MU's Future Upside Hinges on 2027 Earnings Delivery
Client asked me how high $MU can go. The answer is a lot higher or no higher at all. "That's the problem it has an 8 p/e relative to 2027 EPS and 4.7 P/S relative to 2027 forward revenue Otoh it has a a 89.75 p/e to trailing 2025 eps and a 21.919 p/s on trailing 2025 sales It's dirt cheap if they deliver and maintain a 98 eps in 2 years relative to an 8 eps last year or if they deliver and maintain 175BN in revenue in 2027 vs 37BN last year."
Equities Stagnant, Shift Focus to Rates, Gold, Oil
Update. All positions the same. Though i bought some more gold for beta DSAlpha up 90bp underperforming its target return by 350bp YTD. DSSmartbeta up 7% YTD outperfoming its 10% YoY target and set at 72% of risk...
NVDA Secures Cash, AMD Risks Free Chip Deals
The dichotomy between $NVDA and $AMD is fascinating $NVDA does a deal with $IREN where in order for IREN to pay full price for chips IREN has to also give away $750MN worth of warrants to NVDA Where $AMD has to...
Mocking Jeff: Buy Gold, Short The
So Jeff. Just buy gold and short the dollar bro. Cuz you have lost your mind https://t.co/N6gmcw3inN
Courts Block Section 122 Tariffs, Push Power to Congress
Section 122 tariffs which replaced the IEEPA tariffs have been struck down by the first court. Appeals court then Supreme Court is next (maybe one other lower court but not sure). These tariffs will expire in July 24th...
Canceling Buybacks Shifts Money From Share Demand to Real‑Economy Investment
I'm told focusing on the shift from share repurchase to capex is a "dumb argument" 101 It most certainly appears dumb if you don't understand the implication. Google cancelled its share repurchase from 60BN per year to zero to...
Leveraged ETFs Poised to Buy $16B, Fueling Upcoming Rally
Not surprisingly markets have been in a stall at highs all day. This is due to the fact that leveraged ETF's MUST buy 16BN to beat the close at current prices or less at lower prices or more at...
Non‑equity Bets Gain 80bp As
Despite a massive rip in stocks. short stocks, short back oil, long STIR, and a 1x2 Put spread in zb are up 80bp on the day.
Skipping Low-Rate Debt Terming Proved Costly
And NO terming out the debt when rates were low was NOT a good idea
Google, Not JPM, Powers S&P 500 Moves
Fwiw this JPM equity desk post is nonsense and anyone with half a brain would know that $GOOG is driving SPX here are the big drivers working on the whole 500 thanks @DanielSimonyi https://t.co/8BOjg7tN8n
Treasury Repo Investment Could Slightly Lower Rates
TGA invested in repo idea 101 A little tidbit in the weeds that will definetly get overblown by people on here Currently the treasury keeps its checking account with the Fed. Which because it's part of the consolidated balance sheet of...
QRA Unchanged as Treasury Sticks to Yellen‑style Bill Strategy
QRA no change in auction sizes, no change in language, @SecScottBessent continues to follow the Yellen playbook and rely on 20%+ bills outstanding to suppress interest rates. That said this was entirely expected
Undisclosed AMD Deal May Rebate Chips on Stock Surge
Have the precises terms and conditions of the Open Ai and $Meta deals with $AMD been disclosed. As far as I can tell the higher the share price goes the chips bought be these two go to zero in...
Blue Line Signals Urgent Need for Rate Cuts
Narrative status That blue dotted line needs rate cuts or coupon auction cuts SOON Following that purple line now 28 days. Dipping east south east https://t.co/mcOBDLMz1a
QRA's Pause Fuels Asset Rallies, Inflates Debt
The last time the QRA mattered we pivoted from short to long when Janet decided to stop increasing coupon issuance. Every QRA since has left issuance unchanged. Tomorrow will be no different. It's suppressed bond yields from going...
Credit Creation: Issuance Fuels Spending, Then Savings
A brief primer on credit and money creation and how issuance always becomes spending and then savings. It's a circle of life and the timing is what matters https://t.co/lWFuVh2MYC
Diversified Mix Outperforms SPY Without Leverage
In 2026 you haven't needed leverage to beat $SPY in fact even at 30% cash you matched $SPY. All you have needed is a diversified portfolio of 10% Gold, 10% Commodities, 25% Major Index Stocks, and 30% Nominal bonds...
