are people paying 20% performance for Pierre Andurand to be max levered long oil always? It seems like it
Higher Jet Fuel Costs Will Naturally Reduce Flights
The market will take care of the jetfuel scarcities itself in Europe for example. When flight prices are up 2-3x for the summer season, fewer people will fly. It is as simple as that.
Trump's Recent Nuclear Remarks Signal Imminent Deal
And with Trumps comments just 20-30 minutes ago on a framework on the nuclear stuff, it seems like we are approaching an actual deal here
From Mockery to Momentum: Need Sequential Progress
Remember when I laid out this thesis 10-11 sessions ago? And how everyone called me an idiot? Having said that, we soon need to see some further sequential progress or else the momentum will fade
Oil Shock Less Severe; Iran Likely to Restore Flow
Of course the world cannot withstand a 20% supply shock of oil for quarters There are just two weird assumptions included in that: 1) The supply shock is not 20% effectively - far from it actually. The bypassing of the strait...
Energy Prices Far Below 2022 Peaks, Economy Remains Stable
On a serious note, this utter nonsense from Luke doesn’t pass the simplest of reality tests. If you look at weighted prices across oil, gas, electricity, etc. in the West, we remain miles below peak 2022 prices - and those prices...
Higher GDP Buffers Developed Economies From Oil Shocks
It is not really a controversial statement When more GDP is produced or Energy Unit - the price of the energy unit becomes a little less relevant on a running basis The US economy (and other developed economies) can better...
Seeking Update on Tech-to-Industrials Rotation Status
Can we get an update from the “tech to industrials rotation is on” crowd ?
Accurate Oil Bottom Forecast Highlights Demand Overestimation
We essentially nailed the exact bottom in our coverage at @RealVision and Nowcast IQ, largely thanks to our nowcasting, which showed that conditions had stabilized and, in some cases, were already beginning to improve. Oil futures are now already below pre-blockade...
Scarcity Cycles to Glut: Tight Oil Market Warning
After every period of scarcity comes a glut. Every.Single.Time... Remember that when watching a tight oil market currently
GDP per Capita Can Be Inflated by Tax‑driven Accounting
And just to give one example of why GDP per capita is a useless metric: Look at Ireland here. Do you really think that Ireland is so much wealthier than the US and all its European counterparts? Ireland has made a business...
US Inflation Near Forecast, Boosts Rate Mean‑Reversion Play
The US inflation report was clearly impacted by the Hormuz crisis, but it once again came very close to the Nowcast IQ (https://t.co/00SY5qimgl) estimate, just 4 bps off on core and slightly more on headline. Our dovish lean was also...
Dry Bulk Surge Boosts Outlook Despite Weak Tanker Flow
Dry Bulk transits are up a lot in recent days, while the tanker flow has been underwhelming since the cease fire Overall, there is still sufficient sequential progress to remain very upbeat imho
Americans Push Back on NATO Funding, Demand Self‑Reliance
I get that many Americans don’t want to de facto pay for NATO anymore. I get it, I understand that the US paid more than others for a long time. It is all very well understood. We can take care...
Markets May Ignore Oil Flow Glitches If Outlook Improves
I am fully aware that oil-flows are not normalized tomorrow or next week It is not the point. The market will look through that if the sequential outlook improves Think of e.g. the spring for 2020, where markets improved even before...
Hormuz Crisis Ended; Pundits Still Stuck in Denial
The Hormuz crisis is over, but most energy pundits still have not gotten the memo, as they suffer from the Fauci Syndrome.
Deal‑Maker's Flashy Tactics Reveal Empty Negotiation Substance
“The Art of the Deal” might just sell out again. From threatening to end a civilization to adopting an already existing 10-point plan as a ‘workable basis’ in less than a day - amazing negotiator.
Trump Edging Toward Iran Nuclear‑deal Dilemma
Nuclear bomb or deal? Is that the Trade-off for Iran now? I don’t think we can fully write off that Trump is getting to that point
Follow X, the Ultimate Counter‑indicator, Opposite Consensus Wins
X is the best counter-indicator on Earth - Much better than Jim Cramer Always do the opposite of the consensus on X
Insults Reveal We're Nearing Peak Oil
The amount of insults I have received based on this tells me that we are very very close to peak oil here
Iran Declares Iraq Exempt From Hormuz Restrictions
My thesis is already aging well. "Iran says Iraq exempt from any Strait of Hormuz restrictions" https://t.co/VSTaM2D34T
Sovereignty Demands Own Supply Chains, Not Paying Iran
This is an analysis, not my personal preferred outcome. I personally consider it pathetic to pay a toll to the Iranians, for example, but you are not sovereign unless you control your own supply chains in the current environment, as I...
