Patience and Proper Sizing Beat Momentum Traps
7133 SPX is to $CAR at 700 As $CAR at 240 is to SPX at ? Momo and short squeezes can run in your face a while. They've run in my face from 6980. Patience and right sized
Fed's Balance Sheet Fix: Impact Is Modest
The impact of completely correcting the UST duration holdings of the Fed 101🧵 Despite the warnings and hyperventilation of the usual suspects, correcting the Fed's balance sheet is just not that big a deal. Today the balance sheet has a...
Markets Likely Drift West as Rally's Momentum Fades
To go north east requires evidence of a disinflationary AI miracle. To go east of the dotted arc requires extreme policymaker easing. To go southwest requires the impossible - A hawkish Fed who cares about inflation. Most...
Treasury's Bill Swap Is Pure Cash Management, No Market Effect
The Treasury bought back 15BN in bills, notes, and bonds maturing in less than a year. In order to fund that purchase they issued or will issue 15BN of Tbills of similar but different maturity to better align the...
Sell ATM Shares at 1.25MNAV to Fund Reserves
Need to raise USD reserves 1. to bring dividend coverage back to 24 months? 2. Fund the put dates of the converts At 1.25MNAV there's a perfect way to do that cheaply. ATM common share selling. It's a no brainer $MSTR
GDP Graph Fails to Reflect Recent Decline
Hardly look at this broken model anymore since the gold imports mistake over a year ago. That said my pet peeve max annoying report detail is still broken. GDP now went down from 1.3 to 1.2 and yet...
Ideal Fed Policy: Minimal Meetings, No Politics, 2% Inflation
My wish list 8 meetings and press conferences Muzzle governors and presidents from discussing and writing about monetary policy Keep the dots Forward guidance when useful (typically at zero fed funds rate, or Pivots) Smaller balance sheet with no MBS and no long duration assets...
Real Growth Drives Higher Rates in Strong Nations
What makes a country great is real growth generated by population and productivity growth and a debt that grows roughly with the real economy. A great country like that would have higher interest rates than countries with dwindling population and...
Supply Shock Doesn't Cause Rate Drop; Leverage Fueled by FOMO
Best section so far is between 35:00-38:00 where both @BobEUnlimited and @AahanPrometheus debunk the absolute nonsense of real rates falling due to a supply shock leading to a TINA like capital flow injection. People can lever up because of Momo/fomo...
Gamma Squeeze Likely Ends as CAR Meets Demand
Gamma squeezes end when the company fills all the demand. Should be a this week imho. $CAR https://t.co/pqIlOKiO3F
Momentum, Not Fundamentals, Drives Trade Timing
On 3/30 I was covering all equity shorts. SPX was 6320 Momentum was bearish Positioning was being deleveraged Analyst earnings expectations were still for YoY 17% EPS growth But because markets expect that growth to disappoint multiples had fallen to 20x which...
Oil Dip to $60 Could Lift S&P 10%
While oil gurus and geopolitical experts were opining with confidence on the potential outcomes we said we don't know shit. Here is our DSR from 3/22. https://t.co/268Hkj6EKA Herein we just considered scenarios and how they play out in macro based...
Leveraged ETF Buying Likely Absorbs Market Stall
Seller but jeez. The "Stall" and leveraged ETF buying will likely absorb. Of course deep call rolls at the close is delta for sale. https://t.co/RXUSfWqvTr
Holding BTC, Targeting $84k, Shorting MSTR at 1
Back when i bought BTC at 69,420 I had a plan. Sell at JoshMan_Oracle price of 84,000 but by shorting $MSTR at 1.25 MNAV or higher. That's still the plan $IBIT
International Stocks and Bonds Outpace US Markets
Not surprisingly VEA is crushing SPY Gotta own NON US Non USD stocks and bonds
Cumulative Preferreds Offer No Price Protection, Hurt Equity Upside
Trading preferreds for 37 years I'll mention that a preferred being "cumulative" doesn't help it hold its price when it stops paying its dividend even though it accumulates future unpaid dividend obligations. In fact the cumulative nature simply hurts...
