Japan's MOF Profits Billions, Poised for Yen Intervention
I get the fun in dunking on the MOF for spending 73BN USD and seeing the JPY stay at 160. Same people dunked on them for selling yen and buying USD to weaken the yen at 85. The MOF is making bank. Bought UST's and selling them 90% higher in yen today. Will intervention work? Maybe maybe not. But the MOF has 1TN of USD at a massive profit to give it a go.
Equity Funding Could Become New Standard for Capex
Why equity 101? Today's Google issuance (something i have been forecasting for 6 months) may be a one off or may be a start of a broad use of funding via equity issuance for all the capex folks and even...
Same DSR Setup Works Again, No Changes Needed
In June of 2024 we wrote a DSR specific to dispersion and it helped us position for the month of July and the denouement on August 5th. Today the setup is very similar in all ways. I hardly...
Alpha Lies in Understanding Managers' Long‑Term Strategies
The alpha from 13F's isn't duplicating stale positions. It's from identifying investment strategies over long time horizons of various individual managers and managers in homogenous cohorts and seeing why these folks buy and sell what they buy and sell and...
Debt Buybacks Boost Credit but Rating Stays Junk
Using preferred and equity issuance to raise cash to buy back corporate debt is positive for the credit and for its credit rating. A credit rating is good for one thing. New issuance of debt. Iirc S&P global already...
MSTR Secures 5.5% Yield Debt, Financed at 11.5%
Essentially the company bought back debt at 5.54 fiat yield which they raised proceeds at 11.5% So here's the math. $MSTR paid 92 for these bonds That price is calc by dividing what they paid 1.38BN by the notional they bought...
MicroStrategy Spends $1.5B on Bond Buyback, Not BTC
$MSTR just bought 1.5BN of its 0's of 2029 for 92. Paying up 3% over prior close While funding with ATM stock and 11.5% $STRC they "bought back" a bond with a 4% yield to put. The "good news"...
Avoid ETF Hype; Stick to Your Own Risk‑aligned Beta
Quotes like these at ATH from self interested parties shilling ETF's encourage excessive speculation instead of soberly advocating ALWAYS own beta at your comfortable risk target.
Diversified Unlevered Beta Outperforms, Stay Chill
Bubble or no bubble. Always own diversified beta including gold, bonds, tips, commodities, and equities. Our unlevered versions continue to outperform and are much more chill. https://t.co/C7NQkuttfM
Costless Collars Thrive When Spot and Vol Rise
Great stuff. Stock replacement trades in a vol up spot up don't work. But costless collars are extremely attractive
Today's S&P 500 Generational
Odds that today is the generational top for SPX? How close to zero can you get.
BTC Shifts Toward Digital Gold, Not Lambo Gains
If you want BTC to be digital gold things are going your way. If you want BTC to provide lambo's and speculative generational wealth things are going very poorly. BTC vol is very low and trending low. Correlation to gold is...
NVDA Guidance Lifts Semiconductor Forecasts, Stocks Underreact
Probably obvious to everyone but here it is. The big change in earnings expectations for semiconductors occured soon after Jensen Huang took the stage at $NVDA GTC developers conference and gave forward guidance. That was March 16-17th. Analyst...
Track Leveraged ETF Rebalance Flow with Two Simple Data Points
How do you build your own tracker of leveraged etf rebalance flow 101 You need two pieces of data per index/commodity/single name you are tracking and one simple formula Data 1. The AUM of all leveraged ETF's that exist on the underlying...
Ben's New Interview Revisits 1987 on Our Channel
Ben, the glue that keeps dampedspring together, just launched his own content on our YT feed. He interviewed me about 1987. It's fun. First installment here. https://t.co/esbKNwEi5s