EU‑US Alliance Crumbling Before Our Eyes
We are watching the complete meltdown of the EU / US relationship in real time currently
Neo‑con Trump Policies Spark Inflation, Hurt Bonds
While the combination of tariffs and spending cuts in 2025 proved net disinflationary (benefiting USD bond markets), the current dramatic neo-con shift under the Trump administration is the exact opposite - inflationary and negative for bonds
Oil Flow Could Fully Recover Within Four Weeks
Tomorrow, I am going to show that there is actually a path towards a fully recovered oil-flow in 4 weeks from now, even despite a situation where Trump doesn't really end the war, or where he leaves with solving the...
Market Likely Bottomed as WSJ Joins Fin
My best guess is that we have bottomed now. At least it is typically peak fears when WSJ finally catch up on an angle that FinTwit (and I) have been talking about for a month https://t.co/9Vh4UTZoTP
Oil Slumps,
Sure, it looks bad in Oil.. But we are pretty far from 2021/2022 in Nat Gas, food, electricity etc.. Still a world apart..
Markets Show Capitulation: Yields Drop, USD Rises, Equities Fall
We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation. When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like...
Powell Says Fed Tools Can't Curb Supply Shocks, Halting Hikes
*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS This is in my opinion the right take, and it completely punctures the probability of rate hikes in the US. They are going to sit this one through
War's Goal: Reopen Strait of Hormuz
So the main objective of the war is now to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was fully open before the war started. Got it https://t.co/4zzh9wHvya
Helium and Sulfur Shortages Threaten Mining and EVs
We are just weeks from major disruptions to mining, EVs, and all such things due to Helium and Sulfur shortages It is not the end of the world, but it will likely end the business cycle unless solved within 7-10 days...
Decision Looms: Toll Split or Boots on Ground
Seems like the choice is 1) Deal that includes a toll/revenue split on a Hormuz toll 2) Boots on the ground And we will know more by monday
Today's Energy Crisis Starkly Differs From 2021‑22
There is still a world of difference between the 2021/2022 energy crisis and the current one. https://t.co/Uti2V6LX6d
AI Survives Helium Crunch; Automotive and Industrial Chips Don’t
I’ve spent my Saturday diving into the Helium supply chain. Spoiler: AI might survive this wave longer, but automotive and industrial chips? Not so much.
Silver to Slip Below $50 by Year‑End
I think I will end up being right that Silver trades below 50 by year-end. Remember the insults I received?
Raising Rates over a Closed Oil Strait Is Absurd
There is nothing more idiotic than raising interest rates because a strait with oil is closed.
Qatar's Gas Share Is ~3.5% Globally, Not 17%
Fake news 17% of Qatars export capacity of Nat Gas which is probably like 3.5% of the global supply So much misinformation on this platform
Billionaire Smuggles GPUs to China for Gaming Passion
Smuggling GPUs to China despite already having a net worth of $500 million Pure love for the game https://t.co/J5bqwSwL3F
Iranian Attacks Surge as US Loses Grip, Markets Wobble
Yes, the U.S. is losing control of the situation in many ways. Iranian attacks have re-intensified, and their hit ratio has increased. Trump's "we've already won" comments are looking increasingly bizarre. Here’s what it means for markets, macroeconomics, and more.
Iran's Artillery Intensity Escalates, Striking Harder than Before
Iran is firing MORE and they are hitting MORE per shot than during the first days of the conflict. Not good.. https://t.co/IWj7Szy0jL
Iran Expands Energy Targets Amid Rising Gulf Strike Success
A brief update on what we know about the strikes in the Middle East right now: Israel and the US targeted South Pars, a joint Iranian-Qatari gas field. In response, the Iranians have now labeled all energy infrastructure in the region...
Europe's Reluctance Highlights Trump‑Era Ally Aggression
FWIW, I personally think Europe should participate in keeping the Strait safe, but the lack of willingness to do so is obviously another sign of the impact of nonstop rhetorical aggression against allies since Trump took office
Input Cost Surge Won’t Halt Cycle Until 2027
I get why people fear that the input cost spike that we have seen over the past month will end the business cycle, but it is probably more of a 2027 story.. There is a whole "time-line" that we need...
Trump Praises Oil Price Hikes, Ignores Affordability Concerns
Always a good spin on things. Suddenly, no words on affordability now *TRUMP: US MAKES A LOT OF MONEY WHEN OIL PRICES GO UP
Korea’s March Exports Show Semiconductor Supply Still Robust
Korea btw posted strong exports for the first 10 days of March, so the semi-trade is NOT disrupted yet, and this notion that Helium is running out for Hynix and TSMC is so far 100% BS as they have 5-6...
Positioning Surveys Overstate Market's Max Long Status
Most positioning surveys hint that markets are Max Long. I don’t Think that is true - see e.g the below https://t.co/0m7dt8z2e2
Trump Declares Iran War Essentially over, Questions Israeli Ties
Trump says Iran war 'pretty much' over - that is a TACO, as far as I can judge... Next question. Do the Israelis and Iranians agree?
Patience Saves; Oil Slides Amid Trump Hormuz Threat
I am glad that I have remained patient so far. If you had jumped the bandwagon on oil this morning, you would have been 20% down ish by now. I know the below is not a guarantee, but I stick...