STRC Dividend Demand Wanes, BTC Funding Tilts; MSTR Rallies
Dividend capture demand for $STRC is now in a drawdown if they didn't get out in time. That should massively reduce the upward pressure to 100 over the next month and if the company is unwilling to sell below...
Fed's Lax Stance Hurts 60/40 Returns, Needs Tighter Policy
Lot of folks suggest the Fed is "not restrictive". Based on the level of assets or the some cherry picked recent rally in assets. They may be right but its also true that if you bought a standard 60/40...
Beta Tweaks and Cash Raise Boost Portfolio Performance
Tweaks to beta yesterday (raising cash) Sold some VEA -0.3% Today GSG -0.3% Today GLD -1.2% Today SPY +0.8% Today Net net those worked.
Six Bullish Triggers That Could Defy My Bearish Stance
I just went max bearish equities. However plenty of bull cases exist. The six big things that can make me wrong 1) Collapse of long term oil prices back to the low's 2) The passage of a highly stimulative fiscal...
Low‑risk Portfolio Gains ~9.5% YTD with DS Strategies
100% Allocated DS GlobalBeta up 7%YTD. I've been 80% invested basically. Up 5.6%. DSAlpha which buys/sells options using my AUM as a resource has PNL of 3.9% of AUM YTD. Yes you can add them. Total is...
Portfolio Shifts to Cash, Short US Equities, and Put Spreads
On the close. Raised cash in Beta by 10% of AUM trimming commodities, gold, and US and ROW Equities. Up to 30% Cash. In Alpha went max short US Equities. Two and Six Month Put Spreads totaling 4%...
IGV Bulls Rugged at Open, Buyers Hold Below
Man the $IGV bulls got rugged today on the open today and taking another leg down. Still a buyer below. Weird action tbh
80
Dec CL Crude is 77.5 If spot crude never trades below 80 for the balance of 2026 what will be the low for equities SPX Cash from here
Fast 6865 SPX Move, 60:1 Odds on 6180 Put Butterfly
Yep 6865 SPX cash happens fast. 60:1 long shot odds available for a 100 point 6180 put butterfly. Yes please.
Pricing, Not Diversification, Drives Gold’s Portfolio Rescue
The great failure of 60/40 and risk parity was holding bonds at ZIRP "for portfolio diversification benefit". Pricing matters. Today Gold and commodities have saved every portfolio that was smart enough to hold them. Daily you hear about...
Bold Claim of No Weekend Deal Quickly Silenced
Muting those spiking the football on their "bold" call that there would be no deal this weekend.
AI Hallucinates Origin of ‘Sweet’ vs ‘Sour’ Oil
I know it's a stupid anecdote and AI will eat the world but I asked Claude if the original grading of sweet and sour for crude oil was based on its taste to humans. This is my response to...
Expect SPX Dip, Buying Puts at Current Levels
Saturday 3/28 SPX 6400. Expect a sizable dip on Monday and "Nothing but a buyer" Saturday 4/11. SPX 6820 buying puts last week at current levels . Just doing what we do. https://t.co/ZSOy0u6uI1
Hedge Funds' Short Covering Crushed Market as Retail Shifts
From the TFF which I much prefer to COT. The last month was clear. Long only asset managers do what they always do which is chase price. Through tuesday they were nothing but buyers and must have...
High‑Vol Straddle Offers Near
Dec 2028 SNDK straddles at 100 vol bid. That makes the premium of the 970 strike 970. Meaning stock has to go negative to lose on the downside. Obvi if like YTD the stock doubles your SOL....
Take a Break: Skip CPI, Play Golf
You know you don't have to write a 1000 word tweet or a new substack article on the CPI print right? Life has choices. Maybe go play or watch golf instead of jumping on the...