Diversify with Gold and Commodities to Hedge Future Uncertainty
If you didn't own commodities and gold in your portfolio the last two years your portfolio missed the big moves in those assets which blew away SPX. GLD, TLT, GSG, and SPY are all gonna have shitty 10 year windows....
Bonds Under Fire, Yet Remain Reliable Anti‑Growth Asset
Man my feed is hating on bonds today. Bad takes everywhere "The death of" every portfolio that includes bonds story "Inflation B/E's" unanchored. "10 year returns on TLT" or "Global Fixed Income" negative "Why would you own bonds" Imho bonds are meh...
Hedging IBIT with MSTR to Target $83,999 BTC
Almost time to hedge up my long $IBIT with short $MSTR. Figure $STRC is almost full of dividends and will be sold at par allowing the common to breath from ATM and MNAv premium expand while the Strc selling...
Small Firms Can Justifiably Acquire Larger Ones via Debt‑equity Deals
I get why people want to hate on this douchebag. But imho it's totally reasonable for a small company to buy a much much larger company with debt and equity issuance. Anyone with even a few years of...
Bullish Technical Sentiment Drives SPY, QQQ Higher
This is an excellent description of the bullish technical sentiment in the markets today. Well worth reading if you have access or even the non paywalled part $SPY 720.76 $QQQ 675.15
Multiple Macro Forces Make Equities Irresistibly Bullish
Timeless and universal really bullish equity drivers 1. Companies don't need any money from capital markets and in fact are aggressive buyers of their own debt and equity. 2. Budget deficits are expanding YoY at a pace in excess of Nominal GDP...
Leveraged Treasuries Offer Minimal Return, Low Sharpe
With fixed pay legs of 10 Year swaps recieving 3.93% with swap spread at 43bp with Kim term premium at 65bp Leveraged bond buyers only get 23bp of expected return vs cash. This on a 5% vol item. Sharpe Ratio...
High EPS Growth Forecasts Often Precede Weak SPX Returns
These charts use consensus NTM Growth Rates and subsequent SPX Returns monthly going back to 1996 Current SPX EPS Growth Rate is 20% Purple Line Sample correlation is -21% Intuition to me makes sense that most of the time when growth rate expectations...
Aggressive 1x2 Put Spread Targets 5.75% Yield
Added a pretty big 1x2 put spread on ZB today. 84 days Max payout at 30 year yield of 5.20. B/e of 5.6 yield and will stop at 5.75 yield. Overheat mostly covered.
NTM Earnings Growth Soars 26.5% — Stocks May Be Undervalued
After the most recent earnings reports and guidance the NTM earnings growth expectations have skyrocketed to 26.5% YoY change. That's pretty unprecented in worlds that are NOT soon after a major earnings collapse. If we recognized half of...
Estimating May's Chances For
What is the probability of a bilateral agreement between to end the war between Iran and the U.S. being announced in May in your opinion
Big Money Prints Don't Guarantee Immediate Gold Gains
The point of this statement is massive money creation can cause inflation and asset gains. But owning assets expecting a "big print" isn't necessarily a great idea. The biggest print in history in 2021 and gold took 2...
M2 Growth May Have Followed, Not Fueled Economy
What if over the last 50 years M2 grew WITH the nominal economy and didn't CAUSE the growth of the nominal economy?
Fully Allocated Beta Beats SPY With Commodity Edge
YTD DSSmartBeta up 6.1% DSAlpha up 0.9% DSAlphaBeta up 7.0% SPY 5.74% Less risk more return. Works for me. Still sucks I bought puts at 6960 SPX cash. OOF. All forms of fully allocated beta are blowing away SPY. Without that massive...
Short Equity Puts Halve in Value, Risk Further Loss
My max short equity puts which expire in June and September which I paid 4% of AUM are now worth 2% of AUM. This position alone is down 2% of AUM. Whatcha gonna do. 2% further loss...
