Realizing the Strait of Hormuz's Strategic Importance
Thinking back to a few months ago when you had either never heard of or thought about the Strait of Hormuz in decades https://t.co/W8AMqVrYUw
Google's Past Skepticism Faded as Stock Rebounds
Good time to look back at the sentiment on $GOOGL at the low years ago. I'd note 200 WMA but also endless headlines about losing to ChatGPT et. There literally were people on CNBC saying they liked Mag-7 'except for...
Nailed Oil & Wheat Lows, Then Hormuz Closure Shock
Me scrolling twitter after nailing both the oil and wheat lows and then seeing the strait of Hormuz close (which wasn't even possible to be part of the narratives at the time) https://t.co/2y2yGNWZvz
Tuesday 9:43‑11:17 Gains Predict 74% Annual Rise
The last 6 times the market went up .38% on a Tuesday between the hours of 9:43 an 11:17 EST it finished the year up 74% on average, 168% of the time.
Endless Hype: Past Returns Don’t Guarantee Future Gains
Waking up and seeing 12 secular bull 100 year charts, 6 'here's what happens when you buy ath's' tables, and 3 'had you bought this stock 15 years ago and held it for this long you'd have 58M dollars' tweets...
Economic Hype vs Reality: Numbers Don’t Add Up
90 year old Senators CPI: 3+% Gold: 4.5K Truflation: Inflation is 1%. If gov says higher we predicted that too All Octanes: +$6.25 Food: *cena face meme* Jobs: Lol, lmao even Hormuz: 'who?' Tech stocks: Largest rally since before you were born Axios: 'Hearing rumors' https://t.co/VbAcW2q5Yr
Delegating My Thought Process to Claude AI
Me copy pasting everything I'd normally just read, think about, and contextualize over time into Claude https://t.co/WmWjlnVw82
Hormuz Closure Would Upend Global Finance and Economics
If they pull this off with the Strait of Hormuz closed for say 3+ months you can throw out everything you know about finance/economics https://t.co/nPZzQHiw9o
Ride Market Sentiment: Switch Greed and Fear Strategically
Be greedy when others are greedy. but also be fearful. when they get a bit fearful get more greedy. but only till they get greedy again. then get fearful. but right before getting fearful get extra greedy for about 6-12...
From Universal 2008‑style Volatility to No Spikes
We've gone from everything being '08 to nothing being '08 (or any variation of a single vol spike) https://t.co/FW7hAhiJdn
Tech Surges: Day 18 Outperforms Since 2009
Here's the magnitude of the tech outperformance on day 18 relative to past lows including '09 $ES_F $XLK https://t.co/H2qomw2O5h
Gasoline Breakout Proves Skeptics Right, Experts Wrong
Watching the 'strait is open told you so the experts were wrong again' people last Friday post the 'breakout' in Gasoline 6 days later https://t.co/GB8PhrUKTX
Transports Didn’t Surge After CAR Finally Cracked
Me showing the junior technician how transports were never really 'ripping higher' after after $CAR finally cracked. https://t.co/2U6YDgMbvZ
ES Futures Ten-Day Rally Shows Rare Upside Volatility
I remain painfully curious about all these, partly bc I can't recall this type of upside vol above the 50 WMA + experience wise this had ~4 of 10 V markers. Top 20 ten day $ES_F rally's, 1900-Today, depression excl. Added...
Mega‑caps Slide, Cuts Won’t Boost Broader Market
In fairness it was either this or a real recession post Covid. I would say w the mega caps now losing ground it's unlikely forcing more cuts would do much either at least in real terms. But it is semi amusing...
1990s Boom Stemmed From Tighter Money, Not Looser Rates
Me trying to explain to my nephew's friend that the 90's disinflationary/productivity 'boom' was underpinned in part by 'sounder' money and a 5+% FF funds rate, not the other way around (my nephew went upstairs to grab his shit for bball...
