ETH Outperformed Oil over the Past Five Years
Had you bought oil this morning, you would have underperformed ETH over the past 5 years
Nowcast Shows Shipping Volumes Collapse, Dragging Economy
Some weekly inputs are coming into our nowcast-model today, and it looks pretty painful to be honest. Especially in growth terms. The shipping/trucking/export/import volumes look bad. Really bad. So this is starting to impact the economy (already)..
Saudi Cuts Oil Output; Shipping Bottleneck, Not Supply
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
Inflation, Debt, War Clash with Trump's Promises
This is inflation, unfunded spending and war. The exact opposite of what Trump has campaigned on.
Strait Closure Won’t End the Business Cycle
I agree that a prolonged closure of the strait = business cycle is done. I still think the underappreciated view is that the cycle survives this (again)
US Economy's Quiet Bullish Turn Amid Bearish Sentiment
Everyone is getting increasingly bearish here, and while I understand the concern, the macro backdrop is improving a lot, especially in the US - that we can measure live with Nowcast IQ There is a very very underappreciated comeback in the...
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Impacted, Still Open
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
ISM Manufacturing Prices Misleading; Soft CPI Ahead
Some focus given to ISM Manufacturing Prices back in 70. In my opinion very misleading for now (and solely based on energy). But the jury is obviously out. I expect a couple of incredibly soft CPI reports coming up.
Short‑seller Paper May Mark Software Bottom; CEOs Mimic Dorsey
The Citrini doom-paper could have marked the bottom for large-cap software, with increasing signs of it being a short-seller paid paper. And maybe software CEOs will slowly but surely follow the Jack Dorsey playbook. Lay off 40 percent of staff,...
Buy Stablecoins, Not Mastercard, for This Narrative
If you want to sell Mastercard on that story, you should probably buy Stablecoin exposure (but markets don't get that)
Trump's Tariff Threats Persist, Undermining Economic Certainty
If you thought Trump would stop throwing around tariffs right, left, and centre after Friday’s ruling, think twice… I still think the impact is blown out of proportion by the media, but it does affect economic sentiment due to the lack...
Falling CPI‑PCE Spread Signals Declining Inflation, Defying Q4 GDP
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
Philadelphia Fed: Economic Activity Rises While Inflation Falls
Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
Strategists Misread CapEx, Overhype Free Cash Flow
I love how boomer strategists present the chart on free cash flows from the Mag 7 as rocket science. We learned on the first days at university that CapEx means less FCF in that year. Do these guys understand anything whatsoever...
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
New Investors Shift From Tech to Industrials, Energy, Metals
How is the "newborn" buy industrials, energy and metals instead of tech crowd feeling today?
Market Shifts to AI Fear, Not Bubble, Concerns
The market is more in “AI fear” mode than “AI bubble” mode currently Everyone fears the left tail in their business
Cyclical Growth Rises While Inflation Falls—A Rare Forecast
Our nowcasts suggest that cyclical growth is going up and inflation is going down. No one forecasts this cocktail