US Strikes Miss Core Iran Goals Despite Claimed Wins
Trying to keep score in an unbiased way. U.S. Military Accomplishments as far as I can tell. 1. Many dead old iranian leaders ✅ 2. Massive damage of navy ✅ 3. Massive damage of missile attack and defense infrastructure✅ Achievement of what...
Leveraged ETFs Trigger $18B Inelastic Buying
Classic all day stall. In aggregate 18BN got bought completely inelastically simply because leveraged ETF's rebalanced. Enough buy demand to sustain the gap.
FOMC Minutes Show Sharp RMO Cut,
FOMC minutes confirm substantial reduction in RMO in April and a reserve average expectation of 3TN. Probs still grow soma 20BN per month tho. Do the plumbers among us agree that they will full stop RMO's if a when...
Oil Prices Rise Despite Ceasefire Expectations
Thought I was a hero getting out of Dec oil yesterday after the ceasefire headlines. Nope. It's higher
23
23BN of inelastic buying keeping us in stall. Will it be enough to rip the close?
Short VIX Futures, Half‑Size SPX/NDX Put Spreads
Covered short in vix futures. Bought SPX and NDX put spreads at half max size. See you in a month.
Morning War and Oil Commentary Turns Especially Harsh
The war and oil takes before yesterday were bad but the takes this morning seem extra bad and particularly strident. https://t.co/EYFdUKg6uK
Iran Gains Strait Control, Better Deal, Yet Costs Lives
So we get the strait reopened with Iran controlling it and a toll. And Iran gets a much better deal than JCPOA. And it cost them the death of some old men and some destruction of some stuff. ...
Accepting Small Losses After Selling VIX Near Peak
Sold a little may vix futures near the high. Happy to lose 20 points on this.
High Volatility Overprices SPX Calls, Hedging Impossible
A three month 7250 SPX call costs 30. In two weeks if SPX is 6950 it will be worth 45-50. Vol is simply too high to hedge either direction.
Savings Surplus Flips to Spending Glut, Straining Builders
Real economy "builders" need money. They can source money from investors or consumers. Since Covid, investors and consumers had money from massive fiscal and monetary policy actions. Builders got all the money they needed from consumption plus more from...
Questioning Futures Curve: What Is True December WTI Expectation?
Assuming, as most of you seem to have massive confidence, that the futures curve is not a reflection of true market expectations of future spot. Current Dec Futures are 72.5 ish. What do you think the market expectations for...
Redemption Gates Unlock Real-World Liquidity Premium Returns
Gates. Some thoughts 101 ish Lying to investors and promising liquidity is bad Gates and limits on redemptions that are well disclosed and understood by investors is literally the value proposition. If an investment vehicle is subject to instantaneous full...
Oil Analysts' Warnings Ignored Until Supply Shocks Hit
Oil experts are an interesting breed of people. They are sorta like gold bugs. For long periods they sit in a distant corner of the financial markets. We pass by their desks and they nod at us...
Scored 8 in Globle with a 10.2 Average Guess Count
🌎 Apr 3, 2026 🌍 🔥 5 | Avg. Guesses: 10.2 🟧🟥🟥🟧🟨🟧🟥🟩 = 8 https://t.co/2fxbqb5gWc Enjoying this game #globle
Fed's Oversized Balance Sheet Undermines Inflation Goals
The essay from Lorie Logan is excellent. Unfortunately the tradeoffs of balance sheet size vs public good have been and continue to be mistakenly biased to narrow goals and miss the big picture which remains a failure of the...
Fed’s Reserve Policies Shield Wall Street, Fuel Inflation
It prevents fed funds cuts, props up Wall Street, props up inflation, all because the Repo Gang of Four won't deal with uneven distribution of reserves.
Buy NDX if SpaceX IPO Gets Canceled
Here's a simple signal that will work great. Buy NDX when SpaceX cancels its IPO. https://t.co/RUszD8xRxZ