Market Rallies 3% Weekly Despite JPM Short Warning
When you short the market because JPM said to short the market as long as the strait is closed, see the market rally 3%+ for 3 weeks straight even though the strait never opened, and then see Pomp say stocks...
Past 3‑week Spikes Don’t Predict Future 30% Moves
Pomp/others using '82 + '20 as examples of 3 weeks up leading to 30+% moves, obv most don't need to see this to know (and N = 2) but just a very cursory trend/ta only perspective shows how overly simplistic...
MSTR Bounce Highlights Overvalued Price versus 200WMA
$MSTR bounce right in center of the zone. Low odds this plays out like last cycle, I'd just say when everyone was big braining 'btc yield', 10K hours of study et price was already 500% above the 200wma. ...
Experts' Oil Forecasts Miss Reality, Expecting $200 Spike
From '21 to '24 you were encouraged to predict Oil $300 every day, week, geopol dustup, or Saudi 'ouchies' headline In '26 if the price didn't instantly go to $200 on the initial break of 65 the 'experts' in every field...
Current Rally Mirrors 2015‑2016 Market Pattern
So you gotta zoom in to see the details but something about this move felt familiar I think my only real notes would be a 50 WMA test, 30+ Vix and a double digit V after a prior 90% rally....
Impro
So I doubt this runs but this was my most 'liked' tweet bc Ansem dunked on it a bit and then his followers piled on Odds way better now than then, more importantly know if you're getting crapped on a bit...
11 Consecutive Upside Days Confirm 200‑DMA Break
Haven't talked nearly enough about the 11 up-days or whatever coming off a clean break and 'confirmation' of the break of the 200 DMA $ES_F https://t.co/Zpw85DQaN9
Speculative
When you know if it were 2021 this entire internet would be calling for $600 dollar oil, jumping over each other to share Zoltan Pozsar latest note, and warning of a 'molecule crisis' every hour but you just can't...
Even After Global Adventures, Nothing Compares to This
I've travelled to 7 continents. I've eaten at the finest restaurants. I've sailed the oceans far and wide. I've safari'd in places no one knows exist. I've never seen anything like this.
Microsoft Dips Below 200‑week Moving Average
$MSFT after watching everyone on this website and CNBC point out it closed below its 200WMA https://t.co/3DCIxOHLVO
Pomp Dismisses CPI Data, Demands Immediate Fed Cut
CPI drops one tenth of 1% Pomp: Tariffs work, deflation is happening, the Fed needs to immediately cut to 0. CPI rises 6 tenths of a %. Pomp: 'The CPI is fake' https://t.co/xH6v2pB7Kh
Insiders Rake $762M in Minutes After Robinhood Hype
Robinhood traders watching DC insiders make 762M in three 5 minute candles after Vlad told them he was 'democratizing finance' with 24/7 trading, private venture access, and in game live betting. https://t.co/lYksJXY7VW
Stranded at Hormuz, VP Doubts Ghalibaf’s English
When you're on the 38th day stuck in a ship at the end of the Strait of Hormuz and hear the Vice President say he's not confident Ghalibaf understands english well. https://t.co/IgmUWg7p1i
Oil Drops Second‑largest Post‑war Single‑day Decline After Binance Launch
2nd largest post war single day decline in oil 48 hours after the Binance launch https://t.co/zDjlkN9OeP
From BTC Yield Hype to $5B Revenue Claims
"Strategy" going from pumping a 'BTC Yield' to saying $MSTR makes 500M a day to now claiming $STRC has generated 5B in cumulative revenue. https://t.co/1DLi9aDzEd
Oil's Relevance Sparks Split Opinions on Market Impact
People who think oil doesn't matter anymore and people who think the market should instantly crash from it https://t.co/phbDR1JL7l
Both Government and Private Sector Fabricate Inflation Metrics
"In America the government makes a fake inflation index and then the private sector makes up an even more faker one' https://t.co/qzfytmzG0V
Oversold Positions Drive Extreme Tail Moves in Markets
So this is not to say this setup isn't better than say September, but I can't think of a worse game to play without knowing the entirety of bounds 'Oversolds' and positioning often have their largest moves in the tails...