Daily Leveraged ETF Rebalance Generates $9B Buy, Offsetting Sales
The leveraged ETF rebalance flow which happens daily is a 9BN buy at this stage. It's likely fully offset and selling for multi asset rebalancing.
Pentwater Faces Potential Section 16b Insider Manipulation Drama
So is Pentwater fucked here. Section 16b and stock price manipulation by an insider is some serious shit. I know nothing except have dealt with section 16B a bunch also wonder if the sales sold are good...
Hammack, Logan’s Hawkish Dissent Fuels
Hammack and Logan dissenting on "additional" leans hawkish. What amazes me is these two are the architects of tapering, then ending QT, and with Perli flooding the system with RMO reserves. These two literally do not understand monetary...
Dissenters’ Reserve Flood Fuels Inflation, Not QT
Two of the three dissenters on the word "additional" are the same ones who stopped QT and flooded the banking system with RMO reserves. I really don't get the logic of Logan, Hammack, Musalem, and in the background...
SGAT Convertible at 8.625% Coupon Trades at 60
SGAT had a convertible bond back in the day that I had a big position in. I think it had an 8 5/8 coupon and trade at 60.
Unfilled FOMC Governor Seats Lose Voting Power
FOMC voting procedure geeks. Let's say Warsh is confirmed by June meeting and fills Miran's seat. Let's assume Powell resigns his governorship sometime before the meeting. Its possible that a new governor can be confirmed for Powell's...
Sell MSTR at 1.2‑1.3 MNAV, Buy BTC
Full pivot to $MSTR shares makes sense. MNAV at 1.2 -1.3 means sell the shares and buy BTC. Shareholders should "be like Mike" https://t.co/UfWg7gXZGg
Grant Williams at Risk—Enable 2FA Now
Grant Williams is the next account to be hacked. Turn on 2FA folks. Jeez. https://t.co/c6issUS2KE
Warsh Confirmation Sets Stage for June Budget
Now that Warsh is going to be confirmed. Assuming Powell resigns Governor that day. (as he should). Warsh will vote for a cut in June. Waller, Williams, Miran or someone like him & Bowman make 5 votes for...
Structured $100 Portfolio Guarantees Bounded Losses
I manage my wealth this way in general and I am positioned this way within this framework today 101 I take $100 of cash And invest in DSSmart Beta which is always long global stocks bonds, gold, and commodity indices. ...
Bearish Outlook
Me taking one look at Hyper-liquid SPX down 50bp. I'm max bearish but trading down on Hyperliquid based on some weekend Iran news is BULLISH. https://t.co/xj8d3X3HVV
Questioning Friday Put Purchases on SMH Amid Burry Debate
The dunking on @michaeljburry is funny and all but if your going to buy puts on $SMH isn't Friday a decent time vs any other time in history? Depending on the comments may have to join him https://t.co/0ul7RbjQo8
Analysts Forecast Capex Trends Ahead of Earnings
Preparing for earnings next week. Analyst expectations (mostly what the companies are saying) for capex https://t.co/zuLMi1j3YK
Leveraged ETF Rebalancing Drives $14B Inelastic Close Buying
Another stall day. At current prices 14BN of inelastic buying must occur on the close. This is heavily front run through the balance of the day. That flow is heavily tilted to NDX and Semis. It...
Pairing Short Oil with Short Stocks Beats Single Trades
Because people are narrow minded and can't think. Let me clarify. Also feel free to ask a question instead of asking your guru to explain in chats. I could be wrong of course but my view shouldn't have...
Oil Falls, Stocks Rise—Short Oil, Long Stock Puts
December oil down, stocks up. Short oil outright and long puts on stocks. It's okay. https://t.co/faxbvJLoZP
Massive Market, Super‑spring
My handle/business name was based on the model below Today The size of the market/economy M is extremely large K is super "springy" C is as dampening as I have ever seen in "normal" economic conditions X "bumps" are more impactful than normal...
Easy Policy Fuels Stock Rise, Then Yield Spike Crashes Markets
One of the popular narratives is from those focused on easy policy stance and persistent inflation. It follows the purple line. Higher stock prices with modestly higher yields driven by growth and inflation and then a capitulation by central...