After‑hours
Pop the open, flip it to a moderately outsized downside trend day, then run the first 5 min candle after hours back to the highs https://t.co/3ORrZGFux2
War-Driven Gold Sell‑off Followed by Ceasefire Rally
Start a war sell gold for 11 days in a row then rally it on rumors of a ceasefire https://t.co/6we9nz9Mhr
Insiders Trade Futures Pre‑open as Retail Bets Big on Kal
Insiders "trading" $CL_F and $ES_F 45 min before the open while retail places a 58 team parlay on Kalshi https://t.co/7RYeVzxZ3J
Predictor Misses ETH, Turns to ES_F 7700
Person who said $ETH 9K right before it dropped 50% now says $ES_F 7700 https://t.co/5spjzy9CBi
Gold Drops Despite Strong Technicals; Contrarian Wins
Unreal amount of why is gold down posts gold had more than doubled an was 100% above its 200 wma (highest since the 70's). Selling the news is not some big mystery. Keep in mind the largest returns came from...
Momentum Surged as Investors Chased Capex Stocks
True to form the momentum came out of these once everyone started searching for momentum stocks and the capex trade https://t.co/RSigVToqMT
Economic Pathways Already Narrow Before War, Shortages
For anyone following the GPT policy prescriptions I updated the macro with war, supply shortages and 200B in new spend. Nothing surprising here but I'd note that the pathways were already narrow 3+ months ago. https://t.co/bSw5ZWEnsD
Rare Unpredictable Catalyst Shakes Oil and Gold Markets
Months ago well before the war inside the oil thread there was this. At the time you simply cannot predict a catalyst let alone this one but the larger pt is odds and setups. $CL_F $GLD https://t.co/tdubAxcT6a
AUM Spike Fueled by Speculative Leveraged Stock Bets
Half hearted look at some cycle indicators, partly bc everyone is so zoomed in, partly bc bulls finally dropped. I'd just add that Long AUM spike was from everyone jumping into those garbage 1X and 2X quantum type single stock...
Gold, Silver Surge Validates Longs Amid Fed Confirmation
Basically gold and silver have been ramping for months and months and months while everyone cited Truflation and deflation being the risk, when it finally became undeniable by both the fed and fed funds futures, new longs wonder why they...
Musk's 'Easy
Me getting ready to catch a lecture about Kharg Island from someone who thought Musk was being aspirational about cutting 2T from the budget so he could 'easily' cut 1T https://t.co/QJ0KEG2k3B
Mag 7 Stocks Revert to 200‑WMA Amid RSI Diver
Seeing a lot of Mag 7 + $MSFT etc underperformance charts/comments out there Note we are now back at the 200 WMA. Not a rec, just highlighting not only the RSI divergence 6 mo ago but how the crowd tends to...
Satirical Call for Extreme Market
Now build out a 6 month +-7% range, take Ethereum down 50%, kill the high beta trash, bomb Iran again but this time close the Strait of Hormuz, and then rally $ES_F twice in a row off the 200 dma....
Bitcoin Spikes in War, Crashes in Peace
$BTCUSD: -45% on no war $BTCUSD: +4.3% on war: The chaos hedge is working perfectly https://t.co/xUYlRbhtuw
Current ES_F
Not for nothing but any other time in say the last 8 years of Fintwit the current broadening $ES_F chart would have hundreds of 07-08 analogs on it.
Durable Moves Allow Either Repression or Disinflation, Not Both
Nothing new here, and cycles matter + drivers/duration, but I'd note in more durable moves you can repress or disinflate, but you can't do both. The room for repression is def far less, the durability and duration of the drivers in...
Weekly Macro TA Setup Beats Daily Oil Spike
Reiterating this remains one of my more favorite TA setups in macro. You could add the Oil setup to this but it was on the daily, the weekly I find the best given they take significant time to develop or the...
Claude Ignores Jokes, Sticks to Original Question
When you try to slide in a joke while 'conversing' with Claude only to have it respond w a one line answer to the original question https://t.co/rScgPSE3oT
Simple Crowd‑contrarian Setups with Defined Risk Levels
So there's no exact playbook for trading against the crowd but I try to share some decent probability setups and wanted to attach notes to them. 1 thing I'd say is it doesn't need to be super complex, but you do...
Silver Rally Driven by Speculation, Not Fundamentals
At the time this trade had zero catalysts other than $JPM calling for $30 and everyone chasing $Silver at 110+. It's never hwere the crowd is looking/chasing and if you study the thread there were months of absolutely nothing happening outside...
CEO Executes Double‑Digit Million Dollar Sales at Highs
What's interesting about this is those sales at the high's were also from the CEO and in the double digit M range. $TTD https://t.co/QSWxF4cpQX
Trade Against Crowd, Wait for Strong Risk‑Reward Setup
This is what trading against the crowd using behavior and sorta simple TA looks like I'd add to this the low in oil came as Silver was topping out too but more importantly is you can't predict the future vs waiting...
Significant XLF Selling Spike Mirrors $GS Trend
Related to the $GS post, subset of selling in XLF in the last 30 days. https://t.co/iuSWLKwbpm