Gold Outperforms, Silver Spikes; Distinct Regimes Emerging
I'd say this is worth revisiting, not bc macro is end all but can't deny gold outperf for year +, then silver spike. Obv tail end was robinhood type but the ROC would have still triggered. Low N but uniquely...
WING Crashes 55% as Valuations Prove Misleading
2 years later, $WING down 55%, multiple down 75%, below covid levels. Not only does valuation obv matter, but if you want to better understand financial media and so on read the bull articles from back then. https://t.co/RpeTSVRgG2
200‑WMA Distance Trades: High‑risk, Low‑probability Longs
1 year later. 200 WMA distance stuff obv isn't always perfect but it's def one of the higher risk or say low probability longs that tend to occur when everyone gets bullish as well (crowd sorta can no longer deny it...
From China to Hormuz: Tracking Global Shipping Shifts
Monitoring shipping traffic coming out of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 after monitoring shipping traffic coming out of China in 2025 https://t.co/qJyOPVR3fM
After‑hours
Pop the open, flip it to a moderately outsized downside trend day, then run the first 5 min candle after hours back to the highs https://t.co/3ORrZGFux2
War-Driven Gold Sell‑off Followed by Ceasefire Rally
Start a war sell gold for 11 days in a row then rally it on rumors of a ceasefire https://t.co/6we9nz9Mhr
Insiders Trade Futures Pre‑open as Retail Bets Big on Kal
Insiders "trading" $CL_F and $ES_F 45 min before the open while retail places a 58 team parlay on Kalshi https://t.co/7RYeVzxZ3J
Predictor Misses ETH, Turns to ES_F 7700
Person who said $ETH 9K right before it dropped 50% now says $ES_F 7700 https://t.co/5spjzy9CBi
Gold Drops Despite Strong Technicals; Contrarian Wins
Unreal amount of why is gold down posts gold had more than doubled an was 100% above its 200 wma (highest since the 70's). Selling the news is not some big mystery. Keep in mind the largest returns came from...
Momentum Surged as Investors Chased Capex Stocks
True to form the momentum came out of these once everyone started searching for momentum stocks and the capex trade https://t.co/RSigVToqMT
Economic Pathways Already Narrow Before War, Shortages
For anyone following the GPT policy prescriptions I updated the macro with war, supply shortages and 200B in new spend. Nothing surprising here but I'd note that the pathways were already narrow 3+ months ago. https://t.co/bSw5ZWEnsD
Rare Unpredictable Catalyst Shakes Oil and Gold Markets
Months ago well before the war inside the oil thread there was this. At the time you simply cannot predict a catalyst let alone this one but the larger pt is odds and setups. $CL_F $GLD https://t.co/tdubAxcT6a
AUM Spike Fueled by Speculative Leveraged Stock Bets
Half hearted look at some cycle indicators, partly bc everyone is so zoomed in, partly bc bulls finally dropped. I'd just add that Long AUM spike was from everyone jumping into those garbage 1X and 2X quantum type single stock...
Gold, Silver Surge Validates Longs Amid Fed Confirmation
Basically gold and silver have been ramping for months and months and months while everyone cited Truflation and deflation being the risk, when it finally became undeniable by both the fed and fed funds futures, new longs wonder why they...
Musk's 'Easy
Me getting ready to catch a lecture about Kharg Island from someone who thought Musk was being aspirational about cutting 2T from the budget so he could 'easily' cut 1T https://t.co/QJ0KEG2k3B
Mag 7 Stocks Revert to 200‑WMA Amid RSI Diver
Seeing a lot of Mag 7 + $MSFT etc underperformance charts/comments out there Note we are now back at the 200 WMA. Not a rec, just highlighting not only the RSI divergence 6 mo ago but how the crowd tends to...